2025年全球药品使用情况：展望至2029年

Global Webinar A u g u s t2 7 ,2 0 2 5 Today’s panelists GM,Thought Leadershipand Marketing, Canada Mark Omoto Alan ThomasSenior Director,Thought Leadership,Japan Sarah RickwoodVP, Thought Leadership,EMEA Howard ChenHead of Services,MC& PI, China Luke GreenwaltVP, Thought Leadership andInnovation, U.S. Moderator:Murray AitkenExecutive Director, IQVIA Institute Sydney ClarkVP, Consulting Services,Latin America Research Highlights:Michael KleinrockResearch Director, IQVIA Institute •Growth outlook unchanged at 5-8% CAGR, reaching $2.4Tn by2029, driven by immunology and oncology despite both slowinglater in the forecast, and endocrinology, especially diabetes andobesity A total of 394 novel active substances have launched globally inthe past 5 years, with fewer launched in various regions Number of novel active substances (NAS) launched globally and in selected countries, 2005–2024 Per capita medicine use varies by region, with Japan and WesternEurope having more than double the use of most other regions Historical and projected per capita use of medicine by region, 2014–2029 Global growth will continue to be driven by new and existingbrands in leading developed countries Global Spending and Growth, Const $US Billion 2019-2029, Excluding COVID Vaccines andTherapeutics Spending and volume growth are following diverging trends byregion Spending and volume growth by region Oncology and obesity to lead growth through 2029 whileimmunology and diabetes growth to slow Global historic and forecast growth for top 20 therapy areas Cancer medicine spending rose to $252Bn globally in 2024 andgrowth is expected to slow, reaching $441Bn by 2029 Global oncology spending,US$Bn, 2015–2029 Immunology spending growth to slow to 3.5–6.5 % through 2029from biosimilar impact as volume growth continues at 6–9% annually Global immunology spending and growth Diabetes spending growth accelerating in many developedmarkets associated with GLP-1 adoption, U.S. slows to 1-4% net Diabetes spending and growth Global obesity spending has accelerated in the past 2 years fromnovel drugs with upside if more widely reimbursed Global obesity spending and growth Growthoutlook unchanged at 5-8% CAGR to 2029, driven byimmunology, oncology, diabetes and obesity Global NAS in the last five years totaled 394 up from254 five years earlier, but China-only NAS, and U.S.launches delayed in reaching other markets. Lower-income countries get fewer than half of novel drugs Rising #s of NAS but access varies1 Patient use of medicines grew by 14% over the pastfive years but is expected to slow to 4% through 2029.Per capita use of medicines is higher in higher incomecountriesImmunology, endocrinology, and oncology, have Slowing volume outlook2 exceeded the global 15% average growth in medicineuse in the past five years, driven primarily by substantialnumbers of novel products and wider access. Therapy area historic volume3 Growth in developed economies is accelerating drivenby new products and wider use of existing brandedmedicines offset by patent expiries. Spending and Growth Drivers4 Major advances are expected to continue, especially inoncology, immunology, diabetes and obesity. Notablesmall molecule innovations are also expected in thesediseases as well as neurology. Therapy area Outlook5 United States The US Market continues to be a multi-industry growth engine $1 Trillion in U.S. spend in 2024; Growth is driven by a small set of products The perception of high drug costs has in part been driven by thecost of innovation into small high need patient populations As more high-cost treatments launch, the narrative of US drug pricing remains in the news Does the US shoulder the globalburden of innovation? •Commercial viability of small populationtherapies depends on US price points•4x increase in median annual cost since2022; driven by oncology and orphandrugs•Retail drug prices have increased astraditional pricing ceilings are breached Is the industry entering a boom or bust cycle? While some launchessucceed, many struggle Branded Products* Exceeding$100MGross Sales in YR1 LaunchGross Sales >$1M; Excludes Hormones, Contraceptives, Diagnostic Equipment, Covid Vaccines & Tx, Line Extensions, Medical Products, and Biosimilars (n=559) What does Modern Launch inthe US look like? •~1 out of 5 drugs hit $100M in 2015-2019; ~1 out of 10 drugs in 2020-2024•Success comes acrosssegmentsfrom large pharma to emergingbiotech•Half of the +$1B products from thelast decade launched in 2022-23 Post-pandemic launches are lower trajectory; Success is possible Zebound&Mounjaroare the fastest US launches ever observed Impressive growth and expansion despite supply chain and market access headwind •Combined, the GLP-1s are over$100B in annual revenues in theUS excluding compoundedagents•Mounjaro&Zepboundbothreached $1B a month in sales bythe end of their first year onmarket•Less than 10% of obesepopulation has been treated Bey