百富环球：国内及海外市场POS机销售前景两旺

Company Research PAX Global Tech (0327.HK) Aug 23th, 2013 For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosuresat the end of this report.1 PAX Global Tech(0327.HK) BUY | Target price: HK$3.71, Upside:+36.4%Twin engine – domestic and overseas markets Investment Highlights „ Better than expected interim driven by domestic growth. In 1H13, net profit grew by 9% to HK$ 90.8m driven by a 19% revenue growth to HK$ 631mn. Total orders from domestic third party payment companies like Allinpay, Chinaapnr，Vbill, Lakala and etc doubled and accounted for more than half of its domestic shipment. We expect this trendto continue for next few years and total revenue from domestic market is forecast to grow at more than 15% per annum. „ Order delays caused drop in overseas revenue but strong prospects remain intact.The 7% y-o-y drop in overseas market revenue to HK$ 202mn in 1H13 was mainly because of delays in some orders. We expect it to recover strongly in 2H13, leading to a 27.7% growth for the full year. Revenue from overseas grew five times in the past fouryears thanks to the expansion made into APAC, LACIS, EMEA and USCA region. In the next three years, overseas market revenue will continue to rise accounting for 40% of itstotal revenue and GPM will expand to 36% or 37% from the current 35%. „ Strong R&D and MFi certification granted by Apple. PAX continues to expand its R&D team. Now R&D personnel increased to 340 accounting for more than 55% of its 611 total employees. PAX’s D-series mobile POS terminals recently have been grantedMFi certification by Apple. These D-series products can now be connected to iPhone,iPad and other mobile devices running payment applications. This has greatly improvedPAX’ global brand image and is good for its long term overseas marketing. „ Becoming world’s third largest POS producer in 3-5 years. According to an international investigation company Nilson, PAX ranked fourth in terms of POS machine shipment globally in 2012. PAX is aiming for an increase in its global market share to 15% in 3-5 years’ time, up from 5.5% in 2011. According to this strategic plan, we expect the company’s annual revenue may reach HK$ 3.5bn in 5 years time making it the thirdlargest POS producing company in the world following Ingenico and Verifone. Net profitmay reach HK$ 500mn translating into a 5-year CAGR of 20%. „ Maintain “Buy” rating and raise TP from HK$2.11 to HK$3.71. In the coming three years, we forecast PAX to see an annual growth of more than 20% in revenue and15-25% in net profit. It has an estimated net cash of HK$ 1.40 per share accounting for 51.5% of its share price. We maintain our “Buy” rating and raise our TP from HK$2.11 to HK$3.71 based on ~15x 2014P/E, or ~9.3x ex-cash 2014P/E. This implies a PEG of 0.78. Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Turnover (HK$ m) 1,103 1,313 1,612 1,956 2,347 Turnover Growth (%) 52.5 19.0 22.7 21.4 20.0 Net Profit (HK$ m) 182 183 228 262 311 Net Profit Growth (%) 25.0 0.6 24.5 14.9 18.7 EPS (HK$) 0.175 0.176 0.215 0.247 0.293 P/E (x) 7.6 7.6 12.6 11.0 9.3 P/B (x) 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 Dividend per share(HK$) - - - - - Source: Guosen Securities (HK) Internet、Media and Software Analyst： Qiu Lin (Eric) SFC CE No.:AYI706 (852)- 28993120 lin.qiu@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Tencent Finance Key Data Price(HK$) 2.72Shares outstanding(m) 1,059Market Cap. (HK$ m) 2,880Free float (%) 34.452 Week Range 3.14/1.17Controlling Shareholder Hi Sun (42.8%)Hao Capital(22.8%)BVPS (HK$) 1.82Asset-liability ratio (%) 16.8 Related Reports PAX(0327.HK) “Solid Revenue growth, fueled by booming 3rd party payment industry” Aug 23, 2012 PAX(0327.HK) “The major EFT-POS developer in China and yet has more bright future” Oct 21, 2012 公司报告 百富环球（0327.HK） 2013年08月23日 国信证券（香港） 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 百富环球 (0327.HK) 买入|目标价: HK$ 3.71 | 潜在升幅：+36.4% 国内及海外市场POS机销售前景两旺 投资要点 „ 受惠于第三方支付企业订单拉动，国内 POS 机行业生产的龙头企业-百富环球(0327.HK)2013 年 1H 业绩优于预期。公司上半年收入 6.31 亿港元，同比增长 19%；净利润 9078 万港元，同比增长 9%。来自于第三方支付企业如汇付天下、拉卡拉、通联支付等的 POS 机订单量上升了 100%，占到公司国内市场总出货量的 50%以上，收入增长 88%。预计未来三年内，随着相关第三方支付企业继续做深做精，第三方支付的线下 POS 收单业务仍将保持快速增长，从而拉动百富国内市场的 POS 机销售收入达到 15%以上的同比增速。 „ 1H 海外市场订单有延迟，但预计 2H 海外收入将出现同比大增。随着近年来百富在中亚、欧美、拉美、非洲等市场的积极开拓和订单落地，来自于海外市场的收入在四年内增长了近 5 倍，占公司总收入的比重稳步跨越 30%。由于部分订单移至 2H 出货，因此 1H 的海外市场收入同比下滑了 7%，但预计公司 2H 海外市场的销售收入将同比大增70%-100%。未来来自于海外市场的收入占比将逐步提升到40%以上，成为百富业绩长期增长的引擎。 „ 移动支付设备获得苹果 MFi 认证，大大提升公司品牌形象。近期，公司的移动支付设备–D200、D210 获得苹果公司 MFi 认证，获授权可以与 iPhone、iPad 及其他苹果移动设备一起使用，并在苹果移动设备上运行支付应用程序。此举意味着公司 D 系列产品与苹果设备的全面兼容，可以安全地与 iPhone 或 iPad 等设备连接匹配。百富一向重视研发投入，研发人员在公司 611 人的员工总数中占比超过50%。此次来自于苹果的认可有助于提升百度在国际市场上的品牌形象，有利于公