真明丽：电访摘要

ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡08͟ 1 Ѻ༱࡚̮1H1 01H 09தܜј(%)̳Φො੃ᒉќ730.1554.331.7 LEDΚځ໰1H10ᒉќ۞22.6ƦĂᅈ੼ٺ1H09۞9.1%ᒉќјώ(488.3)(394.1)23.9ͨӀ241.9160.251.0ͨӀதᆧΐ4.2࣎Ѻ̶ᕇҌ33.1%SGA෱ϡ(167.0)(142.1)17.5ΚᒉќͧࢦϤΝѐ25.6%Ҍࢫ22.6%׎΁ќৈ28.429.9(5.0)ྃ෭ќˢ྿4,220༱̮Ă੼ٺ࿰ഇEBIT103.248.0115.2ஐӀि෱ϡ(2.6)(2.5)3.3PBT100.645.4121.5࢑ඁ(1.3)(3.1)(57.1)ѣड़ඁதࢫҌ0.5%ඁޢஐӀ99.342.3134.6 Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ̫͟Ըྤࢦᕇ b ৌځᚊଠ۵ (01868.HK/1868 HK) ࿪ణၡࢋ HK$5.13 !޺ᆧ޺ჯ જၗՀາ 1ౘ౰ᇇ 2 852.2878.4270 3 desmond.chan@kgia.com Ŝ ᒉќ಼̈ᐹٺ࿰ഇĂඁޢஐӀ಼̂ѐᆧ134.8% Ŝ LEDి֝ܜຽચјݡயځ໰ Ŝ ͨӀதᆧΐ4.2࣎Ѻ̶ᕇĂҭҲٺԧࣇ࿰Ҥ ̚ഇੑಡܑனܪᚊ ԧࣇߑ͟ᄃৌځᚊგநᆸซҖ࿪ྖົᛉĂ੅ኢ׎̚ഇੑಡĄ1H10Ğੑѐͤٺ12͡ğඁޢஐӀ9,970༱പ̮ĂՏ۵࠳Ӏ0.108പ̮Ăѐᆧ134.8%Ąᒉќ7.30ᆆപ̮Ăѐᆧ31.7%Ăᐹٺԧࣇ࿰ҤĄ׎̚ĂLEDܜјݡயځ໰ᐹٺ࿰ഇĂ ́ˠחϫ࠻࠹Ăᒉќѐᆧ228.5%Ҍ1.65ᆆപ̮Ğྵԧࣇ࿰ഇ۞1.1ᆆപ̮੼΍50%ğĄგநᆸ޽΍ĂLED໰ځயݡᒉќѣ1/3ٺҋֽLED݋ዶ׎ྮ፶ĂߏLED፶ڽăඌ፶ă࢖྽፶ᄃLEDથຽ໰ځĄგநᆸ࠻рLED໰ځຽચĂЯࠎၮ˭யݡݡኳᐹளĂᆊॾϺͧТຽҲ40-50%νΠĂ׍੼ޘᚮۋ˧ĄТॡĂৌځᚊдБ઼Чгјςࡗѣ30छҋᒉظĂֻणϯᄃዚ઴̝ϡĂϏֽ2-3ז൪ᆧΐࢍѐ100छĄ̳Φ޺ᜈχౄБࢬ۞੨ዚშඛĂϫᇾдו፬LED໰ځᒉќĂ2010ੑѐјܜ3ࢺĂ2011-12ੑѐјܜ࿈7јĄ ဦ ̆Ĉ˯Ηѐੑಡᄃ࿪ణၡࢋ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ć౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ͨӀதᆧΐ4.2࣎Ѻ̶ᕇĂҭரҲٺԧࣇ࿰Ҥ 1H10ͨӀத྿33.1%Ăѐᆧ4.2࣎Ѻ̶ᕇĂҲٺ09ੑѐ۞34.4%ᄃԧࣇ࿰Ҥ۞33.7%Ą̳ΦܑϯĂ˯ΗѐͨӀத఼૱Ҳٺ˭ΗѐĂЯࠎ੼ͨӀ۞LED྅࿹፶Ğ38-40%ğ˭Ηѐᒉќͧࢦ྿55-65%Ą҂ณͨӀதೇ൩˧྽Ҳٺ࿰ഇĂԧࣇ૟2010ੑѐͨӀத࿰Ҥ಼̈˭࣒0.3࣎Ѻ̶ᕇҌ36.5%Ă2011ੑѐ˭࣒1.4࣎Ѻ̶ᕇҌ39.1%Ą ण୕Ϗֽ3ѐĂგநᆸҋҤͨӀத૟޺ᜈԼචĂநϤт˭ĈĞ1ğ੼ͨӀLED໰ځயݡᒉќᆧΐĄྍຽચ1H10ᒉќͧࢦ྿71%ٺĂ੼09ੑѐ۞63%Ăԧࣇ࿰Ҥ2010-11ੑѐ̶ҾᆧҌ76%ᄃ83%ćĞ2ğҋҖϠயLEDĂјώć࠷ᜈ༼޺ٺѣӄĞ3ğ૟Ҳᆊࣃ۞౻˧૜ะᄦ඀؎γҌ෸ݑĂϺѣӀٺ༼࠷јώᄃ೩ॎड़தĄ ᒔӀ࿰Ҥአፋ ѣᝥٺᒉќјܜᐹٺ࿰ഇĂԧࣇ૟2010ੑѐᒉќ࿰Ҥ̶Ҿ˯࣒Ҍ16.56ᆆă24.05ᆆᄃ32.45ᆆപ̮Ă಼ޘࠎЧ1.8%ă0.6%ᄃ2.4%Ąጐგԧࣇ˭አͨӀத࿰ҤĂҭ2010-12ੑѐඁޢஐӀ࿰ҤϺ̶Ҿ˯࣒Ҍ2.38ᆆă3.82ᆆᄃ5.11ᆆപ̮Ă಼ޘЧࠎ9.1%ă3.8%ᄃ5.6%ĂࣧЯт˭ĈĞ1ğSG&A෱ϡΚᒉќͧࢦҲٺ࿰ഇćĞ2ğ1H10ྃ෭ќˢ੼ٺ࿰ഇĂВ྿4220༱പ̮Ă׎̚ѯܝ੼າડనᇄࡁ൴Ă੒ᚥ2800༱പ̮Ă҃ೳэϺ੒ᚥ980༱പ̮Ą̳Φ࿰ࢍ˭ΗѐྃӄഠᇴϫᙷҬĄԧࣇ࿰Ҥྃ෭ќˢ࿰ࢍΚ̳Φ2010ੑѐᒉќ۞24%ćĞ3ğ1H10ѣड़ඁத྿0.5%ĂҲٺ࿰ഇĄ ̳ΦෞᆊᄃԸྤޙᛉ ԧࣇ6͡6͟ࢦາෞ৺ৌځᚊĂҌ̫̳Φ۵ᆊ̏˯ႚ22%྿޽ޮ෹෸֭Ă16%Ą۵ᆊϫ݈Σٽд2010-11ੑѐᒔӀ࿰Ҥ۞19.7ࢺᄃ12.2ࢺĂ̪Ҳٺ3ѐξ࠳தπӮ22ࢺĂ֭ྵέ៉LEDТຽĞ2011ѐξ࠳த14ࢺğҲ14%ĂϺྵࢶപ˯ξ໰ځТຽ࿩̀໰ځĞ02222.HKğԶឰ62%Ąԧࣇჯ޺Ķᆧ޺ķෞ৺Ăϫᇾᆊ7.2പ̮Ğ࠹ٺ༊2011ੑѐᒔӀ࿰Ҥ۞17ࢺğĂᔳӣ40.4%۞˯ᑫ۩มĄ ࢲᐍΒӣĈĞ1ğLEDႣ౅தҲٺ࿰ഇćĞ2ğLEDྮ፶۞ᑕќ૳ഠ͇ᇴྵܜĂϺٛܜྤܛ׹ᖼฉഇćĞ3ğԸྤຫৈگજĄ Ҍ12͡31͟͹ᒉќˢ ͹ᒉӀማ ᒉຽӀማEBITDAஐӀማ Տ۵࠳Ӏ(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$)2009A1,1123821052491570.192010F1,6566052043742380.262011F2,4059413765793820.422012F3,2451,2815317575110.56Ҍ12͡31͟EV/SalesEV/EBIT EV/EBITDAத࠳ξEV/Inv. Cஐྤயаಡத(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(%)2009A3.941.217.526.51.14.92010F2.923.212.719.81.27.02011F2.213.89.012.31.110.32012F1.710.17.19.21.112.4யຽ6.8 - 3.87.25/60540.4916 87 601.2 39.83.7 41.4 20.4; -13.5; 134.2ܛன10.4; -14.3; 9952 ฉ۵ᆊ (Ҳ/੼):12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ (പ။̮)ξࣃ (Ȉᆆ̮/Ѻ༱ܛ࡚):̍ຽ˯ႚ/˭฀۩ม (%)߹఼дγ۵ᇴ (Ѻ༱۵):˯ႚ۩มଵЩ (percentile, %)̙צ̂۵ڌೠଠ۵ᇴ (%):۵Ӏќৈத-12/10Ҥ (%)ڌ۵ࢋ͹ (%):Տ۵ஐࣃ -12/10Ҥ(പ။̮)3 ࣎͡πӮ͟јΣณ (Ѻ༱۵):ᆊॾՏ۵ஐࣃͧ -12/10Ҥ (x)۵ᆊ඗၆ܑன % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)ஐ࢑ๅͧத -12/10Ҥ (%)னܑ၆࠹۵ᆊ % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)Fan Ben ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡08͟ 2 Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fྤயᓁᗝ3,1243,9634,2674,9935,531߹જྤய1,7142,4272,3502,7213,115 னܛ̈́ൺഇԸྤ4711,298889759576 хఱ9088109421,2431,588 ᑕќ૳ഠ̈́ைፂ235170296395516 જྤய߹΁׎991 492 2332343 6જྤய߹ܧ1,4111,5351,9182,2732,416 ܜഇԸྤ1,1601,2241,4841,6711,626 ׽ؠྤய00000 ̦ีྤய251311434601790࢑ๅᓁᗝ6117288581,2781,415ๅ࢑જ߹2956998299491,085 ᑕ;૳ഠ̈́ைፂ1 86971 8825332 8 ൺഇࣄഠ185 215 2152152 1 ̦ี࢑ๅ91811 2017523 6ๅ࢑ഇܜ3172929329329 ܜഇࣄഠ3172929329329 ׎΁࢑ๅ̈́໤౯00000۵ڌᝋৈᓁᗝ2,5133,2353,4093,7154,116 ೼఼۵ώ769191919 1 ྤώ̳᎕1,2461,8121,8121,8121,812 ዶ࠳঻ܲ1,1851,3251,5051,8122,213 পҾ۵ώ76000Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2 00 8A2 00 9A2 01 0F2 01 1F2 01 2Fѐјܜத (% )ᒉຽќˢ2.9(31.3)49.045.235.0ᒉຽӀৈ(21.4)(46.2)93.783.941.4EBITDA(4.6)(22.5)50.354.530.8ඁޢ৷ৈ(58.5)14.051.460.933.7Տ۵࠳ዶ(58.5)7.134.060.933.7ᒔӀਕ˧̶ژ (%)ᒉຽͨӀத32.534.436.539.139.5ᒉຽӀৈத12.19.512.315.616.4EBITDA Ӏৈத19.922.422.624.123.3ඁޢ৷ৈத8.514.114.315.915.7πӮྤயಡ࿌த4.74.45.88.39.7πӮஐࣃಡ࿌த5.65.57.210.713.1ؠᘦ \ ᐺๅਕ˧̶ژͨ࢑ๅͧத (%)24.322.525.234.434.4ஐ࢑ๅͧத (%)(5.3)(11.0)1.513.016.2Ӏिܲᅪࢺᇴ(X)35.618.07.79.815.6Ӏि̈́ൺഇๅܲᅪࢺᇴ (X)6.10.30.50.81.1Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X)28.54.87.44.57.9Cash Flow/ Int. & ST Debt (X)6.80.10.40.30.5߹જͧத (X)5.83.52.82.92.9ిજͧத (X)2.72.31.71.61.4ๅ࢑ஐ (Ѻ༱പ̮)(132)(356)52483666Տ۵ྤफ̶़ژ (HK$)Տ۵࠳ዶ0.180.190.260.420.56ዶ࠳ܛՏ۵ன0.260.300.410.590.74Տ۵ஐࣃ3.303.993.724.064.50Տ۵ᒉќ2.131.371.812.633.54EBITDA\shr0.420.310.410.630.83Տ۵۵Ӏ0.120.030.060.080.12ڶېྤயྻϡྤய׹ᖼத (X)0.60.30.40.50.6ᑕќ૳ഠ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ53.155.965.260.058.0хఱ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ303.7405.4327.0310.0295.0ᑕ;૳ഠ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ62.248.565.163.061.0னܛᖼೱೈᒖ͇ᇴ294.5412.8327.1307.0292.0Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fᒉຽќˢ1,6181,1121,6562,4053,245ᒉຽјώ(1,092)(730)(1,051)(1,464)(1,965)ᒉຽͨӀ5263826059411,281ᒉຽ෱ϡ(3 30 )(2 76 )( 4 01 )( 565)( 75 0)ᒉຽӀৈ196105204376531Ӏिќˢஐᗝ31(13)(31)(29)Ӏिќˢ871475Ӏि෱ϡ(6)(6)(26)(39)(34)ԸྤӀৈஐᗝ00000׎΁ᒉຽγќˢஐᗝ( 61 )4856625 0ܧ૱ีϫஐᗝ00000ඁ݈৷ৈ137155247407553ٙ଀ඁ෱ϡ02(10)(24)(41)ඁޢ৷ৈ138157238382511EBITD A321249374579757Տ۵࠳ዶ(പ။̮)0.180.190.260.420.56Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fณ߹ܛજ̝ன߿ᒉྻ15728195172267ώഇ৷ৈ138157238382511Զᖞ̈́ᝊ೩125144170203226ώഇྻϡྤܛតજ(1 46 )(3 73 )( 2 00 )( 382)(