真明丽：盈利下修由於LED装饰灯业务较预期弱

ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ12͡03͟ 1 2010F2011F20 10 F20 11 Fᒉќ (Ѻ༱പ̮)1,5372,251(8.3)(8.0)ͨӀத (%)35.337.21.1 Ѻ̶ᕇ1.6 Ѻ̶ᕇஐӀማ (Ѻ༱പ̮)209320(12.9)(18.0)Տ۵ќৈ (പ̮)0. 230. 35( 12.9)( 18.0)࣒Υ಼ޘ (%) Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ̫͟Ըྤࢦᕇ b ᚊځৌ (01868.HK/1868 HK) ٺӀ˭࣒Ϥ࠳LED྅࿹፶ຽચྵ࿰ഇऴ HK$4.37 ޺ᆧ !޺ჯ જၗՀາ!!1 ౘ౰ᇇ!2 852.2878.4270 3 desmond.chan@kgia.com Ŝ ܕഇ٢ᇾඕڍΞਕᑅԺ۵ᆊ Ŝ ઼γLED྅࿹፶ᅮՐҲٺ࿰ഇ Ŝ ˭࣒ϫᇾᆊ22%Ҍ5.9പ̮ ܕഇ٢ᇾඕڍΞਕᑅԺ۵ᆊ ԧࣇߑ͟ᄃ̳ΦგநᆸᓝҖ࿪ྖົᛉĂ11͡24͟ĶLED໰ځயݡᑕϡϯቑ̍඀யݡˢಛ٢ᇾķඕڍ̳ҶĂྍีϫўд೩੼઼̚੼ݡኳLED໰ځᑕϡĂВѣ28छᇄથࠎ˭Еˬ̂யݡ۞ЪॾֻᑕથĈLEDྮ፶/ ᐋ྽፶ă೼఼LED፶ăҋᗉ߹ͅडݭLED፶Ą ̳Φᔵࠎ઼̚LED໰ځயຽ۞Аᜭ̝ ̆ĂݒϏ˯ၳĄგநᆸܑϯĂ̳Φ֭ϏણᄃԸᇾĂ͹ࢋࣧЯࠎĈ (1) ྍԸᇾีϫͨӀத࿅Ҳ (ٺҲ30%ć̳Φ೼఼໰ځயݡͨӀࠎத39%)Ă(2) ᑕќ૳ഠഇมྵܜ (2-4ѐć̳Φϫ݈̙ז1ѐ)ĄѩγĂ̳ΦϏણᄃԸᇾᄃயݡݡኳ൑ᙯĂЯࠎ̳Φࠎௐ ̆छᒔ଀઼࡚छϡLEDݡயځ໰Energy Star Program ᄮᙋ۞઼̚ᇄથĂͷࠎ౵ֲܕྻ͹ࢋ۞LED໰ࢍᗝВܛᑕથĂֻځ2,000༱̮ˠϔ။Ąፋវ҃֏Ăྍᇾ९Ξਕጱ࡭ԸྤˠயϠ၆̳Φᚮۋ˧ᄃ઼̚LEDځ໰யຽᚮۋՀԛ፬ধ۞Ⴗᇋ (ЯԸᇾᆊॾҲٺξಞனҖᆊॾ40%)Ă၆̳Φѣൺഇࢬ࢑ᇆᜩĄ൒҃Ăԧࣇ࿰ഇ̳ΦLED̳Вಞٙ໰ځొܝ૟޺ᜈࠎᆧܜଯ͘Ă2010ᄃ2011ੑѐ̶ҾТͧᆧܜ293%ᄃ72%Ҍ3.78ᆆᄃ6.52ᆆപ̮ĂЧҫ̳Φᓁᒉќ23%ᄃ27%Ą ઼γLED྅࿹፶ᅮՐҲٺ࿰ഇ ઼γ၆̳ΦLED྅࿹፶۞ᅮՐྵԧࣇࣧА࿰ഇࠎऴĂߏࠎЯ2010ѐ઼࡚ᄃለ߷ഀঈ֕ቤĂ҃྅࿹፶ᄃഀঈฉഇΥ࠹ᙯٙ࡭ĄЯѩĂԧࣇ˭࣒̳Φ2010ᄃ2011ੑѐLED྅࿹፶ᒉќ࿰ҤĂТͧࢫ̶಼Ҿࠎ22%ᄃ29% (ࣧА࿰ࠎҤЧ40%ᄃ31%)ĂࠎͅߍͨӀதྵ੼۞LED྅࿹፶ᆧܜᖼऴĂͨӀத࿰Ҥ˭࣒1.1ᄃ1.6࣎Ѻ̶ᕇҌ35.3%ᄃ37.2%Ăଘԧࣇ̪ᄮࠎͨӀதϏֽˬѐ˯̿ᔌ๕̙តĄ ԧࣇ˭࣒2010ᄃ2011ѐՏ۵ќৈ࿰Ҥ13%ᄃ18%Ăז̶ֽҾ0.228ᄃ0.349പ̮Ą ဦ ̆Ĉੑീ࣒Υ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ć౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥ ̳ΦෞᆊᄃԸྤޙᛉ! ԧࣇ޺ᜈ࠻р̳Φܜഇјώᐹ๕ĂநϤт˭Ĉ(1) ፋۡݬЪ۞ᒉྻሀёĂ(2) ԫఙ̙ᕝࡎ৔ĂтଳϡΣ߹࿪ăLED೿ͯ۞ޘܪ͟ৈ೩੼Ă(3) ෸ݑᇄѣӄ༼࠷јώඈĄ̳Φϫ۵݈ᆊࠎԧࣇ2010ᄃ2011ѐՏ۵ќৈ࿰Ҥ19.2ᄃ12.5ࢺĂ12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊЯᒔӀᆧܜᔌቤ҃˭࣒Ҍ5.9പ̮Ă࠹༊ٺԧࣇ2011ѐᒔӀ࿰Ҥ17ࢺĂពϯ˯ႚ۩ม35%Ăჯ޺Ķᆧ޺ķෞ৺Ą ԸྤࢲᐍΒ߁LED೼̈́தҲٺ࿰ഇăனܛฉᖼதܜؼ (LEDྮ፶ќഠഇྵܜ)ăԸྤຫৈگજăྤܛઐღ(2010ᄃ2011ѐྤώ͚΍࿰Ҥ̶Ҿࠎ6ᆆᄃ6.5ᆆ̮ˠϔ။)Ą Ҍ12͡31͟͹ᒉќˢ ͹ᒉӀማ ᒉຽӀማEBITDAஐӀማ Տ۵࠳Ӏ(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$)2009A1,1123821052491570.192010F1,5375431743442090.232011F2,2518373085113200.352012F3,0521,1564516774370.48Ҍ12͡31͟EV/SalesEV/EBIT EV/EBITDAத࠳ξEV/Inv. Cஐྤயаಡத(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(%)2009A3.334.614.722.61.04.92010F2.622.911.619.21.06.22011F2.014.58.712.51.08.82012F1.510.46.99.21.011.0யຽ6.8 - 2.25.904.4/51635.0916 85 601.4 403.7 41.2 -14.5; -0.7; 99.5ܛன-23.5; -16.2; 54.752 ฉ۵ᆊ (Ҳ/੼):12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ (പ။̮)ξࣃ (Ȉᆆ̮/Ѻ༱ܛ࡚):̍ຽ˯ႚ/˭฀۩ม (%)߹఼дγ۵ᇴ (Ѻ༱۵):˯ႚ۩มଵЩ (percentile, %)̙צ̂۵ڌೠଠ۵ᇴ (%):۵Ӏќৈத-12/10Ҥ (%)ڌ۵ࢋ͹ (%):Տ۵ஐࣃ -12/10Ҥ(പ။̮)3 ࣎͡πӮ͟јΣณ (Ѻ༱۵):ᆊॾՏ۵ஐࣃͧ -12/10Ҥ (x)۵ᆊ඗၆ܑன % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)ஐ࢑ๅͧத -12/10Ҥ (%)னܑ၆࠹۵ᆊ % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)Fan Ben ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ12͡03͟ 2 Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fྤயᓁᗝ3,1243,9634,2194,8935,368߹જྤய1,7142,4272,3292,6552,996 னܛ̈́ൺഇԸྤ4711,298957781568 хఱ9088108901,2011,532 ᑕќ૳ഠ̈́ைፂ235170275370485 જྤய߹΁׎991 492 0630341 0જྤய߹ܧ1,4111,5351,8912,2382,372 ܜഇԸྤ1,1601,2241,4841,6711,626 ׽ؠྤய00000 ̦ีྤய251311407567747࢑ๅᓁᗝ6117288391,2581,389ๅ࢑જ߹2956998109291,060 ᑕ;૳ഠ̈́ைፂ1 86971 7724431 7 ൺഇࣄഠ185 215 2152152 1 ̦ี࢑ๅ91811 1216422 2ๅ࢑ഇܜ3172929329329 ܜഇࣄഠ3172929329329 ׎΁࢑ๅ̈́໤౯00000۵ڌᝋৈᓁᗝ2,5133,2353,3803,6353,979 ೼఼۵ώ769191919 1 ྤώ̳᎕1,2461,8121,8121,8121,812 ዶ࠳঻ܲ1,1851,3251,4761,7312,075 পҾ۵ώ76000Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2 00 8A2 00 9A2 01 0F2 01 1F2 01 2Fѐјܜத (% )ᒉຽќˢ2.9(31.3)38.246.535.6ᒉຽӀৈ(21.4)(46.2)65.076.946.4EBITDA(4.6)(22.5)38.248.432.4ඁޢ৷ৈ(58.5)14.032.953.236.8Տ۵࠳ዶ(58.5)7.117.653.236.8ᒔӀਕ˧̶ژ (%)ᒉຽͨӀத32.534.435.337.237.9ᒉຽӀৈத12.19.511.313.714.8EBITDA Ӏৈத19.922.422.422.722.2ඁޢ৷ৈத8.514.113.614.214.3πӮྤயಡ࿌த4.74.45.17.08.5πӮஐࣃಡ࿌த5.65.56.39.111.5ؠᘦ \ ᐺๅਕ˧̶ژͨ࢑ๅͧத (%)24.322.524.834.634.9ஐ࢑ๅͧத (%)(5.3)(11.0)(0.5)12.716.9Ӏिܲᅪࢺᇴ(X)35.618.06.68.013.3Ӏि̈́ൺഇๅܲᅪࢺᇴ (X)6.10.30.40.70.9Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X)28.54.88.92.86.2Cash Flow/ Int. & ST Debt (X)6.80.10.40.20.4߹જͧத (X)5.83.52.92.92.8ిજͧத (X)2.72.31.81.61.4ๅ࢑ஐ (Ѻ༱പ̮)(132)(356)(16)461673Տ۵ྤफ̶़ژ (HK$)Տ۵࠳ዶ0.180.190.230.350.48ዶ࠳ܛՏ۵ன0.260.300.380.520.66Տ۵ஐࣃ3.303.993.693.974.35Տ۵ᒉќ2.131.371.682.463.33EBITDA\shr0.420.310.380.560.74Տ۵۵Ӏ0.120.030.060.070.10ڶېྤயྻϡྤய׹ᖼத (X)0.60.30.40.50.6ᑕќ૳ഠ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ53.155.965.260.058.0хఱ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ303.7405.4327.0310.0295.0ᑕ;૳ഠ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ62.248.565.163.061.0னܛᖼೱೈᒖ͇ᇴ294.5412.8327.1307.0292.0Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fᒉຽќˢ1,6181,1121,5372,2513,052ᒉຽјώ(1,092)(730)( 994)(1,414)(1,896)ᒉຽͨӀ5263825438371,156ᒉຽ෱ϡ(3 30 )(2 76 )( 3 69 )( 529)( 70 5)ᒉຽӀৈ196105174308451Ӏिќˢஐᗝ31(13)(30)(28)Ӏिќˢ871486Ӏि෱ϡ(6)(6)(26)(39)(34)ԸྤӀৈஐᗝ00000׎΁ᒉຽγќˢஐᗝ( 61 )4856625 0ܧ૱ีϫஐᗝ00000ඁ݈৷ৈ137155217340473ٙ଀ඁ෱ϡ02(9)(20)(35)ඁޢ৷ৈ138157209320437EBITD A321249344511677Տ۵࠳ዶ(പ။̮)0.180.190.230.350.48Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fณ߹ܛજ̝ன߿ᒉྻ15728236108212ώഇ৷ৈ138157209320437Զᖞ̈́ᝊ೩125144170203226ώഇྻϡྤܛតજ(1 46 )(3 73 )( 1 30 )( 384)( 42 3)׎΁ᒉຽྤய̈́࢑ๅតજ411 01( 13 )(30)(2 8)ณ߹ܛજ̝ன߿Ըྤ(532)(350)( 444)( 398)(186)ྤώ͚΍ஐᗝ(6 00 )(2 73 )( 4 30 )( 390)( 18 0)ώഇܜഇԸྤតજ(8)(7)(14)(8)(6)׎΁ྤயតજ76( 70 )000Fr ee C ash Fl ow(372)(310)( 280)( 386)( 46)ณ߹ܛજ̝ன߿Ꮙྤ224768( 164)102(249)னܛᆧྤ0570 0 0 0ώഇ࢑ๅតજ32421603000ๅតજ࢑ഇܜ΁׎(1 00 )( 19 )( 1 64 )( 198)( 24 9)ώഇயϠன߹ܛณ(151)446( 372)( 188)(223)ᒉຽјώ Զᖞ̈́ᝊ೩ዚგ෱ϡᒉຽќˢᒉຽќˢᒉຽќˢ2008A59.7%7.8%20.4%12.1%2009A30.3%1