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数字技术对工作质量的风险：欧洲的劳资关系准备好迎接挑战了吗？（英）

信息技术2022-09-01布鲁盖尔研究所笑***

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This working paper examines the impact of digital technologies on job quality in Europe, using seven job quality domains as a framework. The authors find that the effects of new technology are ambivalent for all domains, with significant negative effects in three domains and a positive effect in one. The negative effects are enhanced in cases where there is below-median collective bargaining. The paper reviews regulations in several European countries and advances the hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes. The authors also consider the application of national and supra-national data protection legislation to the regulation of job quality. The paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay to a consideration of job quality more broadly.

WORKINGPAPER|ISSUE16/2022|22SEPTEMBER2022 RISKSTOJOBQUALITYFROMDIGITALTECHNOLOGIES:AREINDUSTRIALRELATIONSINEUROPEREADYFORTHECHALLENGE? JANINEBERG,FRANCISGREEN,LAURANURSKIANDDAVIDSPENCER WeexaminethejobqualityeffectsofnewdigitaltechnologiesinEurope,usingtheframeworkofsevenjobquality‘domains’:pay,workingtimequality,prospects,skillsanddiscretion,workintensity,socialenvironmentandphysicalenvironment.Thetheoreticaleffectsfromnewtechnologyareambivalentforalldomains.DataonrobotshocksmatchedtotheEuropeanWorkingConditionsSurveysfor2010and2015isusedtogenerateempiricalestimates,whichshowsignificantaggregatenegativeeffectsinthreedomains,andapositiveeffectinone.Somenegativeeffectsareenhancedwherethereisbelow-mediancollectivebargaining.Inlightoftheseanalyses,andinorder tothinkthroughthechallengeofregulatingthedevelopmentandimplementationofallformsofdigitaltechnologies,wereviewregulationsinseveralEuropeancountries. Drawingontheprinciplesofhuman-centreddesign,weadvancethegeneralhypothesisthatworkerparticipationisimportantforsecuringgoodjobqualityoutcomes,atboththeinnovationandadoptionstages.Wealsoconsidertheapplicationtotheregulationofjobqualityofnationalandsupra-nationaldataprotectionlegislation.Intheseways,thepaperextendsthedebateaboutthefutureofworkbeyondemploymentandpay,toaconsiderationofjobqualitymorebroadly. WearegratefultoMilenaNikolovaforhercommentsandhelpwiththispaper. AllauthorsbelongtotheExcellenceNetworkofstakeholdersatBruegel,throughitsprojectFutureofWorkandInclusiveGrowth.FrancisGreenacknowledgesfundingsupportfromtheUKResearchandInnovation,GrantES/W005271/1.DavidSpenceracknowledgesfundingsupportfromtheUKEconomicandSocialResearchCouncil,GrantES/S012532/1. JanineBergisaSeniorEconomistattheInternationalLabourOrganisation FrancisGreenisaProfessorofWorkandEducationEconomics,UniversityCollegeLondon LauraNurski(laura.nurski@bruegel.org)isaSeniorFellowatBruegel DavidSpencerisaProfessorofEconomicsandPoliticalEconomyatLeedsUniversity UniversityRecommendedcitation: Berg,J.,F.Green,L.NurskiandD.Spencer(2022)‘Riskstojobqualityfromdigitaltechnologies:areindustrialrelationsinEuropereadyforthechallenge?WorkingPaper16/2022,Bruegel 1Introduction Sincebeforethefirstindustrialrevolution,socialsciencehasconcerneditselfwiththerelationshipbetweennewtechnologiesandthetransformationofwork,withaccompanyinganxietiessurroundingthevolumeandqualityofwork(Mokyretal,2015).Morerecently,theriseofcomputerisation,ICTandtheinternetinthelatetwentiethcenturyhavebecomethefoundationinthetwenty-firstcenturyofthe‘FourthIndustrialRevolution’.Digitalautomationisthemaindrivingforce,usingartificialintelligence(AI)andmachinelearningtoenhanceprediction,andcapitalisingonthecollectionof‘bigdata’andtheexponentialgrowthofcomputingpower(Agrawaletal,2019;SpencerandSlater,2020). Therehasbeensubstantivedebateabouttheimplicationsoftheuseofnewdigitaltechnologiesforcurrentandfuturelabourdemandandwages.Thecharacterofdigitaltechnologiesisseenasimportantindeterminingtheiremploymenteffects(AcemogluandRestrepo,2019a,2019b).Technologythatislabour-savingwillleadtohigherunemploymentinparticularsectorsandindustries(the‘displacementeffect’)andlowerwages;suchadverseeffectsarepartofabroaderportfolioofsocietalrisks,includinggreaterinequalityandimpairedpoliticaldiscourse(Acemoglu,2021).Bycontrast,technologythatislabour-augmentingandproductivity-enhancing(the‘productivityeffect’)willaddtothenumberoftasksperformedbyworkersandwillstimulatenewjobcreation(the‘reinstatementeffect’),therebysupportinganeconomywithhighemploymentlevels.Manyandvariedforecastshavebeenmadeofhowtechnologicalchangewillinpracticeaffectemploymentgrowth,wagesandinequality(egFreyandOsborne,2013;GraetzandMichaels,2018;AcemogluandRestrepo,2020;Arntzetal,2016;Aksoyetal,2021).Yetforallscenariostheresponseproposedinthedominantnarrative–ledbyabroadrangeofconsultants,thinktanks,scholarsandinternationalorganisations–isthatdigitalautomationisbestmanagedbytheupskillingofworkers(SchlogiandPrainsack,2021). However,therehasbeenlittledebateon,orstudyof,theeffectsofnewtechnologiesonnon-wageaspectsofjobquality(Minetal,2021;Nurski,2021;Menonetal,2019;Smidsetal,2020).RobotsandAImightbeexpectedtoaffectbothextrinsicaspectsofjobqualitythatattachtothelabourcontract–suchasworkingtime–andintrinsicdomainsassociatedwiththeworkitself–suchasworkerautonomy.Suchpotentialeffectsaredistinctfrom,andmaybeonlylooselyrelatedto,wageratesthroughthecompetitivemechanismofcompensatingwagedifferentials.Thispaperinvestigatespotentialeffects,bothpositiveandnegative,ofnewdigitaltechnologiesinthecurrenteraforjobqualityinmultipledomains,andreviewsemergingregulatoryresponses. Giventhatalldomainsofjobqualityareimportantforworkerwell-beingandhealth(Eurofound,2019),thelackofdebateaboutnewtechnologyandjobqualityisperhapssurprising.Moreover,theissueisemergingrapidly,withwidespreadevidenceofrecentexpansionintheuseofdigitaltechnologies.Robotuse,forexample,rosesteadilyfromthemid-1990sintheUnitedStates,WesternEuropeandChina(AcemogluandRestrepo,2020;Chengetal,2019).The

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