2025年版黄金战略资产配置价值研究报告（英）

Contents What makes gold a strategic asset?3 Gold’s key attributes4 A long-term source of return4Diversification that works7A deep and liquid market9 Risk/reward profile10Gold’s ESG credentials and contributions12 Potential risks and challenges13 Conclusion14 What makes gold a strategicasset? Gold has a key role as a strategic long-term investment and as a mainstay allocation ina well-diversified portfolio. Investors have been able to recognise much of gold’s valueover time by maintaining a long-term allocation and taking advantage of its safe-havenstatus during periods of economic uncertainty. Gold is a highly liquid asset, which is no one’s liability,carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historicallypreserving its value over time. It also benefits fromdiverse sources of demand: as an investment, areserve asset, gold jewellery, and a technologycomponent. These attributes mean gold can enhancea portfolio in three key ways: Combined, these characteristics make gold a clearcomplement to stocks and bonds and a welcomeaddition to broad-based portfolios. Moreover, the shift towards a greater integration ofenvironmental, social and governance (ESG) objectiveswithin investment strategies has importantimplications and we believegold can playa role insupporting these. Gold – from established investmentsources – should be recognised as an asset that isresponsibly produced and delivered from a supplychain that adheres to high ESG standards. Gold alsohas a potential role to play in reducing investorexposure to climate-related risks. •Delivering long-term returns (p.4)•Improving diversification (p.7)•Providing liquidity (p.9) GLTER’s robust framework builds upon thecomposition and drivers of above-ground gold stocks.The model suggests that gold’s long-run return closelymirrors global GDP and is, therefore, materially higherthan inflation. This also implies that gold should beviewed as an asset that can positively contribute tolong-term portfolio returns, supplementing its well-established role as a hedge. Gold’s key attributes A long-term source of return Investors have long considered gold a beneficial assetduring periods of uncertainty. Yet, historically, it hasgenerated long-term positive returns in both goodand bad economic times. Its diverse sources ofdemand give gold a particular resilience and thepotential to deliver solid returns in various marketconditions(Figure 1). Gold is, on the one hand, oftenused as an investment to protect and enhance wealthover the long term, but on the other hand it is also aconsumer good, via jewellery and technology demand.During periods of economic uncertainty, it is thecounter-cyclical investment demand that drives thegold price up. During periods of economic expansion,the pro-cyclical consumer demand supports itsperformance. Chart1: Gold has performed well over the past1,3,5, 10 and 20 years, despite the strong performanceof risk assets Annualised return over the past 1, 3, 5, 10and 20years* Looking back over more-than half a century since theUS gold standard collapsed in 1971, the price of goldin US dollars has increased by 8% on an annualisedbasis – a performance comparable with that of equitiesand higher than that of bonds over the same period.Gold has also outperformed many other major assetclasses over the past 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 years(Chart 1). The fact that gold has performed so well is nocoincidence. Our research shows thatthe gold priceover the long term is primarily driven by aneconomic component balanced by a financialcomponent. We call this approach Gold’s Long TermExpected return (GLTER). Average annual net demand = 3,034 tonnes* (approx. US$233bn) Chart 3:Gold historically rallies in periodsof highinflation Gold in US dollars hasincreased by 8% per yearsince 1971 Gold nominal and real returns in US dollars as afunction of annual inflation* Moreover, the diversity of its sources of demand helpto make gold a less volatile asset than some equityindices, other commodities or alternatives(Chart 2). Chart 2:Gold has been less volatile than manyequity indices, alternatives and commoditiesbecause of its scale, liquidity and diverse sources ofdemand Average daily volatility of several major assets since2004* Our research also shows thatgold should do well inperiods of deflation. Such periods are characterised bylow interest rates, reduced consumption andinvestment, and financial stress, all of which tend tofoster gold demand. Store of value Historically, major currencies were pegged to gold.That changed with the unravelling of the US goldstandard in 1971 and the eventual collapse of theBretton Woods system. Since then, with fewexceptions, gold has significantly outperformed allmajor currencies and commodities as a means ofexchange. And although this outperformance wasparticularly marked immediately following the end ofthe gold standard, gold has clearly continued tooutperform most major currencies in the more recentpast(Chart 4). A key factor be