聚酯产业链周度策略报告

!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 20220909 !"#$%&' !0!!#0$#0$ TA()*+, !"#$ 1&'()*+,-#$./0123456789:;<=>?@-AB?CDEFGfiI-ABJ&KL1MNOP-QR0STUVWXYZ?0[\]^_`1M45-ab0?cWXABdefghij,kl1mno1Mpq)rsF => tuvw0PTA(cxtyz[|0]uvw+~dÄLtuy|ÅÇÉ$0(cÑWZy0ÖÜáàcâäãå5%heç?@g01éèêë001-05nè200íì0TAîïñz->óòôöig(cõúaù2ûü0tu†°¢£§g9nw•09dÄ-¶ß®õúl©-AB0™´¨EÊäÆ|g NO (cPTAqØ`WXY?±-ím0¥ç94.89µh0æ±?±5.19%0ű?±9.84%gKLPXNOP-“Ø0TAWXYCDuLáØZû0º)¬æø8¿¡¬vƒgä΃«140µh»…L9n6 ¬vabg_`PXWXYCuLZû0¥ç76.39%0PXvwNÀʧ0fiPTA'(PEâÕLœ0¬æPX9noCôd–öV“”‘0’÷10npq?h0'(P-LœEÿŸz j⁄ ¤P-‹›fiǬv0fl‡fiL·‚„‰Â”-’]òôÁ80ËÈWXY83.7%íì0Ê9c9ã1.7%gÍÎFGäÏ?ãÓÔWXYöi-?@0ÍÎqØæ±?±2.2%0¬æÅÒEímÚÛ0ÔhÙöiklÚÛ-AB “Á 9noTAXı-±‹dSTTAòôˆiV“->ó0ºV“Ϙ[¯PX,˘˙TAWXY˚¸˝˛0ˇ!*§I-"#$ÜfegÍ]%&0PXCEV“’]0'(PX£§0PTA'(EâÕ-Lœ '( ¬æ)*+0PX0PTA,xtback-.g(c/012+$Ü@39045/60fiPTA'(P-LœŸzgPX®)*+-=>789yz0PXNxt:;9<-[|gPTA®2+-=èâ˜=310005gPTA458'(?@-\>ƒ0FG?@AEfiI-AB0[\`B2+=>-QR0PTAÓXC9ãDEEF08(cGHh(î10005/h)WIJ“g¬æKLTDPFGG˚MNeçø0O+FGP8J“-QRSBfe0PX-MX=èETU¬vtV FG ÚÛ&ÍÎ&WXY?:FG8`BaZh(cWI¿¡[vƒ EG()*+, !"#$ 1&NÀ\“-AB?0V“>óöixtJ&+,kl]^ABfiB_Ø-ím => (c`am1bcyï0ÎiMN0ºöi¢Ád0m1éè“e@–gJ NO (c`ahWXYij.lmnoj.lmp0qr`aWXYs1.1mn–m.jmp0tqr`aWXYlu.jmnov.impg`wxyz;<40µh&°[‚q30µh|L?cab0y]~595µh»…|xÄab@10n0xÅ)Ç70µh»…|L9n10 WIÉÑÖ[0’÷öi10~íìgÜáàÇ65µh»…±‹@5'íìg “Á ¬æâ`aCuLu–gnV“’]ƒ0äã+,_å“Áuu.gµh0æ±?±1J.smggnçâc`]^ímÊä0’÷B_Øéè0(c’÷B_ØWIMN0êuëí"hi]^ímêu0’÷B_ØJ1.jvµh0æ±ìÓij.sm '( Kîyï0)*+yz0$~ïyï0ñóyï FG ñón)*+òôpFGE!öfe0FG$eçø0ñõî45FGø8¿¡[vƒ0úåFGeçø -./012345 !"9#9$9#2$%&!"9#9$9#2$%& '(Brent)*+(,-/./ 87.78 94.16 (6.38) 23456)*+7-89/ 9600 9400 200.00 :;(CFR$<)*+(,-/9/ 624 670 (46.00) 23456=>7-89/ 266.3 256.43 9.87 PX PXCFRę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`a_bcFd/ 24.8 25.3 (0.50) \]MTO^_=>F-/9/ -917 -894.5 (22.50) UV_bcFd/ 52.61 47.22 5.39 EGCDE 48.7 48.7 0.00 /01678PTA9:;<=>?@ABCDEF68.85% ùû ü¬ hq; ú†q; E°q; ¢<AB £l 1 !"#$ 420 220 220 "efg8hij klm 200 200 n7#25$opqrstuvwxy !"%&' 660 330 330 8#23$zfg9hs8#31$[|]6-7hs9#6$~¨ÄÅ]8h klm[| 330 330 8#23$zfg9hs8#31$[|]6-7hs9#6$~¨ÄÅ]8h klm[| !"($ 600 225 225 n8#26$ÇÉopstuvwxy klmop 375 375 "efg8hijs|ÑÄÅÖ klm !")* 200 200 200 "efg8hij 2 +,#$ 1160 220 220 "eÜáfg 220 220 "eÜáfgskl9#àqr 220 220 n8#1$zopqrstuvwxy 250 250 2022â3#10$zopqrs"eÜáfg 250 250 7#2$opqrs7#ätus"eÜáfg 3 -.#$ 370 150 150 n8#2$opqrsn8#26$tu 220 220 9#15$ãåçopsn9#27$tus"eÜáfg 4 /)0#$ 450 150 150 n7#12$qrs)étusn8#15$èês|Ñ5hij 150 150 n7#12$qrs)étusn8#15$èês|Ñ5hij 150 150 n7#12$qrs)étusn8#15$èês|Ñ5hij 5 123$4567 100 100 100 ëíìîïn8#16$ñwóvopstuvwxy klmop 6 %89: 120 120 120 [|67.6%skln9#ÖòCôopqrs10#öòtusqrvwõ40Zij 7 ;<$= 100 35 35 6#13$úùopqrsn6#15$tu 65 65 kln9#7$Côqrskl9#27$tu >?@ABCD0EFGHIJKL /01678G2HIPX9:;<JK ùû ü¬ hq; ú†q; WXY ¢<AB 1 ûü:† 100 35 9h 65 9h 2 °¢£† 60 60 9h kl8#29$§gqrs•kqr3¶# 3 ߢ:† 60 60 - ®mops8#10$©™^_s"e|ÑÄÅÖ 4 ´¨:† 60 60 ∫C 5 Ö´:† 160 160 9h 8.3Côqrs8#11$étu 6 kØ:† 89 89 9h 7 ≥Ø:† 900 900 8.5h 8 Z±:† 38 8 9h 9#1$Côqrs•kqr¥µZ 30 9h 9 Ö†ã> 60 60 8h 10 ˘]>L 100 100 9h n'ê:;(ªº7æsø#öòCô|Ñ[]¿¡µhs•k¬—1¶# 11 ƒ‘†y 100 100 Üá 12 «»:† 22.5 22.5 ∫C 13 …»:† 100 25 Üá 75 ∫C 14  ÀÃÕ 140 70 8h n8#28$opqrsn9#6$©™tu 70 8h 15 Œœ:† 475 475 7.5h 16 Ö‘— 100 100 Üá 17 â“ 160 80 5h 80 5h 18 ¢”£† 160 100 Üá 60 - kl9#àopqrs•kqr15-28Zij 19 Ö¢(‘’£† 94 94 9h 20 Ö†÷’ 80 80 9h 21 ?ÿŸ⁄:† 100 100 5h 22 ¤’:† 75 75 Üá 23 ⁄ÿ:† 10 10 ∫C /01678HIMEG9:;<JK=>?@ ùû ü¬ hq; ¢<AB £l 1 Ö‹›fifl 30 4#18$‡·qr‚7#5$opqrs•k25Zij 2 Ö¢„‰ÂÊ 35 6#15$ijopqrs7#8$tu 3 ÁËÈ͆D 60 8#5$Côopqrs•kqr20Zij 4 ÎÏ:† 12 núùopstuvwxy 5 ߢ:† 38 6#18$nÌÓÔG‡·op klmop 6 MÒÚÛÙ 40 kl10#ıopqr 7 MÒÚˆ˜¯˘ 40 n8#22$opqrs"eqr˙˚s¸˝‡·étus\˛ˇ‡·klö!tu 8 "…´# 30 n8#26$opqrs"eqr˙˚se$—h ¿‡·étus•k&n12-15'©™Cp 9 ≥Ø():† 90 5#5$‡·opÂ*ç5#22$tu |Ñ+·¿hij 90 n7#17$opstuvwxys,‡·opõ -R\]ª/PE^_ 10 Ö:†01 28 8#25$Côopqrs•k,2qr¬—30Zij 11 ˆ3Z4 95 5Ö60S9‡·n8#19$opqrstuvw 67]10#Öòij 12 Ú8:† 70 kl9#10$Côopqrs•k¬—10Zij 13 °¢£† 65 1#65S9‡·|Ñö9]5hÇÉs2#80S9\˛ˇ‡·|Ñö9]55%ÇÉ >?@ABCD0EFGHIJKL /01678-./019:2022LM/NO ü¬q;nµhp÷§pq"EX•¶ß£l Ö:†kØ:†892022â6#:;‘— PXPTA MEG Ø<=>£†Ö¢(‘’˛Ê C=ˆDêF˛Ê/Œœ:†6#EFG˘LMKN OKPQ °¢£† TM,U ˆ3LV ÍWX=ˆ¯˘ÈØ:† ≥:†#3 =>:† TMKYÜCˆ¯˘ZMPQ†y ¢”£†MÒÚ[\ TM]^_"#†DTMP¯ 280 150 360 250 30 40 40 80 30 40 20 100 80 200 30 60 20 50 20 40 2022â10# 2022â12# 2022âQ1 2022â12# 2021 2021 2021-2022 2022Q1 2022Q2-Q3 2022Q2-Q3 2022Q3 2022Q3 2022Q3 2022Q3 2022âä2022âä2022âä2022âä2022âä2022âä :;‘— ˛?@AB† #H\˛ˇ#H