广州车展开幕，强势车企展示新品，部分企业缺席

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·个股深度报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  上周行情回顾：上周沪深300下跌0.70%，汽车板块上涨0.47%，涨幅位列申万一级行业第16，跑赢沪深300指数1.17个百分点；其中，汽车整车板块下跌0.02%，汽车零部件板块上涨0.73%，汽车服务板块上涨0.84%。  上市公司信息回顾：2019 广州车展开幕；工信部公开征求对《国家车联网产业标准体系建设指南（车辆智能管理）》的意见；特斯拉皮卡Cybertruck发布等。  本周行业观点：根据根据乘联会发布的数据，11月第二周国内乘用车日均零售量为4.9万台，同比下降6%，表现较第一周大幅改善，第二周日均批发销量为5.3万台，同比下降6%，下滑幅度不断收窄，第二周销量改善的原因预计主要与双十一促销有关。在去年同期国内乘用车销量大幅下滑造成的低基数背景下，预计11月整月国内乘用车销售降幅将进一步收窄，行业在明年一季度有望逐步走出底部。 行业消息方面，上周广州车展开幕，众多新车型与消费者见面，其中全新BMW X6、全新一代傲跑、斯柯达柯米克GT、全新腾势X、长安CS55PLUS等车型于本次正式宣布上市。而全新福特锐际、威兰达、领克05、大众Viloran（魏昂）、小鹏P7等车型在车展首发亮相。广州车展作为年内最后一次大型车展，是众多车企迎接年底销售旺季和展示自身品牌的重要渠道。但值得注意的是，包括众泰、力帆、东风雪铁龙等传统车企和零跑、理想、奇点等造车新势力在内的众多车企缺席了本届车展，而本届车展无论是全球首发还是展车数量均低于往年。对于该现象，我们认为，部分车企缺席年内重要车展反映出目前汽车行业整体现状。在销量增速告别高速增长阶段后，车企间分化的趋势正在不断加速。未来强势车企凭借着对消费者需求的准确把握、深厚的技术储备与车型开发能力、优秀的成本控制能力与管理水平将不断蚕食弱势车企市场空间，而挖掘强势车企及其产业链投资机会是未来汽车行业投资的关键所在。  投资建议：对于行业投资逻辑，我们始终认为，未来我国汽车行业的竞争将不断加剧，唯有具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业有能力持续受益，结构性机会将是长期关注重点。在当前时点，汽车行业正面临整体盈利周期的低 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -0.21 -1.91 15.69 深证成指 -0.22 0.62 32.97 创业板指 0.30 1.79 34.33 沪深300 -0.70 -0.54 27.88 汽车(申万) 0.47 0.14 4.84 汽车整车 -0.02 -1.07 -2.29 汽车零部件 0.73 1.97 9.66 汽车服务 0.84 -7.58 -0.38 指数表现（最近一年） -10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%汽车(申万)沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杨靖磊 执业证书编号：S1050518080001 电话：021-54967583 邮箱：yangjl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019年11月25日 汽车 广州车展开幕，强势车企展示新品，部分企业缺席 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业周报 点，未来随着国内宏观经济的逐步企稳，汽车行业大概率出现结构性复苏。从投资角度而言，建议始终从短期弹性、中长期价值成长和新兴增量空间三个角度出发关注相关投资机会。从短期弹性角度看，建议关注目前业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，依旧建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业上汽集团、华域汽车、星宇股份。从新兴增量空间角度看，特斯拉国产无疑为国内相关供应商提供了全新增量空间，相关供应链厂商订单弹性有望增大，因此建议关注现有特斯拉现有供应商三花智控、拓普集团，以及未来有望成为供应商的优质标的银轮股份。同时，随着汽车智能化、电动化的不断推进，具备整车厂Tier1资源和产品技术优势的车载电子龙头有望成为智能驾驶落地的入口，打开全新增长空间，因此建议重点关注座舱电子系统龙头德赛西威。  风险提示：汽车销量持续低迷导致车企盈利能力大幅下滑、宏观经济持续低迷、中美贸易摩擦不断升级等。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业周报 目录 1. 本周观点及投资建议 ····················································································································································· 4 2. 市场行情回顾 ································································································································································ 4 2.1大盘下跌，汽车板块表现跑赢大盘 ································································································································· 4 2.2各子板块表现不一，商用载客车板块表现较弱 ············································································································· 6 3. 行业及公司动态回顾 ····················································································································································· 8 3.1传统整车及零部件领域 ····················································································································································· 8 3.2智能网联领域 ····································································································································································· 8 3.3 汽车电动化领域 ································································································································································ 9 4. 重点公司公告速览 ······················································································································································· 10 5. 行业重点数据跟踪 ······················································································································································· 11 5.1. 汽车产销数据跟踪 ························································································································································· 11 5.2. 商用车产销数据跟踪 ····················································································································································· 12 5.3. 新能源汽车产销数据跟踪 ············································································································································· 13 5.4行业库存情况跟踪 ··························································································································································· 15 5.5重点原材料价格数据走势跟踪 ······································································································································· 15 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 证券研究报告·行业周报 1. 本周观点及投资建议 根据乘联会发布的数据，11月第二周国内乘用车日均零售量为4.9万台，同比下降6%，表现较第一周大幅改善，第二周日均批发销量为5.3万台，同比下降6%，下滑幅度不断收窄，第二周销量改善的原因预计主要与双十一促销有关。在去年同期国内乘用车销量大幅下滑造成的低基数背景下，预计11月整月国内乘用车销售降幅将进一步收窄，行业在明年一季度有望逐步走出底部。 行业消息方面，上周广州车展开幕，众多新车型与消费者见面，其中全新BMW X6、全新一代傲跑、斯柯达柯米克GT、全新腾势X、长安CS55PLUS等车型于本次正式宣布上市。而全新福特锐际、威兰达、领克05、大众Viloran（魏昂）、小鹏P7等车