中国海洋石油有限公司 (00883.HK)：蛇年为中海油带来好运

Company Report 中国海洋石油有限公司 (00883.HK) 新年伊始，中海油（“集团”，或“公司”）即迎接吉兆，集团收购尼克森的计划获得美国批准，而蓬莱19-3油田恢复生产，布兰特原油价格亦有上升趋势。 收购尼克森的计划获批 随着美国相关部门于2月12日批核了中海油收购尼克森的项目，该项收购已通过了所有的监管障碍。预期此收购将于下星期2月25日完成，较集团管理层此前订定的3月31日最后限期提早了整整一个月。尼克森于2012年的目标产量为每日185,000至220,000桶油当量。假设尼克森于2013年维持此产量水平，将会为中海油全年的产量额外贡献57.1-67.9 百万桶油当量，相当于集团2012年预期产量的16-20%。 蓬莱19-3油田恢复生产 于2月16日，国家海洋局已批核了中海油重新修订的油田发展计划及环境影响评估。相关的批核为蓬莱19-3油田回复正常生产亮起绿灯。蓬莱19-3为中海油最大的海上油田，于2011年9月的漏油事件发生前，其产量为每日62,000桶。根据产量分成合同，中海油持有此油田51%的权益，而康菲石油为油田营运商，负责日常的生产活动。 布兰特原油价格升至7个月高位 布兰特原油价格由2012年6月的低位已反弹了30%。除此之外，年初以今的平均价格较去年同期为高(2013年年初至今平均油价为每桶113.78美元；去年同期平均油价为每桶112.65美元)。这将为集团今年上半年的盈利带来支持。 估值 基于中海油一系列的好消息及其低于历史平均水平的估值，我们维持每股18.3的目标价及「买入」评级。 盈利预测及估值 人民币百万元 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 营业额 183,053 240,944 217,016 221,150 225,364 同比增长(%) 74% 32% -10% 2% 2% 净利润 54,410 70,255 67,717 69,381 70,703 同比增长(%) 85% 29% -4% 2% 2% 每股盈利（元） 1.22 1.57 1.52 1.55 1.58 每股股息（元） 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 市盈率（X） 10.6 8.2 8.5 8.3 8.2 市净率（X） 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 ROE（%） 25% 27% 23% 22% 21% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 买入 (上次：买入) 目标价：HK$ 18.30 现价：HK$15.88 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年2月19日 基础数据 恒生指数 23,381.94 H股指数 11,735.22 总股数（百万股） 44,646.30 港股股数（百万股） 44,646.30 港股市值(港元百万) 702,983.38 每股净资产（港元） 6.37 主要股东 持股(％) 中海油集团 64.41% 自由流通量 35.55% 行业 石油/天然气 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 (3.1) 1.9 (12.3) 相对恒指表现 (2.1) (14.3) (21.1) -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Jan 12Mar 12May 12Jul 12Sep 12Nov 12Jan 13%00883.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 蛇年为中海油带来好运 Company Report CNOOC (00883.HK) An auspicious start of the new lunar year for CNOOC’s as the Nexen acquisition gets U.S. approval, Penglai 19-3 oilfield resumes production, and Brent crude oil prices trend higher. Nexen acquisition gets approval CNOOC cleared the last regulatory hurdle in its acquisition of Nexen on Feb 12th when the deal was given approval by U.S. regulators. The acquisition is expected to close next week, Feb 25th, a full month ahead of the March 31st deadline given by CNOOC’s management. Nexen targeted annual output of 185,000 to 220,000boe/day during 2012. If the company were to maintain this level of production for 2013, an additional 57.1-67.9mmboe would be booked to CNOOC’s full year production results, equivalent to 16-20% of 2012 expected production. Penglai 19-3 resumes normal production On Feb 16th, the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) approved CNOOC’s revised oilfield development plan (ODP) as well as the recomposed environmental impact assessment (EIA). The approval gives the green light to return production at Penglai 19-3 to normal levels. Penglai 19-3 is CNOOC’s largest offshore oilfield and produced 62,000 barrels of oil a day before it was shut down in September 2011 due to an oil spill. CNOOC holds a 51% interest in Penglai 19-3 oilfield, which is operated under a production sharing agreement (PSC), whereby ConocoPhillips is the oilfield operator and responsible for daily operations. Brent crude prices at a 7-month high Brent crude oil prices have rebounded 30% from 2H12 trough. Furthermore, average YTD price for the benchmark (2013 YTD: US113.78/bbl) is higher than the same period last year (US112.65/bbl). This is beneficial to CNOOC and will support earnings during 1H13. Valuation Given the stream of positive news for CNOOC and the stock’s discount to its mid-cycle valuation, we maintain our HK$18.30/share target price and ‘Buy’ recommendation. Financials RMB mn 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenue 183,053 240,944 217,016 221,150 225,364 Growth(%) 74% 32% -10% 2% 2% Net profit 54,410 70,255 67,717 69,381 70,703 Growth(%) 85% 29% -4% 2% 2% EPS（yuan） 1.22 1.57 1.52 1.55 1.58 DPS（yuan） 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 P/E（X） 10.6 8.2 8.5 8.3 8.2 P/B（X） 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 ROE（%） 25% 27% 23% 22% 21% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimatesBuy (prior：Buy ) TP： HK$ 18.30 Current price：HK$15.88 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 19 Feb 2013 Key data HSI Index 23,381.94 HSCEI Index 11,735.22 S/O（mn） 44,646.30 S/O (HK)（mn） 44,646.30 Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 702,983.38 BVPS（HKD） 6.37 Major share holder Holding (％) China National Offsho 64.41% Free float 35.55% Industry Oil & Gas Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return (3.1) 1.9 (12.3) Relative return (2.1) (14.3) (21.1) -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Jan 12Mar 12May 12Jul 12Sep 12Nov 12Jan 13%00883.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related research Year of the Snake brings good fortune to CNOOC Company Report We maintain that CNOOC Ltd. is our top pick for amongst Chinese oil majors and current price levels are an attractive entry point for the stock. We maintain our target price of HK$18.30/share based FY13E earnings estimate of RMB1.55/share and continue to apply a mid-c