大中华区工业（港股/A股）：谁将制造人形机器人（2026年）？移动先行，操作紧随

Who MakestheHumanoid Robot (in 2026)?Locomotion first, manipulation follows Industry Overview 20April 2026 1.2mn sales in 2030E; US$224bn market size by 2035EWe areoptimistic on the medium to long term shipment of humanoid robots (HR), EquityGreater ChinaIndustrials supported by rapid evolution of AI algorithms and falling costs. We forecast global HRshipment to reach 90k units in 2026 (vs. 20k in 2025). In 2030/35, we expect annualshipment volume of HR to reach 1.2mn/10.0mn units globally. As such, we believe theglobal market size of HR would reach US$37/224bn by 2030/35. The US and Chinaremain the dual leaders of the global HR industry–US companies more focused on chipsand AI systems, while Chinese names have edges in hardware supply chain. Ming Hsun Lee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)minghsun.lee@bofa.com Yikai Liu, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) BOM: 45% cost reduction in 2026-30E Horst Schneider>>Research AnalystBofA Europe (Frankfurt) We estimate the hardware cost(exclude overhead and AI development related cost) of atypical HR at US$28k (-24% YoY) per unit by end-2026, if most of the components aremade in China. We expect the BOM costs of an HR to fall below US$16k/13k per unit by2030/35, thanks to economies of scale and improvement in component designs. Thiscorresponds to 45% decline in the BOM cost over 2026-30. Our BOM cost analysisshows that parts that have higher market size by 2030 are processor chip, corelessmotor, reducer, and planetary roller screw. Alexander PerryResearch AnalystBofAS KJ Hwang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul) Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofAS Locomotion comes first, manipulation capability follows Weview the intelligence level of mainstream HR models currently remains at around L2(i.e., basic multi‑modal perception, execution, and reasoning capabilities), withlocomotion (body movement) capability progressing faster than manipulation (handoperation). Leading Chinese HR companies received >RMB2bn (US$288mn) value oforders in 2025, with the majority of orders coming from R&D, data collection, andmanufacturing. We expect HR to be gradually adopted in industrial & commercialscenarios in the coming 3-4 years, supported by better manipulation capabilities. Andrew ObinResearch AnalystBofAS Benjamin Heelan>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (DIFC) Masashi Kubota>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan Kenjin Hotta>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan Keynames: TSLA/Kia/Hengli/Tuopu/Schaeffler/UBTECHLeading auto OEMs are now expanding in HR with their expertise in autonomous driving and manufacturing.We valueTSLA’s Optimus HR segment at $32B and see potentialfor it to replace a portion of 13mn U.S. manufacturing jobs, and similar to its full-selfdriving service we think Tesla could further monetize its offering with a softwaresubscription. We likeKiaas we expect it to benefit from new revenue stream from KiaRobotics Lab, end-to-end AI robotics value chain with Boston Dynamics, and labor costreductions. We have Buy onHengli/Tuopu/Schaeffleras they provide key HRcomponent portfolio: actuators, dexterous hand, structure components, or planetaryroller screw etc. and early mover advantage with leading US and Chinese HR brands. WelikeUBTECHas it has the largest orders backlog for HR among Chinese HR brands. Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan Jessie Lo>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore) Daley Li, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)See Team Page for List of Analysts Please refer to glossary on p.50 Greater China Industrials (H/A): WhoMakes the Humanoid Robot? Tesla Motors: Leading the Auto 2.0landscape & next era of mobility;Reinstate at Buy with $460 PO Autos - Korea: 2026 CES takeaways Contents Humanoid robot: key development in 20263Key charts4Theme #1: Robust shipment volume growth in 20268US and China take the lead9Key challenges: AI system, data, and mass production10Theme #2: From R&D to industrial & commercial applications11Capability: L2 currently; awaiting“ChatGPT moment”11Locomotion comes first, manipulation later11From R&D to industrial & commercial applications12Bipedal as foundation form; diversified development14Theme #3: Who makes humanoid robots?16Theme #4: BOM cost in China: to reach US$16k in 2030E24Expects 45% BOM cost reduction potential in 2026-3024BOM cost breakdown: rotary actuator/dexterous hand would have highestcontent value by 203025Theme#5: Rapid development of key components28Chip: rising computing power; Chinese names on the rise28Actuator: energy density, heat control, and lightweight29Reducer: harmonic vs. planetary; cost reduction ahead30Planetary roller screw: fast cost reduction upon mass production31Motor: eye on energy density; new technologies emerge32Dexterous hand: more flexibility, better sensing, and lower costs33Vision system: rising adoption of solid-state LiDAR; smaller size; wider FoV34Sensory system: technological breakthroughs support more precise sensing35Materials: PEEK e