产品渠道长期积累，微逆需求爆发高成长

Highgrowthfromexplosivedemandofmicroinverterwithlong-termdedicationinproductandchannel Buy(Initiation) 25August2022 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk PricePerformance YunengTechCSI300 InvestmentThesis Asaleadingdomesticmanufacturerofmicroinverter,YunengfocusesonthefieldofModule-LevelPowerElectronics(MLPE).Establishedin2010,Yunengintroduceditsfirstmicroinverterproductin2011,andkeepsiterating,updating,andexpandingitsproductmatrix.Itsmicroinvertersthathandlefouroreightmodulesarehighlyrecognizedintheindustry,thankstotheirstate-of-the-artefficiencyperformance.Yunengfurtherintroducedrapidshutdowndevices(RSD)in2019andresidentialenergystorageproductsin2021,fullycoveringallareasofMLPE.In2021,Yunengmademicroinvertershipmentsof418,800units(about461MW),withaglobalmarketshareof9.48%(74.52%forEnphase,11.65%forHoymiles),rankingthirdintheworld.Yuneng’srevenueofmicroinvertersgrewtoRmb512mnin2021,rankingsecondintheindustryandonlylowerthanEnphase.ItsGPandNPmarginimprovedto40.21%and17.71%in1Q22,thankstoproductiterationsandescalatingscales.YunengexpectsnetprofitofRmb84-94mnin2Q22,withYoYgrowthof273%-317%andQoQgrowthof173%-206%. Toseizethegreatgrowthpotentialofdistributedsolarandmicroinverter,domesticmanufacturersacceleratethepaceofexportsubstitution.Mainlyusedindistributedsolarpowergeneration,microinverterbenefitsfromthefastgrowthofdistributedsolararoundtheworld.Weexpectglobaldistributedsolarinstallationtoreach249GWin2025,accountingfor48.5%oftotalnewsolarinstallation.Weprojecttheglobalpenetrationrateofmicroinvertertoincreasefrom7.2%in2021to14%in2025,anddemandofmicroinverterinstallationtoreach34.9GWin2025,implyingaCAGRof63.7%,thanksto:1)moreprominentadvantagesofmicroinverterinlow-voltagesafetyandpowergenerationgainunderhigherelectricityprice,2)narrowedcostgapbetweenstringinverterandnewmicroinvertersthathandlefouroreightmodules,3)shortageofIGBTchips,4)escalatingdemandformicroinvertersintheU.S.,EuropeandLatinAmericamarket.WithcomparableefficiencyperformancetoEnphase,widerpowerphasecoverage,andhigherquality-priceratio,domesticinvertermanufacturersshouldenjoyagrowthratemuchhigherthantheindustrybyseizingthechanceofexportsubstitution. Excellentperformance,multiplelayoutsofproductmatrix,heavyinvestmentinR&Dandmarketing,andasset-lightbusinessmodeltogetherdriveYuneng'srapidgrowth.1)Superiorperformanceofthelatestintroducedmicroinverters,concurrentdevelopmentofmicroinverter,energystorageandRSD.Yuneng'smicroinvertersthathandlefouroreightmodulesprovetobeaheadofcompetitorsinpowerdensityandperformance,leadingtoanaccelerationofshipmentpenetration.Meanwhile,weexpectitsRSDbusinesstocatchupwithgloballeadersandenergystoragebusinesstoaccelerateexpansion.2)GlobalfootprintandhighgrowthofshipmentsfromEuropeandU.S.In1H21,Yuneng'sshipmentinnorthAmericaandEuropeaccountedfor40%+and25%+oftotalrevenue.Yuneng'svisionarylayoutinhigh-endmarketandongoingdevelopmentofglobalsalesnetworkwillleadtoasteadyimprovementofitsglobalmarketshare.ByMarch2022,Yunenghas92distributorsand412installers.3)HeavyinvestmentinR&Dandmarketingwithasset-lightbusinessmodelhelptomeetfast-growingmarketdemand.ToallocatethefundraisedfromIPO,YunengwilluseRmb272mnforR&DcenterconstructiontoenhanceR&Dstrengthandconsolidatetechnicaladvantages,andRmb83mnforglobalsalesnetworkdevelopmenttoexpandglobalfootprintandstrengthenbrandimage.Currently,theshareofitsR&Dpersonnelhasreached48.6%by2021.Yuneng'soutsourcingmodelisasset-lightandenablesittoquicklyadapttothefast-growingmarketdemand. EarningsForecast&Rating:WemodelrevenueofRmb1.358/2.614/4.367bnandnetprofitofRmb0.360/0.757/1.249bnin2022-2024,withEPSofRmb4.50/9.33/15.61.WeinitiatewithaBuyratingandPTofRmb466.88(P/Eat50xin2023). Risks:Intensifiedcompetition;lower-than-expectedoverseasexpansion;highvolatilityofnewlylistedshares. 32% Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 665 1,358 2,614 4,367 Growth(YoY%) 36% 104% 93% 67% Netprofit(RMBmn) 103 360 747 1,249 Growth(YoY%) 34% 250% 107% 67% EPS(RMB) 1.29 4.50 9.33 15.61 P/E(X)308.04 88.09 42.46 25.38 27% 22% 17% 12% 7% 2% -3% -8% -13% -18% 2022/06/082022/06/122022/06/162022/06/20 MarketData Closingprice(RMB)386.00 52-weekRange(RMB)290.10/386.00P/B(X)71.86 MarketCap(RMBmn)30,880.00 BasicData BVPS(RMB)5.37 Liabilities/assets(%)56.85 TotalIssuedShares(mn)80.00 Sharesoutstanding(mn)18.24 Relatedreports SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularits employeesDuohongZeng(曾朵红),YaoChen(陈瑶)andYananGuo(郭亚男). 1/35 东吴证券（香港） 产品渠道长期积累，微逆需求爆发高成长 买入（首次） 2022年8月25日 证券分析师 陈睿彬 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 股价走势 昱能科技沪深300 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 665 1,358 2,614 4,367 同比 36% 104% 93% 67% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 103 360 747 1,249 同比 34% 250% 107% 67% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 1.29 4.50 9.33 15.61 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 308.04 88.09 42.46 25.38 投资要点 国产微逆领先厂商，持续耕耘组件级电力电子领域：公司成立于2010年，2011年推出首款微逆产品，以微逆为核心不断迭代更新，拓展产品矩阵，一拖四、一拖八产品行业认可度高，功率性能居全球领先，并在2019年、 2021年推出关断器及户用储能产品，全面布局组件级电力