2026年东南亚私人资本细分（英）2026

Private Capital Contents Institutional Research Group Market overview Ansel TanDirector, APAC Private Capitalansel.tan@pitchbook.com Dealmaking A word from BNP Paribas Melanie TngResearch Analyst,APAC Private Capital Exits Fundraising pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on March 11, 2026 BNP Paribas’ Securities Servicesbusiness supports your private With our global reach, full suite ofsolutions, and staff expertise, we’reyour end-to-end asset servicing partneracross all strategies and asset classes.We invest in people, risk management Awards: World’s Best Bank for SecuritiesServices2024 – Euromoney Best Bank for Cross-Border Custody2025 –Asian Investor FOR THOSE WHOMOVETHE WORLD Market overview Southeast Asia’s macroeconomic outlook improved modestlyentering 2025. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revisedthe region’s growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upward to4.5% and 4.4%, respectively, from earlier projections of 4.3%for both years. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected PE has proven comparatively resilient. While deal activitymoderated from 2024 levels in 2025, capital deploymentremains broadly in line with historical norms. PE growth/expansion capital continues to dominate, particularly in B2Band infrastructure-linked sectors, where earnings visibility However, liquidity remains the region’s defining constraint.Exit activity across both VC and PE remains subdued,with IPO markets shallow and M&A depth limited. Even aseconomic growth strengthens, capital recycling continues to Despite firmer macro forecasts, private capital marketshave not experienced a commensurate rebound. VCactivity continued to contract in 2025, reflecting structuralcapital stack constraints rather than macro deterioration.Fundraising remains pressured, nondomestic LP Dealmaking Venture capital potential outcomes relative to larger, more unified marketssuch as the US, India, or China. VC deal activity continued its downward trend Investor caution has also been shaped by governanceconcerns. High-profile setbacks such as the eFisheryscandal, though not recent, have had a lasting psychologicalimpact. Trust, once impaired, takes time to rebuild. As aresult, diligence standards have tightened, and the bar VC deal activity in Southeast Asia extended its multiyearcontraction in 2025, underscoring a continued recalibrationrather than a short-term pause. Total deal value fell 33.9%YoY to $6.3 billion across 805 transactions, while deal count While global monetary tightening and reduced risk appetiteremain important drivers, Southeast Asia’s slowdown alsoreflects deeper ecosystem challenges. The region lacks aconsistent track record of distributions to LPs, largely dueto a weak exit environment and persistent difficulty scaling Cross-border capital participation provides additionalevidence of this retrenchment. Deal activity involvingnondomestic investors has moderated, consistent with increasing difficulty securing anchor capital. The visiblerecalibration of major regional allocators has reinforced this The contraction has not been evenly distributed acrossstages. By deal count, 2025 saw pre-seed/seed activity fall toits lowest share of total deals in the past decade, indicating In contrast, the share of later-stage VC has steadilyincreased, while early-stage VC has remained relativelystable as a proportion of overall activity. Capital isconcentrating behind fewer, more mature companies with This reflects more than cyclical caution. It exposes structuralweaknesses in the region’s capital stack. NondomesticLPs have scaled back commitments, domestic institutional Larger rounds, longer intervals Despite declining aggregate activity, the median VC dealvalue increased from $2.7 million in 2024 to $4 million in2025. This reflects a bifurcation: Fewer companies areraising capital, but those that do are securing larger, more At the same time, the median time between VC roundscontinued to lengthen, reaching 1.9 years. Extendedfundraising cycles indicate more difficult capital formation The combination of slower unicorn formation and thesustained aggregate valuation suggests a growing backlogof late-stage companies operating in a constrained liquidity remains elevated Despite weaker deal activity, Southeast Asia’s unicornpopulation remains elevated. The number of total activeunicorns reached 38 in 2025, broadly flat from 2024 levelsbut significantly higher than in the pre-2021 period. However, This dynamic reinforces a broader theme in Southeast Asia’sVC ecosystem: Deployment has matured faster than exitcapacity. Without deeper realization channels, valuation This divergence highlights a structural shift. The surgein unicorn creation during the 2021 window of capitalexpansion has given way to a period of consolidation Infrastructure:Two of the largest deals, Airwallex andEvolution Data Centres, sit squarely in financial and digitalinfrastructure. Rather than backing highly speculativeconsumer g