全市场估值与行业比较观察

2021/04/06申港证券全市场估值与行业比较观察-20210406期申港证券研究所分析师曲一平SAC执业证书编号：S1660521020001quyiping@shgsec.com 资料来源：WIND，申港证券研究所摘要•全球主要指数PE方面，万得全APE为21.8较上期变化0%，上证指数PE为15.4较上期变化0.1%，深证成指PE为30.4较上期变化-1.2%，恒生指数PE为14.5较上期变化-2.6%，标普500PE为40.8较上期变化-1.3%，创业板指PE为61.9较上期变化-3.2%。•本周A股风格估值有所提升，金融风格PE8.62，估值比上期增加0.8%；周期风格PE为29.8，比上期下降1.1%；消费风格PE为42.3，比上期下降3.9%；成长风格PE为77.3，比上期下降2.4%；稳定风格PE为14.74，比上期上升1%。•根据2020年WIND一致预期营收，则是疫情后从必选消费的农林牧渔和中游工业品领域国防军工、机械设备、电气设备、轻工制造呈现高度景气。•根据2020年WIND一致预期净利润，本轮的复苏中利润增速靠前的分别是有色、采掘、化工上中游原材料和中游工业品的机械、国防、电气设备利润率先恢复，并且贯穿着着农林牧渔、综合等必选消费的强复苏。•大中盘轮动方面，上证50比中证500比价从1.035上升至1.046还在历史高位，大盘投资风格强于中盘。•大小盘轮动方面，沪深300与国证2000比价从2月中旬历史高点0.65迅速回落，从上周0.537上升至本周0.55，整体大盘强于小盘，但小盘股迎来缓和期。•目前申万一级行业中，估值最高的分别是休闲、食品饮料、家用电器、交运等板块，最低的是房地产、农林牧渔、通信、建筑装饰等板块。•万得全A股息率为1.45%,十年期国债收益率-万得全A股息率为1.77%，和警戒值2.5%（过去牛市最高点）的距离从上周83bp保持不变。上证50股息率为2.44%,十年期国债收益率-上证50股息率为0.77%，和警戒值1.1%（过去牛市最高点）的距离从上周40bp下降为33bp。沪深300股息率为1.94%,十年期国债收益率-沪深300股息率为1.27%，和警戒值1.8%（过去牛市最高点）的距离从上周58bp变为53bp。中证500股息率为1.218%,十年期国债收益率-中证500股息率为2%，和警戒值3%（过去牛市最高点）距离从上周的103bp变为100bp。 资料来源：WIND，申港证券研究所1.1全球主要指数PE估值•全球主要指数PE方面，万得全APE为21.8较上期变化0%，上证指数PE为15.4较上期变化0.1%，深证成指PE为30.4较上期变化-1.2%，恒生指数PE为14.5较上期变化-2.6%，标普500PE为40.8较上期变化-1.3%，创业板指PE为61.9较上期变化-3.2%。0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.02010-12-12011-3-12011-6-12011-9-12011-12-12012-3-12012-6-12012-9-12012-12-12013-3-12013-6-12013-9-12013-12-12014-3-12014-6-12014-9-12014-12-12015-3-12015-6-12015-9-12015-12-12016-3-12016-6-12016-9-12016-12-12017-3-12017-6-12017-9-12017-12-12018-3-12018-6-12018-9-12018-12-12019-3-12019-6-12019-9-12019-12-12020-3-12020-6-12020-9-12020-12-12021-3-12010-12-312011-12-302012-12-312013-12-312014-12-312015-12-312016-12-302017-12-292018-12-282019-12-312020-12-312021-3-302021-4-6万得全PE20.112.913.912.417.423.221.419.513.117.523.321.821.8上证指数PE16.711.011.79.714.216.515.815.611.013.116.115.415.4深证成指PE21.715.316.614.018.837.330.527.616.324.432.230.130.4恒生指数PE13.38.410.99.39.38.811.112.89.510.215.614.214.5标普500PE15.413.815.518.618.821.623.724.818.824.037.040.340.8创业板指PE70.736.934.658.456.371.842.441.327.949.964.460.061.9全球主要指数PE 资料来源：WIND，申港证券研究所1.2A股风格指数PE•本周A股风格估值有所提升，金融风格PE8.62，估值比上期增加0.8%；周期风格PE为29.8，比上期下降1.1%；消费风格PE为42.3，比上期下降3.9%；成长风格PE为77.3，比上期下降2.4%；稳定风格PE为14.74，比上期上升1%。020406080100120中信风格指数PE金融(风格.中信)周期(风格.中信)消费(风格.中信)成长(风格.中信)稳定(风格.中信) 资料来源：WIND，申港证券研究所1.3 申万一级行业营收同比增速 2015-3-312015-6-302015-9-302015-12-312016-3-312016-6-302016-9-302016-12-312017-3-312017-6-302017-9-302017-12-312018-3-312018-6-302018-9-302018-12-312019-3-312019-6-302019-9-302019-12-312020-3-312020-6-302020-9-302020/12/31（WIND一致预期）上游原材料有色金属-3.67.1-1.6-8.7-2.3-1.711.133.235.623.718.6-1.015.15.50.015.96.69.619.08.48.018.415.514.1采掘-23.3-24.5-27.3-19.5-13.6-17.12.516.348.735.921.713.08.014.519.415.89.68.43.28.9-11.1-19.9-12.0-16.5中游原材料化工-19.0-14.5-25.7-23.6-7.7-8.61.829.845.929.526.314.710.518.228.926.814.612.2-2.3-6.7-17.9-23.0-15.9-11.4公用事业0.0-4.4-2.93.5-4.22.87.34.420.913.722.217.417.319.210.413.416.610.714.213.8-10.43.23.410.5钢铁-17.4-26.5-28.7-30.8-20.45.822.039.775.540.141.417.21.118.213.019.45.20.84.55.6-1.32.42.44.3中游工业品轻工制造6.15.34.29.07.07.78.825.817.419.832.223.920.922.68.50.0-0.1-2.65.012.2-15.20.412.014.4交通运输3.20.54.26.95.512.19.336.057.060.850.830.615.111.019.314.010.77.68.112.4-12.4-4.13.3-0.7建筑装饰11.6-0.82.59.64.94.85.38.55.113.711.88.114.48.35.813.313.818.116.115.2-9.017.622.213.0建筑材料-10.7-11.2-6.6-3.23.010.14.730.331.732.032.844.229.626.530.729.029.824.715.03.6-23.814.818.210.4机械设备-1.814.22.020.611.9-10.05.838.217.428.629.019.624.122.410.215.818.13.89.711.5-11.122.723.411.1国防军工13.03.77.74.84.2-8.0-2.726.310.22.95.34.0-0.120.815.0-2.914.00.9-3.410.43.514.226.711.8电气设备5.16.46.423.618.315.66.210.41.619.223.913.122.016.26.75.213.62.112.619.5-10.819.924.622.9下游消费品汽车3.52.11.019.011.615.726.322.914.918.518.114.013.710.9-1.9-10.4-7.7-10.1-1.69.8-29.611.419.02.1家用电器4.9-5.2-5.8-10.40.35.320.526.030.538.128.323.319.415.29.99.25.66.03.01.9-24.3-0.213.42.0房地产-0.766.142.134.9111.714.931.022.910.82.80.813.721.527.235.111.322.422.718.917.4-3.27.214.611.0休闲服务9.621.721.66.019.924.617.830.040.828.328.531.224.232.420.614.723.2-6.3-5.61.8-48.5-42.0-25.6-29.0医药生物14.841.013.118.413.714.714.226.417.121.721.215.524.618.023.514.116.114.710.59.8-7.73.810.49.6综合-15.3-8.220.530.341.132.621.232.427.848.417.329.723.12.912.813.228.110.92.7-4.1-7.77.55.82.1食品饮料7.11.97.32.111.17.05.422.113.912.922.411.516.716.29.023.216.015.113.816.70.013.311.313.0商业贸易-4.7-1.610.523.110.714.31.619.420.428.628.614.710.27.810.82.47.16.43.72.1-12.91.77.3-0.7农林牧渔-2.73.0-1.6-1.0-1.34.623.633.744.513.112.55.88.67.811.216.910.417.116.621.718.227.434.760.5纺织服装4.213.55.316.012.415.218.231.99.216.719.017.816.512.01.19.63.3-2.82.189.6-7.320.4-8.9-22.7TMT通信1.26.011.09.95.88.94.61.04.26.16.19.412.7-0.43.72.0-0.50.60.0-1.6-9.57.77.84.7计算机10.110.311.022.715.520.313.815.52.46.74.02.828.124.622.96.214.9-0.28.813.0-13.715.34.59.0电子24.722.723.220.917.121.333.546.351.145.133.724.314.515.020.318.619.813.36.65.5-0.59.910.211.0传媒34.865.653.841.141.819.527.823.023.49.110.87.68.414.617.2-0.74.6-0.22.612.9