2025年世界核工业现状报告

The World Nuclear IndustryStatus Report 2025 Foreword byLetizia MagaldiPresident, Kyoto Club, Rome, Italy By Yuki Kobayashi Mycle Schneider Yun-Chung TingPostdoctoral Research Associate, Senior Research Fellow, Security StudiesProgram, Sasakwa Peace FoundationTokyo, JapanContributing Author Institute of Sociology, Academia SinicaTaipei, TaiwanContributing Author Independent Analyst, Paris, FranceProject Coordinator and Lead Author Julie Hazemann Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, FranceDocumentary Research, Modelling, andDatavisualization Nikolaus Müllner Alexander Wimmers Head, Institute for Safety and RiskSciences, University of Natural Resourcesand Life Sciences (BOKU)Chairman, International Nuclear RiskAssessment Group (INRAG)Vienna, AustriaContributing Author Research Associate at the Workgroupfor Economic and InfrastructurePolicy (WIP), Berlin University ofTechnology (TU), Berlin, GermanyContributing Author Phred Dvorak Independent Journalist Washington D.C.,United StatesContributing Author Hartmut Winkler Emilio Godoy Professor, University of Johannesburg,South AfricaContributing Author Independent Investigative JournalistMexicoContributing Author M.V. Ramana Simons Chair in Disarmament, Globaland Human Security with the School ofPublic Policy and Global Affairs (SPPGA),University of British ColumbiaVancouver, CanadaContributing Author Maahin Ahmed Dmitry Gorchakov Freelance Copyeditor Calgary, CanadaEnglish Language Copyeditor Nuclear Adviser, Bellona FoundationVilnius, LithuaniaContributing Author Nina Schneider Proofreader and Translator Paris, FranceFact-checker, Proofreader, Producer Ruggero Schleicher-TappeserIndependent Consultant and Writer in Özgür Gürbüz Energy PoliciesBerlin, GermanyContributing Author Independent Consultant and ResearcherIstanbul, TürkiyeContributing Author Agnès StienneArtist, Graphic Designer, Cartographer Le Mans, FranceGraphic Design and Layout Bernd Hrdy Sebastian Stier Researcher, Institute for Safety and RiskSciences, University of Natural Resourcesand Life Sciences (BOKU)Vienna, AustriaContributing Author European Patent AttorneyMunich, GermanyContributing Author Friedhelm Meinass Visual Artist, PainterRodgau, GermanyCover-page Design and Layout Tatsujiro Suzuki President, Peace Depot VisitingProfessor, Research Center for NuclearWeapons Abolition (RECNA),Nagasaki University,Former Vice-Chairman of the JapanAtomic Energy Commission, JapanContributing Author Paul Jobin Associate Research Fellow,Institute of Sociology, Academia SinicaTaipei, TaiwanContributing Author Timothy Judson Independent Consultant Syracuse, NewYork, United StatesContributing Author Paris, 2025© A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project TABLE OF CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTS14FOREWORD16KEY INSIGHTS19EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS21INTRODUCTION41GENERAL OVERVIEW WORLDWIDE44ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER..................................................44OPERATION, POWER GENERATION, AGE DISTRIBUTION.................................49The IAEA’s Operating Reactors Data Revisions52IAEA vsWNISR Assessment54OVERVIEW OF CURRENT NEWBUILD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57BUILDING VS. VENDOR COUNTRIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58CONSTRUCTION TIMES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60Construction Times of ReactorsCurrently Under Construction60Construction Times ofPast and Currently OperatingReactors61CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELLATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63OPERATING AGE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66LIFETIME PROJECTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 FOCUS COUNTRIES74 CHINA FOCUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Overview74China’s Nuclear Sector and Ecosystem77State-Owned Giants: China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and China General Nuclear PowerCorporation (CGNPC or CGN)78Targets vsReality79The Localization of China’s Nuclear Industry81China’s Construction Costs and Capabilities82China’s Growing Range of Nuclear Technologies86Nuclear and Renewable Energy90FRANCE FOCUS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92Overview92 No Reactor Under Construction in France—Again94Nuclear Unavailability Review 202498Stress Corrosion Cracking and Thermal Fatigue102Decennial Inspections and Lifetime Extensions103Financial Issues107The 20-Year-Long Flamanville-3 EPR Saga—No End in Sight?108The EPR2 Project110Energy Planning111Conclusion112JAPAN FOCUS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .