食品饮料行业周报：稳中求胜
规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·科创板询价报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告 市场表现 本周行情回顾：本周各大指数都有较大涨幅，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为+4.27%、+5.93%、+5.92%和+4.67%。申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为电子、国防军工和休闲服务，涨跌幅为+11.44%、+10.90%和+9.18%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是医药生物、建筑材料厂和家用电器，分别为+1.03%、+2.82%和+2.86%。食品饮料板块上涨4.19个百分点，跑输沪深300指数0.48个百分点，列第十七位。绝大多数子板块都实现了正收益，涨跌幅排名前三的分别是肉制品（+7.59%），其他酒类（+4.69%）和食品综合（+3.63%）。 行业及上市公司信息回顾：2020年啤酒行业几大趋势；黄酒需求疲软，2020年的黄酒市场能否开疆拓土；苏格兰威士忌去年逆势出口创纪录；两项白酒团体新标准今年4月1日起实施；喜力换帅，销量增长创十年来最好水平；遭关税冲击，美国从法国进口的葡萄酒大幅减少；苏宁旗下日本百货品牌拟向中国引入百种日本酒；五粮液与京东战略合作再升级，共同推动白酒供应链数字化；华致酒行2019年净利润同比增长41.23% 。 本周观点：总体来看食品饮料板块表现相对较弱。突如其来的疫情对社会经济造成了巨大的影响，最大的打击莫过于是切断了“社交”，光是春节档7天经济损失预估就超过了一万亿元，酒业更是被打乱了发展惯性、周期节奏以及竞争关系等，不少经销商和酒企甚至评估全年销售目标将受到40-50%的影响。我们现在仍处于疫情阶段，一旦等到生活恢复正常，消费的补偿性大爆发期就会到来，消费呈井喷式爆发。建议关注一线白酒龙头、次高端白酒、高端啤酒、休闲食品、速冻食品、复合调味发酵品等细分子行业以及此类行业中极具代表性的上市公司，如贵州茅台、五粮液、古井贡酒、今世缘、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、好想你、三全食品、天味食品等。 风险提示：新冠疫情导致消费增速不达预期、行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题等。 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 指数表现（最近一年） 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 4.27 -2.12 21.50 深证成指 5.93 3.54 58.97 创业板指 5.92 10.32 74.87 沪深300 4.67 -0.98 37.67 SW食品饮料 4.19 -2.42 68.23 SW饮料制造 3.87 -2.52 84.89 SW食品加工 4.95 -2.18 38.53 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：万蓉 执业证书编号：S1050511020001 电话：021-54967577 邮箱：wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 0%10%20%30%40%50%食品饮料(申万)沪深3002020年2月21日 食品饮料 稳中求胜—食品饮料行业周报（0214-0220） 行业评级：增持 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 华鑫证券·行业周报 目录 1. 市场行情回顾 .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1本周SW食品饮料跑输沪深300指数 ·················································································································· 3 1.2本周SW食品饮料各子板块表现 ·························································································································· 3 1.3 2019年初至今SW食品饮料指数排名第三 ·········································································································· 4 1.4 估值回到历史中位水平 ········································································································································· 5 2. 行业及公司动态回顾.................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 2020年啤酒行业几大趋势 ····································································································································· 5 2.2 黄酒需求疲软，2020年的黄酒市场能否开疆拓土？ ························································································ 6 2.3 苏格兰威士忌去年逆势出口创纪录 ····················································································································· 7 2.4 两项白酒团体新标准今年4月1日起实施 ········································································································· 7 2.5 喜力换帅，销量增长创十年来最好水平 ············································································································· 8 2.6 遭关税冲击，美国从法国进口的葡萄酒大幅减少 ····························································································· 8 2.7 苏宁旗下日本百货品牌拟向中国引入百种日本酒 ····························································································· 8 2.8 五粮液与京东战略合作再升级，共同推动白酒供应链数字化 ·········································································· 8 2.9 华致酒行2019年净利润同比增长41.23% ·········································································································· 9 3. 本周观点....................................................................................................................................................................... 9 4. 风险提示..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 图表1：本周SW一级行业指数排名（单位：%） ··································································································· 3 图表2：本周SW食品饮料各子板块排名（单位：%） ··························································································· 4 图表3：2019年初至今SW一级行业排名（%） ······································································································ 4 图表4：2019年初至今SW食品饮料各子行业排名（%） ······················································································ 4 图表5：SW一级行业估值水平（单位：倍） ··········································································································· 5 图表6：SW食品饮料静态估值（PE/TTM） ·············································································································· 5 图表7：一号店白酒价格（单位：元） ··················································································································· 10 图表8：京东白酒价格（单位：元） ······················································································································· 10 规范、专业、创新
