汽车行业：行业进入最艰难时刻，需求改善仍需时间

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  上周行情回顾：上周沪深300下跌4.67%；申万汽车板块下跌4.58%，涨幅位列申万一级行业第20位，跑赢沪深300指数0.09个百分点；其中，汽车整车板块下跌4.76%，汽车零部件板块下跌4.62%，汽车服务板块下跌3.98%。  上市公司信息回顾：4月国内乘用车销量下滑16.9%；滴滴与比亚迪合作的无人车亮相智博会，搭载6颗摄像头；财政部等四部门发布《支持新能源公交车推广应用的通知》等。  本周行业观点：上周，4月乘用车销量数据出炉，据乘联会数据，4月国内狭义乘用车销量约为150.84万台，环比下滑13.8%，同比下滑16.9%。分车型看，轿车销量为76.51万台，同比下滑17.2%；SUV销量约为64.22万台，同比下滑14.7%;MPV销量约为10.11万台，同比下滑26.7%。整体看，1至4月国内狭义乘用车累计销量约为659.47万台，同比下滑11.9%。从数据看，4月国内汽车市场表现整体低迷，并未表现出显著改善迹象，同时，从各主要车企销量数据看，企业端销售压力巨大。究其原因，一方面与去年同期国内汽车销量在前期政策刺激等因素的影响下处于历史高位，基数较高有关；另一方面也体现出目前国内消费市场的疲弱。在销量连续下滑的背景下，国内汽车市场已进入最为艰难的时期。 消息层面，上周国务院正式发布《报废机动车回收管理办法》，并将于6月正式实施。此前，作为高附加值部分的报废车“五大总成”零部件，只能够作为废钢铁交给冶金企业进行“回炉”。新规允许将报废机动车的“五大总成”再利用，此举将大大增加报废汽车的剩余价值，有利于调动车主报废的积极性，促进消费者购买新车。从国家近期出台的一系列有关汽车行业的促进政策看，着眼点已由过去的直接补贴调整为调动并提升消费者购车需求层面。我们认为，与以往直接进行补贴刺激相比，通过相关政策激发消费者购买需求的起效时间会相对缓慢，但此举更有利于行业长期健康稳定增长。结合短期国内汽车销量现状，我们维持上半年行业逐步触底的判断，进入下半年，在同期基数降低、国家相关政策陆续推出并逐步起效的影响下，行业大概率迎来触底反弹。  投资建议：对于行业投资逻辑，我们始终认为，未来我国汽车 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -4.52 -7.86 17.86 深证成指 -4.54 -9.09 27.56 创业板指 -5.54 -9.30 22.66 沪深300 -4.67 -6.68 23.91 汽车(申万) -4.58 -11.84 16.28 汽车整车 -4.76 -9.36 13.39 汽车零部件 -4.62 -13.17 17.23 汽车服务 -3.98 -14.27 22.71 指数表现（最近一年） -35.00%-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%汽车(申万)沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杨靖磊 执业证书编号：S1050518080001 电话：021-54967583 邮箱：yangjl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019年5月13日 汽车 行业进入最艰难时刻，需求改善仍需时间 行业评级：中性 20714064/36139/20190513 18:49 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 行业的竞争将不断加剧，唯有具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业有能力持续受益，结构性机会将是长期关注重点。在当前时点，汽车行业正面临整体盈利周期的低点，随着库存的逐步去化及国内宏观经济的企稳，行业复苏预期正在形成，从弹性角度看，建议关注前期业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业上汽集团、华域汽车、星宇股份。在新能源汽车板块，随着特斯拉中国工厂的落地，其本土供应链将迎来结构性机会。特斯拉国产化对于其现有供应商而言意味着订单弹性有望增大，而对于潜在供应商而言，则意味着有望获得全新增量订单。建议关注特斯拉现有供应商三花智控、拓普集团，以及有望成为新晋供应商的优质标的银轮股份。同时，随着汽车智能化、电动化的不断推进，具备整车厂Tier1资源和产品技术优势的车载电子龙头有望成为智能驾驶落地的入口，享受智能驾驶高速增长的红利，建议重点关注座舱电子系统龙头德赛西威。  风险提示：汽车销量持续低迷导致车企盈利能力大幅下滑、宏观经济持续低迷、中美贸易摩擦不断升级等。 20714064/36139/20190513 18:49 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业报告 目录 1． 本周观点及投资建议 ............................................................................................................................................. 4 2． 市场行情回顾 ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 2.1大盘下跌，汽车板块跌幅小于大盘 ······················································································································ 4 2.2乘用车及汽车零部件板块表现较差，商用车相对较好 ······················································································ 6 3． 行业及公司动态回顾 ............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1传统整车及零部件领域 ·········································································································································· 8 3.2智能网联领域 ·························································································································································· 8 3.3 汽车电动化领域 ····················································································································································· 9 4． 重点公司公告速览 ............................................................................................................................................... 11 5． 行业重点数据跟踪 ............................................................................................................................................... 12 5.1. 汽车产销数据跟踪 ·············································································································································· 12 5.2. 商用车产销数据跟踪 ·········································································································································· 13 5.3. 新能源汽车产销数据跟踪 ·································································································································· 14 5.4行业库存情况跟踪 ················································································································································ 16 5.5重点原材料价格数据走势跟踪 ···························································································································· 16 20714064/36139/20190513 18:49 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 证券研究报告·行业报告 1． 本周观点及投资建议 上周，4月乘用车销量数据出炉，据乘联会数据，4月国内狭义乘用车销量约为150.84万台，环比下滑13.8%，同比下滑16.9%。分车型看，轿车销量为76.51万台，同比下滑17.2%；SUV销量约为64.22万台，同比下滑14.7%;MPV销量约为10.11万台，同比下滑26.7%。整体看，1至4月国内狭义乘用车累计销量约为659.47万台，同比下滑11.9%。从数据看，4月国内汽车市场表现整体低迷，并未表现出显著改善迹象，同时，从各主要车企销量数据看，企业端生产销售压力巨大。究其原因，一方面与去年同期国内汽车销量在前期政策刺激等因素的影响下处于历史高位，导致基数较高有关；另一方面也体现出目前国内消费市场的疲弱。在销量连续下滑的背景下，国内汽