中国海洋石油：收购尼克森所带来的贡献快将呈现

Company Report 中国海洋石油有限公司 (00883.HK) 由于海外支出增加致盈利率收窄，中海油（“集团”，或“公司”）2012年的盈利同比降9.3%至636亿元（人民币，下同）。然而，集团近期完成收购尼克森的交易，将加快盈利的反弹。 总生产量同比增加3.2%，2013年增长将进一步加速 中海油2012年产量为342.4百万油当量，同比上升3.2%，当中集团于2012年第4季度的产量持续回复至正常水平。在加拿大及伊朗开始作出贡献下，海外产量尤其强劲，同比增长16.9%至46.4百万油当量。 收购尼克森带来的贡献将很快实现 在集团于今年2月26日完成对尼克森的收购后，预期产量将持续增加。于分析员会议中，管理层没有透露或更改集团2013年的产量目标。然而，根据2012年的估计数字，集团产量或将额外同比增加20%至411.7百万油当量，而证实储量则同比增加30%至4,329百万油当量。 成本增长幅度较为温和 中海油的每单位生产总成本同比增长16.8%至每桶35.73美元，较2011年时的25%同比增长有所舒缓。成本增长反映了政府调整资源税及海外营运增加等因素。 资本开支继续增加以支持新项目发展 为实现中海油于2011-15年间年复合增长达到6-10%的目标，集团维持2013年资本开支120-140亿美元的目标不变。当中70%将用作发展开支，以保证集团能维持其储量替代率(RRR)目标于100%以上。 派息比率回升 中海油建议派发每股0.32港元的末期股息，将全年的派息率回升到相当于26.7%的水平，而纾缓投资者对集团或将降低派息比率以应付资本开支的担忧。 估值 基我们维持「买入」评级，并调整目标价至每股17.00港元。 盈利预测及估值 人民币百万元 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 240944 247627 251106 276344 298592 同比增长(%) 32% 3% 1% 10% 8% 净利润 70255 63691 64430 69712 75289 同比增长(%) 29% -9% 1% 8% 8% 每股盈利（元） 1.57 1.43 1.44 1.56 1.69 每股股息（元） 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.45 市盈率（X） 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.5 6.9 市净率（X） 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 ROE（%） 27% 21% 18% 17% 17% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 买入 (上次：买入) 目标价：HK$ 17.00 现价：HK$14.32 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年3月24日 基础数据 恒生指数 22,115.30 H股指数 10,896.48 总股数（百万股） 44,646.31 港股股数（百万股） 44,646.31 港股市值(港元百万) 639,335.06 每股净资产（港元） 6.37 主要股东 持股(％) 中海油集团 64.41% 自由流通量 35.55% 行业 石油/天然气 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 (6.8) (8.6) (12.6) 相对恒指表现 (3.7) (15.4) (19.6) -20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13%00883.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 收购尼克森所带来的贡献快将呈现 Company Report CNOOC (00883.HK) CNOOC’s FY12 net profit declined 9.3%yoy to RMB63.6bn as higher oversea expenses led to margin contract. However, the recently completed Nexen acquisition should accelerate earnings recovery. Total production up 3.2%yoy with more to come in FY13 CNOOC’s FY12 production was 342.4mmboe, up 3.2%yoy, with production recovery continuing throughout 4Q12. Overseas production was particularly strong, growing 16.9%yoy to 46.4mmbbls, as the company’s oil assets in Canada and Iraq starting to contribute to production. Benefits of Nexen acquisition soon to materialize More production could be on its way after the company completion its acquisition of Nexen on 26th Feb this year. During the analyst meeting, management would not divulge or revise the production target for FY13. However, based on FY12 pro forma figures, production could surge another 20%yoy to 411.7mmboe, while proven reserves would increase by 30%yoy to 4,329mmboe. Costs grew at a milder rate CNOOC’s all-in cost increased 16.8%yoy to US$35.73/boe, which was less than the 25%yoy surge experienced in FY11. Increase in costs reflects changes in governmental policies regarding resource tax as well as increased overseas operations of the company. Capex continues to increase due to new projects To achieve CNOOC’s production growth target of 6-10%CAGR (FY11-FY15), the company’s US$12-14bn in capex spending during FY14 remains unchanged. 70% of will be allocated to development spending to ensure that the company can maintain its RRR target above 100%. Dividend payout bounces back CNOOC’s board recommended a final dividend of HK$0.32/share, bringing full year dividend payout to 26.7%, which alleviates investor’s concerns that the company would start reducing dividend to compensate for capex spending. Valuation We maintain our ‘Buy’ recommendation, but adjust our target price to HK$17.00/share target price. Financials RMB mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 240944 247627 251106 276344 298592 Growth(%) 32% 3% 1% 10% 8% Net profit 70255 63691 64430 69712 75289 Growth(%) 29% -9% 1% 8% 8% EPS（yuan） 1.57 1.43 1.44 1.56 1.69 DPS（yuan） 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.45 P/E（X） 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.5 6.9 P/B（X） 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 ROE（%） 27% 21% 18% 17% 17% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimatesBuy (prior：Buy ) TP： HK$ 17.00 Current price：HK$14.32 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 24 Mar 2013 Key data HSI Index 22,115.30 HSCEI Index 10,896.48 S/O（mn） 44,646.31 S/O (HK)（mn） 44,646.31 Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 639,335.06 BVPS（HKD） 6.37 Major share holder Holding (％) China National Offsho 64.41% Free float 35.55% Industry Oil & Gas Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return (6.8) (8.6) (12.6) Relative return (3.7) (15.4) (19.6) -20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13%00883.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related research Benefits of Nexen acquisition soon to materialize Company Report Production growth rebounds CNOOC’s oil & gas production growth rebounded 3.2%yoy to 342.4mmboe meeting the company’s FY12 production target of 335-345mmboe. Crude oil production increased 5.2%yoy to 271.9.5mmbbls, the highest for the company since listing, while natural gas