中国海洋石油：尼克森带动中海油业绩上升

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 6 公司报告 中国海洋石油有限公司 (00883.HK) 尼克森带动中海油(“集团”)的总石油和天然气产量上升，导致首9个月的收入同比增长17.4%至1707.64亿元（人民币，下同），业绩符合预期。在未来两个月，集团将会有5个新项目陆续投产，而进一步增加产量。维持「买入」。 尼克森的贡献 尼克森于第三季度仅为中海油贡献超过16百万桶油当量的油气产量，而提升集团的总产量至103.4百万桶油当量（同比增长17.8%）。自从今年三月份完成收购后，尼克森总共为中海油贡献41百万桶油当量，其预期今年全年贡献将达到59百万油当量。虽然由于北海及Buzzard油田的管道遇到技术性障碍，使第三季度产量略低于之前数季，然而，在今年年底前，产量将升回至20-24百万桶油当量。尼克森将继续为新母公司带来更好的回报。 新油田投产将进一步提高产量 集团在第三季度一共有4个新油气田开始投产。新油气田已经稳定了集团产量的自然下降趋势。未来两个月， 另外5个新项目将开始陆续投产。管理层仍然非常有信心能够达成今年338-348百万桶油当量（不包括尼克森）的产量目标。此外，集团在中国海域取得2个新发现、海外取得3个新发现。我们乐观地相信新发现将使集团实现其6-10%的复合年增长率(2011-2015年)的长期产量增长目标。 利布拉油田策略 关于中海油赢取巴西利布拉油田项目的10%股权，公司重申其并购策略仍然持谨慎态度，同时平衡风险及回报。利布拉油田具有庞大的储备升值潜力（估计80至120亿桶），并应有助集团维持资本回报率在15%以上的水平。 估值 我们认为，中海油目前的价格已提供了一个买入或增持的好机会。维持「买入」评级及每股17.00港元的目标价（基于集团9.5倍的中期循环市盈率及每股1.44元的2013年预期盈利）。 盈利预测及估值 人民币百万元 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 240,944 247,627 251,106 276,344 298,592 同比增长(%) 32% 3% 1% 10% 8% 净利润 70,255 63,691 64,430 69,712 75,289 同比增长(%) 29% -9% 1% 8% 8% 每股盈利（元） 1.57 1.43 1.44 1.56 1.69 每股股息（元） 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.45 市盈率（x） 7.7 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.2 市净率（x） 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 ROE(%) 27% 21% 18% 17% 17% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 买入 (上次：买入) 目标价：HK$ 17.00 现价：HK$15.28 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年10月25日 基础数据 恒生指数 22,835.82 H股指数 10,322.12 总股数（百万股） 44,647.46 港股股数（百万股） 44,647.46 港股市值(港元百万) 682,213.13 每股净资产（港元） 7.38 主要股东 持股(％) 中海油集团 64.41% 自由流通量 33.55% 行业 石油/天然气 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 (3.3) 5.8 (6.0) 相对恒指表现 (1.7) 3.9 (10.7) -35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan 13Mar 13May 13Jul 13Sep 13%00883.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 尼克森带动中海油业绩上升 Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 6 Company Report CNOOC (00883.HK) CNOOC’s 3Q13/9M13 results were in line with expectations as Nexen boosted oil & gas production for the group, leading to a +17.4%YoY increase in revenue for 9M13 to RMB170,764mn. 5 new projects will come on stream within the next two months, which will further increase output through to FY14. Maintain Buy. Nexen contribution Nexen contributed over 16mmboe in oil & gas production during 3Q13， boosting CNOOC’s total production to 103.4mmboe (+17.8%YoY). During 9M13 Nexen has contributed 41mmboe in oil & gas production, and is on its way of meeting the 59mmboe production contribution target that CNOOC set earlier this year. Although 3Q13 production was slightly off versus previous quarters due to technical problems in the North Sea and Buzzard Field pipeline, production should return to about 20-24mmboe before the end of the year. New oil fields will boost oil production further during 4Q 4 new fields came on stream during 3Q13, which has stabilized the natural decline in production. Another 5 new fields will begin to come on stream by the end of this year. Management is still confident in achieving this year’s production target of 338-348mmboe (excluding Nexen). In addition to the new projects, CNOOC made two new discoveries offshore China and three new discoveries overseas. We are optimistic that these new fields will allow the company to achieve its LT production growth target of 6-10%CAGR (FY11-FY15). Libra oilfield strategy Regarding CNOOC’s expansion into Brazil after winning a 10% stake in the Libra Field oil project, the company reiterated that its M&A strategy remains prudent, while balancing risk/reward and return for share-holders. The Libra project has significant reserve upside potential (estimated at 8bn to 12bn barrels) and should help CNOOC to sustain a ROIC level at above 15%. Valuation We believe the current price level provides a good opportunity to buy and/or accumulate the stock. We maintain our Buy recommendation, and HK$17.00/share TP (9.5x mid-cycle earnings multiple to forward EPS of RMB1.44/share). Financials RMBmn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 240,944 247,627 251,106 276,344 298,592 Growth(%) 32% 3% 1% 10% 8% Net profit 70,255 63,691 64,430 69,712 75,289 Growth(%) 29% -9% 1% 8% 8% EPS(RMB) 1.57 1.43 1.44 1.56 1.69 DPS(RMB) 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.45 P/E(x) 7.7 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.2 P/B(x) 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 ROE(%) 27% 21% 18% 17% 17% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates Buy (Previous: Buy) Target Price：HK$ 17.00 Current Price HK$15.28 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 25 Oct., 2013 Key data HSI Index 22,835.82 HSCEI Index 10,322.12 S/O (mn) 44,647.46 Mkt cap (HK$mn) (mn) 682,213.13 BVPS (HK$) 7.38 Major share holder Holding (%) Pro Development 64.41% Free float 33.55% Industry Oil & Gas Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return (3.3) 5.8 (6.0) Relative return (1.7) 3.9 (10.7) -35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan 13Mar 13May 13Jul 13Sep 13%00883.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related re