精耕细作时代，论美团的模式韧性与空间

Resilience&prospectofMeituan'sbusinessmodel,intheeraofintensiveandmeticulousexecutionBuy(Maintain) Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024E Revenue(RMBmn)179,128228,546288,768337,702 Growth(YoY%)56%28%26%17% -15,574 -8,402 7,474 15,060Pri cePerformance - - - 102% Non-GAAPNetprofit(RMBmn)Growth(YoY%) Non-GAAPEPS(RMB)-2.55-1.361.212.44 P/E(X)--13969 InvestmentThesis TheinflectionofregulatoryresetinChina'sinternetsectorhasbeenclearsince2022.Amongallcompanieswhosevaluationsawaitingtobeupgraded,wefavorMeituanforitsstrongerresiliencefromrobustcorebusinesstooffsetheadwindsandvisiblegrowth 5% -2% -9% -16% -23% -30% -37% -44% -51% -58% -65% 3August2022 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk MeituanHSI potential.TofullyrevealMeituan'svalue,thisreportattemptstoanswertwofrequentlyraisedquestions:1)WhyMeituanisbarelychallengedbynewcompetitorsandismoreresilientafterbecomingleadingcompanyofservicee-commerce,whiletheconventionale-commercemarketcanstillbedisturbedbynewentrants?WillMeituanbethreatenedbynewplayersinthefuture?2)HowlargeisthegrowthpotentialofMeituan'scorebusiness? Resilience:differentinformationandlogisticscharacteristicsleadtodifferentlevelsofresilienceforleadingcompaniesbetweenservicee-commerceandconventionale-commercemarket.1)Informationflow:significantdifferencesintheattributesoftransmittedinformation.Serviceinformationishardertocollectthanproductinformationasit’smorenon-standardandregional,andthiswillbringnotablefirst-moveradvantageanduserexclusivitytoservicee-commercefirmsundertheUGCmode.Meanwhile,asconsumersarepronetomakeimmediatepurchaseafterreceivingtheinformation,leadersinconventionale-commercearemorevulnerabletotheimpactofcontentdistributionplatforms.Retentionrateoflong-tailmerchantsisalsodifferentgivendifferentmagnitudeandchannelwidthofinformation.2)Logistics:conventionale-commerceincreasesproductvaluebyexposingcustomerswithmorediversifiedandcheaperproducts,whileservicee-commerceincreasestimevaluebysavingcustomers'time,andcorrelationmagnitudesfortheseimpactsinfluencethecontributioncoefficienttotheplatformeffect.Sincelogisticsqualityisdirectlylinkedtoplatformeffectofservicee-commerce,leadingcompanies'distributionadvantagesandflywheeleffectwillbemoresignificant.Inthelongrun,valueincrementintimeismoreirreplaceablethanproduct.Duetothetwodiscrepanciesabove,leadersinservicee-commerceenjoyamorestablecompetitivelandscape,aswellasamoreevidentlong-cycleattributeandlong-lastingreleaseofvalue.Sinceboundarybetweentheseplatformsbecomeslessclear,weseegreatgrowthpotentialinMeituan'sintra-cityretailmarketgivenitscapacitytoreplicateresourceinthisfield. Growth:hugepotentialforserviceconsumption.1)FD:withgrowingunderdevelopedmarkets,theformingofconsumerawarenessandincreaseofsupplywillfurtherreleasepotentialofFD.RiseofexperienceeconomyandemotionalvaluewillalsopushupbothASPandtheshareofconsumerdiscretionary.WeseepotentialofRmb1.76-2.09trillionforonlineFDmarketin2025.WebelieveMeituan’sgoalofninetymilliondailyordervolume,withUEofRmb1/orderisachievableundertheongoingreleaseofplatformeffect. 2)ISTH:proportionofdomesticserviceconsumptionshouldcontinuetoincrease.WeseeturnoverofRmb4trillionforISTHindustry,andimmensepotentialforMeituan.Equippedwithfourkeyadvantages,Meituanshouldfurtherincreasemarketsharewhilebenefitingfromindustrygrowth,enjoyinganexcessreturn.Withenhancingplatformeffect,itsvalueininformationtransmissionshouldfurthermanifest,leadingtoahigherAdmonetizationrate.WebelieveISTHwillcontributesteadyandincreasingcashflowtoMeituan. "Retail+Technology":thenextvastuniverse.Oct2021,Meituanadjusteditsstrategyfrom"Food+Platform"to"Retail+Technology".ThenewretailbusinessbringssecularstrategicvalueandpotentialforvaluationupgradeasMeituanexpandsuserstructureandcultivatesuserhabits.Increasinginvestmentinscienceandtechnologyisconsistentwiththeindustrydevelopmenttrend,corporateresponsibility,andenterprisecompetitivenessimprovement.Thebenefitmaynotbereflectedonthefinancialreportsintheshortormediumterm,butwebelievethelatenteffectonMeituan'secologicalboundaryexpansionandbusinessmodeloptimizationissignificantandwillmanifestinthefuture. EarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintainAdj.EPSforecastat-1.4/1.2/2.4Rmbin2022-2024,withP/Eat139x/69xin2023/2024.WemaintainBuyratingaswefavorMeituan’sbusinessresilienceandseculargrowthpotential. Risks:risingridercosts;potentiallossinnewinitiatives;pandemicresurgence. 2021/06/072021/10/062022/02/042022/06/05 MarketData Closingprice(HKD)198.10 52-weekRange(HKD)103.50/242.40P/B(X)8.20 MarketCap(HKDmn)1,090,639.88 BasicData BVPS(RMB)24.16 Liabilities/assets(%)47.55 TotalIssuedShares(mn)6,183.75Sharesoutstanding(mn)5,505.50 Relatedreports 《美团-W(03690.HK:)：2022Q1 财报点评：短期逆风中加修内功零售业务迈入高质量增长》 2022-06-03 《美团-W(03690.HK:)：行业巨头复盘系列1-美团篇：长期有耐心平台价值持续释放》 2022-05-17 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularits employeesLiangweiZhang(张良卫) andLuluZhou(夏路路). 1/37 东吴证券（香港） 精耕细作时代，论美团的模式韧性与空间 买入