科技日报 -美股盘后-20260520

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 20, 2026∙PAID Good afternoon.QQQs -60bpson a day that that Mizuho aptly called “unwind of anunwind.” The early morning started with software and internet rallying strongly at theexpense of semis, which were down 3% at one point while software was up 1%+. Theday finished with semis +1% and software -1% as the software rally fizzled out. 下午好。纳指100 ETF (QQQs)今⽇下跌60个基点，瑞穗银⾏将其贴切地称为“平仓之平仓”。清晨时分，软件和互联⽹板块强劲反弹，⽽半导体板块则表现低迷，⼀度下跌3%，此时软件板块上涨超过1%。随着软件板块的反弹势头消散，全天收盘时半导体板块上涨1%，⽽软件板块下跌1%。 TMT Mo was down 7%+ again at one point for a peak to trough decline of 20%+before putting in a hammer and finishing flat on the day. TMT动量因⼦⼀度再次下跌超过7%，从峰值到⾕值的跌幅超过20%，随后⾛出锤头线，当⽇平盘收官。 What caused the reversal?No big news came out — we think largely factor see sawand technical as SOX hit the 20d, which we had expected. This weekend we wrotehow we expected an early week decline into the 20d before a bounce and we flaggedthe hit in TMTB Slack early morning: 是什么导致了反转？并没有重⼤新闻传出⸺我们认为很⼤程度上是因⼦间的拉锯和技术⾯因素，因为费城半导体指数（SOX）触及了20⽇均线，这在我们的预期之内。本周末我们曾写道，预计周初会下跌⾄20⽇均线，随后出现反弹，并在今天清晨的TMTB Slack频道中提醒了这⼀触点： We trimmed some off that trade but expect the 10d to be hit from the undersidebefore or right after NVDA. Right now, ourbasecase continues to be some chop near-term as rates, hawkishly shifting Fed expectations, and Iran have put somewhat of adamper on the AI semis animal spirits (more of a breather — AI trade still feels verymuch intact but macro headwinds bear watching). That means we’re being moretactical than normal in our short- and medium-term books. 我们对该交易进⾏了部分减仓，但预计在NVDA财报发布前或紧随其后，股价会从下⽅回抽触及10⽇均线。⽬前，我们的基准预测仍是短期内维持震荡，因为利率、美联储鹰派预期的转变以及伊朗局势，在⼀定程度上抑制了AI半导体板块的亢奋情绪（更像是⼀种喘息⸺AI交易看起来依然稳固，但宏观阻⼒值得关注）。这意味着我们在中短期账簿的操作上⽐平时更具战术性。 Generally, we’re not hearing investors aggressively add gross or trim yet despite thepull back — a lot of wait-and-see with investors re-evaluating where the best place toput money to work is. We remain on our toes and on the lookout for tea leaves. 总的来看，尽管出现了回调，我们还没有听到投资者在激进地增加总敞⼝或进⾏减仓⸺许多⼈处于观望状态，重新评估资⾦的最佳去向。我们保持警惕，并密切关注任何蛛丝⻢迹。 On the macro front, things still remain wobbly. Oil was flat, but investors have theireyes on yields, which rose another 6-9bps across the curve while fed rateexpectations have shifted to 80% chances of a hike by the end of the year. The 30year is hitting highs not seen since the 2007. 宏观⽅⾯，形势依然动荡。原油价格持平，但投资者正密切关注收益率，曲线各期限收益率⼜上升了6-9个基点，⽽美联储加息预期已转向年底前加息概率达80%。30年期国债收益率正触及2007年以来的最⾼⽔平。 10 year now at 4.67% and question is how long will rates continue to rise and how far. 10年期国债收益率⽬前处于4.67%，问题在于利率还将持续上升多久，以及会升到什么程度。 The glass half full is that we saw real money buying in 2023/2024 when rates hit upagainst the 4.8-5% levels. Glass half empty is that — and I saw Citrini make thisargument — the “AI capex is a double edged sword” meaning that the economy cannow withstand a lot more given AI investment driving GDP, but that also means ratescould stay higher before recession fears put a bid under bonds. 乐观的⼀⾯是，我们看到在2023/2024年利率触及4.8-5%⽔平时，有实钱资⾦⼊场买⼊。悲观的⼀⾯是⸺我也看到Citrini提出了这个观点⸺即“AI资本⽀出是⼀把双刃剑”，这意味着由于AI投资驱动GDP，经济现在的承受能⼒⼤⼤增强，但也意味着在衰退担忧引发债券买盘之前，利率可能会在更⻓时间内保持⾼位。 Let’s get to the good stuff… 让我们进⼊正题…… AI/SEMIS frontierofLLMswillbeespeciallyformative.IamveryexcitedtojointheteamhereandgetbacktoR&D.Iremaindeeplypassionateabouteducationandplantoresumemyworkonitintime.L76.2K13Kıhl105K12M Hearing he got$100M pre-IPO series H sign on. Good get for the Anthropic team. 听说他获得了1亿美元的IPO前H轮签约⾦。这对Anthropic团队来说是个不错的收获。 Trainium names led the way higher today led byALAB +13%, CRDO +8%, andMRVL +4%catalyzed by aTheInformationarticle which had a lot of positivesnippets around customers wanting to use Trainium: Trainium相关概念股今⽇领涨，ALAB上涨13%，CRDO上涨8%，MRVL上涨4%。这⼀涨势由TheInformation的⼀篇⽂章催化，⽂中包含了⼤量关于客户希望使⽤Trainium的利好⽚段： Anthropic and OpenAI, which have struck multibillion-dollar investment andinfrastructure deals with Amazon, have already committed to renting large amountsof current and future Trainium capacity. Anthropic和OpenAI已与亚⻢逊达成数⼗亿美元的投资及基础设施协议，并已承诺租⽤⼤量当前及未来的Trainium算⼒。 Now, recent software improvements are prompting smaller developers to considermoving more workloads to Trainium, half a dozen people who use or work with thechips said. 据六位使⽤或从事该芯⽚开发的⼈⼠透露，近期软件层⾯的改进正促使规模较⼩的开发者考虑将更多⼯作负载迁移⾄Trainium。 The Trainium theme has gained steam over the last few weeks and Gavin Baker addedsome fuel to the trade with his comments at Sohn. We flagged it in our weekly onSunday: Trainium主题在过去⼏周内持续升温，Gavin Baker在Sohn会议上的⾔论也为这⼀交易趋势推波助澜。我们在周⽇的周报中也重点标记了这⼀点： ALAB chart looks a lot better is arguably the cleanest way to express Trainium long.I hear increasing conversations among investors about how to express the tradeoutside AMZN. We thought Gavin Baker had some good comments at Sohn thisweek: ALAB的图表看起来好多了，这可以说是表达看好Trainium最清晰的⽅式。我听到投资者之间越来越多地讨论如何在AMZN之外表达这⼀交易。我们认为Gavin Baker本周在Sohn会议上的评论⾮常精彩： “Trainium by far the most underestimated.Trainium is going to be to 2026,especially in the second half of this year when Trainium 3 really