第五届全球量子计算市场年度调研报告：持续进步 变革将至

Bob SorensenChief Analyst for Quantum ComputingHyperion Research, LLC QC Market Executive Summary/Highlights •The global quantum computing (QC) market is estimated to have been worth $1.07 billion in 2024, with aprojected average annual growth rate of 27%, driving the global market to $2.2 billion on 2027 •Based on a survey of 115 respondents representing 82 QC companies: •41% estimate their organization’s revenues will increase by more than 25% in 2025, up from 36.6% in2024•18% are looking to 2025 gains to be on the order of 11-25%, almost double last year’s percentage of •Partnerships have become a fundamental activity within QC supplier sector•83% had partnerships with other QC supplier(s) •74% hadpartnershipswith at least one government research organization•71% had partnerships with at least one QC end user •Anticipated cloud and on-premises revenues will be nearing parity in 2027•Total on-prem activities projected to account for 46% of QC market in 2027•Up from 31% in last year’s market study •Modeling/simulation anticipated to remain the #1 algorithm by revenue in 2027•Significant appearance of mixed QC algorithms follows refinement ofOtheroption from previous years•Optimization and AI remain major algorithms QC Market Executive Summary/Highlights (cont.) •Aspiring QC end users are looking for new algorithms and ways to address concerns with future classical •But many are still exploring for the sake of exploration•One in four are looking at real-time compute opportunities•Interest in lowering total compute costs is gaining traction▪2023 Survey: 9.0%▪2025 Survey: 23.5%•Not so with reducing power/cooling costs▪2023 Survey: 17.3% •About half of the respondents (52%) expect the availability of utility class QC in the next 2-5 years•About one in three say five years or more•About 8% say they are already here or will be in the next year •Almost half of the respondents see a chance for a quantum winter•Significant jump from last year in ‘very high’ from 14% to 24%•Combined with drop in ‘somewhat unlikely’ from 33% to 25% •LLMs–and likely generative AI in general–are seen as near-term competitor for QC end user interest by47% of respondents, up from 42% last year QC Market Estimate: $1.07 billion in 2024 27% annual growth rate drives global QC market to $2.2 billion in 2027 QC Market Projection Considerations Key factors contributing to growing QC market complexity •D-Wave FY 2024 bookings exceeded $23 million, a 120% increase over FY 2023, due in large part to asingle system purchase by Davidson Technologies•QuEra was awarded a $42 million contract in 2024 by Japan’s AIST to deliver an on-premises QC •Losses generally, and sometimes significantly, outweigh revenues •Company A posted revenues of $10.8 million with a net loss of $201.0 million for 2024•Company B recognized revenue of $43.1 million with a net loss of $331.6 million for 2024 •Most QC companies are private, and most intend to stay that way for at least the next few years•Limited financial reporting requirements•The bulk of funding inputs are not revenue based but instead come from VC or government sources •External funding numbers are growing substantially and will likely skew markets •PsiQuantum will deliver QC in 2027 funded by the Australian government for $620 million•Honeywell announced the competition of a $300 million equity fundraise for Quantinuum•Quantum computing startups have already raised $1.5 billion in venture funding in 50 deals ($30million/deal average) compared of nearly $963 million in 77 deals in 2022 ($12 million/deal average) QC Supplier Survey:Road Map and Key Demographics 2024 QC Market Dynamics Study Roadmap Formulate global status and prospects from a data-driven perspective •Conducted QC supplier survey to gather data and insights on QC market dynamics•Many thanks for assistance from various QC consortia in reaching out to their respective •Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C)(Project Sponsor)•European Quantum Industry Consortium (QuIC)•Quantum Industry Canada•Japan Quantum STrategic industry Alliance for Revolution (Q-STAR)•Australian Quantum Alliance•UKQuantum •Gathered results to span: •Geographic variety, company size (total and QC-related revenues), market concentration,QC industry sentiment, and impressions on general trends in the sector •Analyzed results from 115 respondents representing 82 different companies•Individual responses for industry-wide questions•Combined single response for multiple inputs from single organizations QC Supplier Demographics: Location and Activity Casting a wide regional and functional net QC Supplier Demographics: Public/Private 80 of respondents’ organizations were private, 20% public •Very few private firms plan to go public inthe next two years (~1%) •40% have no current plans•25% looking at 3 years or more•But more than one quarter don’t know •For the 16 firms that are currently public,81% have been that way for more than fivey