2023私人市场视野预测未来五年私人资本规模的增长（英）2026

Forecasting the growth of private capital AUM over Contents Overview Institutional Research Group Nathan Schwartz, CFASenior QuantitativeResearch Analyst Global private markets in 2030 Evergreens pull ahead Jacobie FullertonQuantitative Research Analystjacobie.fullerton@pitchbook.com Forecasts by fund strategy Private equity pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Venture capital Private debt 13 Real estate 15 Real assets Appendix: Methodology References Overview For nearly four decades, private markets operated with apowerful and largely invisible tailwind: the secular decline ininterest rates. From the early 1980s, when the federal fundsrate peaked near 20%, through the long post-global-financialcrisis stretch when policy rates anchored close to zero formuch of the 2010s, nearly every corner of the private markets The backdrop of the past two years has thrown severaloff-speed pitches. US tariff expansion, lingering inflationpressures, and renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle Easthave elevated uncertainty and may be weighing on investorrisk appetite. While private markets have proven relatively Since 2022, a reset has been underway. The rapid shift froma decade of near-zero interest rates to a persistently higher-rate environment has reshaped the economics of privatecapital investing. Deals that once penciled out no longerclear. Transaction volume slowed, distributions fell to historic Looking ahead, we forecast that global private market AUMmanaged by GPs will reach roughly $26.7 trillion by the end of2030, up from about $20 trillion today. This trajectory implies a5.7% annualized growth rate, which is slower than the historical A key driver of our 2026 outlook is the continued expansionof evergreen vehicles that promise access to private marketswith a veneer of enhanced liquidity. In the US, evergreenfunds aimed at private wealth investorsreached roughly $534billion in 2025, doubling over the last three years. Headlinesabout elevated redemption requests, particularly in credit-focused evergreen funds, have heightened concerns about thedurability of these products. These concerns largely reflect sharply lower and highly concentrated in a handful of AI-linkedfranchises. Real estate is still marked by weak fundraisingand lagging performance. Real assets are enjoying recordcommitments tied to digitalization, decarbonization, and Any long-range forecast comes with uncertainty. We accountfor this by using probabilistic models to forecast a distributionof outcomes. The base case represents the median outcomeacross a wide range of simulation results, while the bottom andtop quartiles provide context for potential downside and upside Insurers have emerged as a pivotal client base for publiclylisted alternative managers, particularly in private credit. Thetop alternative asset managers now manage a collective $1.4trillion in insurance-related AUM, with several newer entrantsbuilding or buying dedicated insurance platforms to accelerate Private markets aren’t going anywhere, but their operatingenvironment is changing. Growth in the decade ahead is likelyto be slower than in the era of falling rates and easy leverage,yet it should more closely reflect what private markets were On the drawdown side of our forecasts, variances in fundstrategy performance and fundraising momentum lead to awide dispersion of outcomes. PE and private debt still look to Global private markets in 2030 Our base case projects that global private market AUM willreach $26.7 trillion by the end of 2030, implying a 5.7% CAGRoff the $20.3 trillion asset base in 2025. This trajectoryreflects many of the same tailwinds we highlighted last year—awidening investor base, growing wealth and DC channels, and capital is now a central element of private market growth. Weexpect evergreen AUM to climb toward $5.2 trillion over thenext five years, with credit and infrastructure strategies at thecore. On the other hand, recent gated redemptions in certain Despite the attention surrounding evergreen structures,traditional drawdown vehicles still represent the bulk of assetsunder management. PE remains the largest strategy, forecastto reach $8.8 trillion by 2030, a 5.2% CAGR. PE dealmaking and To reflect the inherent uncertainty in the outlook, ourforecasting model incorporates a range of potential outcomes.Our upside case reflects a more robust global expansion, easierfinancial conditions, and an acceleration of capital formationthat would push private markets to more than $34 trillion by theend of 2030. Our downside case reflects scenarios marked by VC is a different story: Our base case does not assume materialgrowth over the forecast period, but we have wider upside anddownside bands to reflect the unusually high variability aroundAI-driven outcomes. Our base case sees VC AUM growing nearly $5.5 trillion. In a downside case, where AI fails to deliverpromised value, VC assets could shrink to around $2.8 trillion. Real