需求改善仍需时间，行业分化或不断加剧
规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·个股深度报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现 上周行情回顾：上周沪深300下跌0.55%，汽车板块上涨0.95%，涨幅位列申万一级行业第10，跑赢沪深300指数1.5个百分点；其中，汽车整车板块上涨1.45%，汽车零部件板块上涨0.68%，汽车服务板块上涨1.17%。 上市公司信息回顾：长安出售标致雪铁龙50%股权；2020年智能网联汽车渗透率将达到51.6%；LG化学将投入23亿美元造电池等。 本周行业观点：根据乘联会发布的数据，11月第三周国内乘用车日均零售量为4.9万台，同比下降19%，表现较第二周持平，但较去年同期下滑显著。11月前三周日均零售量为4.1万台，同比下滑15%，需求端改善程度较弱。第三周日均批发销量为5.7万台，同比下降9%，下滑幅度虽然在收窄，但批发端销量目前大于零售端，体现出行业库存正在增加，消费疲弱的现象未见改善。从目前周度高频数据看，国内乘用车市场销售乏力的问题仍在消费端。我们认为，未来若没有实质性刺激政策的出台，行业出现显著反转的几率较小，需求端将整体呈现弱复苏格局。在此背景下，行业分化的局面会不断持续，强势企业的竞争力有望不断强化。 投资建议：对于行业投资逻辑，我们始终认为，未来我国汽车行业的竞争将不断加剧，唯有具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业有能力持续受益，结构性机会将是长期关注重点。在当前时点，汽车行业正面临整体盈利周期的低点，未来随着国内宏观经济的逐步企稳，汽车行业大概率出现结构性复苏。从投资角度而言，建议始终从短期弹性、中长期价值成长和新兴增量空间三个角度出发关注相关投资机会。从短期弹性角度看，建议关注目前业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，依旧建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业上汽集团、华域汽车、星宇股份。从新兴增量空间角度看，特斯拉国产无疑为国内相关供应商提供了全新增量空间，相关供应链厂商订单弹性有望增大，因此建议关注现有特斯拉现有供应商三花智控、拓普集团，以及未来有望成为供应商的优质标的银轮股份。同时，随着汽车智能化、电动化的不断推进，具备整车厂Tier1资源和产品技术优 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -0.46 -1.95 15.16 深证成指 -0.46 0.62 32.35 创业板指 -0.89 1.79 33.93 沪深300 -0.55 -0.54 28.78 汽车(申万) 0.95 0.14 4.35 汽车整车 1.45 -1.07 -2.27 汽车零部件 0.68 1.97 8.87 汽车服务 1.17 -7.58 -1.20 指数表现（最近一年） -15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%汽车(申万)沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杨靖磊 执业证书编号：S1050518080001 电话：021-54967583 邮箱：yangjl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019年12月3日 汽车 需求改善仍需时间，行业分化或不断加剧 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业周报 势的车载电子龙头有望成为智能驾驶落地的入口，打开全新增长空间，因此建议重点关注座舱电子系统龙头德赛西威。 风险提示：汽车销量持续低迷导致车企盈利能力大幅下滑、宏观经济持续低迷、中美贸易摩擦不断升级等。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业周报 目录 1. 本周观点及投资建议 ····················································································································································· 4 2. 市场行情回顾 ································································································································································ 4 2.1大盘震荡整理，汽车板块表现跑赢大盘 ························································································································· 4 2.2各子板块表现不一，商用载客车板块表现不佳 ············································································································· 6 3. 行业及公司动态回顾 ····················································································································································· 8 3.1传统整车及零部件领域 ····················································································································································· 8 3.2智能网联领域 ····································································································································································· 8 3.3汽车电动化领域 ································································································································································· 9 4. 重点公司公告速览 ······················································································································································· 10 5. 行业重点数据跟踪 ······················································································································································· 11 5.1. 汽车产销数据跟踪 ························································································································································· 11 5.2. 商用车产销数据跟踪 ····················································································································································· 12 5.3. 新能源汽车产销数据跟踪 ············································································································································· 13 5.4行业库存情况跟踪 ··························································································································································· 15 5.5重点原材料价格数据走势跟踪 ······································································································································· 15 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 证券研究报告·行业周报 1. 本周观点及投资建议 根据乘联会发布的数据，11月第三周国内乘用车日均零售量为4.9万台，同比下降19%，表现较第二周持平，但较去年同期下滑显著。11月前三周日均零售量为4.1万台，同比下滑15%，需求端改善程度较弱。第三周日均批发销量为5.7万台，同比下降9%，下滑幅度虽然在收窄，但批发端销量目前大于零售端，体现出行业库存正在增加，消费疲弱的现象未见改善。从目前周度高频数据看，国内乘用车市场销售乏力的问题仍在消费端。我们认为，未来若没有实质性刺激政策的出台，行业出现显著反转的几率较小，需求端将整体呈现弱复苏格局。在此背景下，行业分化的局面会不断持续，强势企业的竞争力有望不断强化。 对于行业投资逻辑，我们始终认为，未来我国汽车行业的竞争将不断加剧，唯有具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业有能力持续受益，结构性机会将是长期关注重点。在当前时点，汽车行业正面临整体盈利周期的低点，未来随着国内宏观经济的逐步企稳，汽车行业大概率出现结构性复苏。从投资角度而言，建议始终从短期弹性、中长期价值成长和新兴增量空间三个角度出发关注相关投资机会。从短期弹性角度看，建议关注目前业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，依旧建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业上汽集团、华域汽车、星宇股份。从新兴增量空间角度看，特斯拉国产无疑为国内相关供应商提供了全新增量空间，相关供应链厂商订单
