预期重置；焦点转向新软件及2027年内存价格的影响

Kazuo Yoshikawa, CFAEquity Analyst leymufg.comHidetaka Suzuki Expectations Reset; Focus Shiftsto New Software, Impact of2027 Memory Prices Hidetaka.Suzuki@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8402 Consumer Electronics | Japan Stock Rating Industry ViewIn-LinePrice target￥8,000Up/downside to price target (%)Shr price, close (May 20, 2026)￥7,500Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)￥8,646.2Div yld (03/27e) (%)2.6Fiscal Year Ending03/26 03/27e03/28e03/29e We lower our PT but maintain our EW rating. expectations, as it factors in higher Switch 2 hardware pricing and YoY decline in unitsales, as well as roughly ￥10Obn of cost impact from higher component prices(primarily memory) and tariffs. In addition, the success of Pokemon Pokopia and theassociated recovery in Switch 2 sell-through again demonstrates the company'sability to drive business with new software titles. That said, we see risks fromdemand after the price hike and from prospects that, in 2027, higher memory pricescould be a larger cost headwind than in 2026. We do not have sufficient convictionto turn more bullish and therefore keep our EW rating. NewPT￥8,o0o:We lower ourPTto￥8,000after updatingourforecasts.OurPTis again based on P/E 20x our FY3/28 EPS forecast, the multiple seen in 2018-19 (i.e,mid-cycle phase of Switch)( Exhibit 1) Updating forecasts:(1)For Switch2hardware/software unit sales,we lower ourFY3/27-28 forecasts for Switch 2 hardware unit sales to reflect FY3/27 guidance andimpact from price hikes. We lower our software unit sales forecasts accordingly. (2)On hardware GPM,Nintendo'sestimate of￥1oObn cost impact was smaller than ourprior assumption. We attribute the lower figure to the company aggressivelysecuring component inventory in 2025, the launch year for Switch 2, and weconsequently raise our FY3/27 hardware GPM forecast. That said, in FY3/28, weexpect GPM improvement to remain constrained even as the software weighting intotal sales rises, given the impact from higher memory prices. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Differencevs.consensus:Our OPforecasts are17%belowIFIS consensus inFY3/27-28. That said, buy-side expectations for FY3/27 have already come down Key points ahead: (1) Whether a major title (such as a new3D Mario offering) isannounced ahead of the holiday season; (2) spillover effects from The SuperMarioGalaxy Movie; and (3) updates on US IEEPA tariff refunds, where our US economicsteam expects 80% of the total to be refunded by June under its fast/high scenario(Global Economic Briefing: The Tariff Pivot (28Apr2026))(Exhibit15). For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions onand trading securities held by a research analyst account. What would makeus bullish: The announcement of strong new software thatincreases the likelihood of driving hardware demand. Maintain EW rating Updatingourearningsforecasts We lower our FY3/27 and FY3/28 forecasts,mainly due to substantial reductions to ourSwitch 2 hardware and software sales assumptions. We raise our Switch 2 hardware grossmargin forecast for FY3/27, reflecting a) the fact that Nintendo's assumed impact wasbelow our prior estimate and b) our belief that the company had aggressivelyprocuredcomponents in 2025, the launch year for the Switch 2. That said, we still expect grossmargins for both hardware and packaged software to decline up ahead, given risk in 2027of higher memory prices emerging as a bigger cost tailwind than in 2026. Difference vs.guidance: Our FY3/27 Switch 2 hardware unit sales forecast is 17mn, abovethe company's 16.5mn forecast.Our Switch 2 software forecast is 7Omn units, also aboveguidance for 60mn.On this basis, ourFY3/27OP forecast is￥395.9bn, above ￥370.0bnguidance.However, given our more cautious take on the impact of higher componentprices, our FY3/27 gross margin forecast of 41.9% is likely below the company'sassumption. (1) Switch 2 hardware unit sales: The company is raising prices globally, while concerns about demand in Europe and the US remain.The companyforecast also called for unitsales well below our previousforecast. Based on these factors, we lower our Switch 2hardware unit sales forecast for FY3/27 from 22mn to 17mn and for FY3/28 from 23mn to18mn units (Exhibit 5),We expect the post-launch demand strength to fall away in FY3/27 and forecast a YoY decline in unit sales. In FY3/28 and beyond, however, we expect unit sales to increase,driven by the release of major titles such as Mario and Z