压力下的可负担性：公用事业公司如何在管理不稳定的供应链的同时保护纳税人

How Utilities Can Protect the RatepayerWhile Managing Volatile Supply Chains In the U.S, residential electricity prices have risen by 32% since 2020.1Forthe average household, that’s an extra $35 each month. This spike is not because households are using more electricity. The costof delivering power has increased, and the price spike shows no signs of Nearly 4 million households are projected to face disconnection for non-payment in 2025, an increase of nearly half a million compared to the One in six are already behind on utility bills, collectively owing $23 billion toelectric and gas utilities. For low-and middle-income families, energy now Something other than broad price pressure is driving these prices. Understanding what utilities can doabout it requires separating costs outside their control from those within their control.This paper identifiesthat driver and lays out three moves senior leaders can take to measurably reduce cost exposure What’s Driving Up Electricity Prices? There isn’t a single cause behind the rise.Instead, several pressures have converged: aginginfrastructure, fuel cost volatility, AI-driven loadgrowth, supply chain scarcity, and rising capital The following describes each driver based ondirectly observable data. The relative magnitudesare characterized directionally. The precise shareeach driver contributes to any individual utility’s rate Top Three Drivers of Electricity Price Spikes Three drivers account for over three-quarters of the total increase: •Fuel and generation volatility •Infrastructure investment and operations •Other structural costs Each one tells a different story about why the bill is rising and whether utilitymanagement can do anything about it. Driver Fuel and Generation Volatility Fuel costs rise and fall with global gas markets. Utilities can hedge at themargins, but they cannot control Henry Hub. Gas now supplies 43% of U.S.power generation and often sets the marginal price in wholesale markets.3 When gas hit $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2022, more thantriple its 2020 price, those costs flowed straight to residential bills through fuel Prices have eased, but years of higher gas costs are now built into ratesettlements nationwide. Infrastructure Investment and Operations& Maintenance (O&M) Driver Unlike fuel costs, infrastructure costs do not reverse. When a utility replacesaging equipment, the cost enters the rate base and stays there for the life of the Distribution capital spending increased 160% between 2003 and 2023, andthe replacement pipeline is not shrinking.5Over 70% of U.S. transmissionlines are more than 25 years old, and 55% of distribution transformers are at On top of that, the ongoing cost of maintaining an aging system is substantial.Vegetation management alone runs at $7–9 billion per year industry-wide,7with Residential customers bear a larger share of these costs because they receivepower at a lower voltage, which requires more infrastructure per kilowatt-hour Other Structural Costs: Capacity Marketsand Return on Equity Driver The remainder reflects costs embedded in how the grid is financed andoperated. Data center load growth has driven capacity prices sharply higher. In PJM Interconnection’s latest capacity auction revenue rose 82%, with lessthan 5% of related infrastructure costs recovered from data center owners. The Separately, allowed Return on Equity (ROE), which accounts for 15–20% of theresidential bill, also remains elevated relative to investors’ requirements. RMI Neither of these is within the utility’s operational control. The One Driver That Utilities In a supplier-drivenmarket, reactiveprocurement isexpensive. Thedifference is that, Utility management operates within a largely fixed costenvironment. Fuel costs are set by commodity markets. Infrastructureinvestment costs are determined by asset age,regulatory mandates, and capital plans approved yearsin advance. Capacity charges are set by regional grid None of these are levers utility management can pullin any meaningful near-term sense. They are the But one driver is different. The cost premium generated by labor inflation and supply chain dysfunction is not a market price,a regulatory determination, or an unavoidable consequence of aging infrastructure. It is the direct The Procurement Premium Transformer prices have risen by 80% since 2014,double the rate of utility labor cost inflation over the Power transformer is now 30% short of demand in 2025,with lead times of approximately 2.5 years.11Distributiontransformer lead times have grown fourfold since 2019(NREL, 2024).12A further 20-30% price increase through The same constraint applies to construction. QualifiedEPC contractors in the utility sector are runningextended backlogs, competing for skilled tradesalongside data center developers and industrialmanufacturers. A contractor with more work than A utility that arrives late to constrained markets, witho