人工智能……迟早会到来——超越自动驾驶：软件定义汽车（SDVs）能带来哪些附加价值？

driving: What added value can SDVs deliver? likebytheearly2030swhenA/hasbeenfullyintegratedandcommercialized.Therearebroadly two schools of thought runningthrough ourresearch on Alglobally.The"Sooner"camp generallybelieves that Artificial Intelligenceisa game-changerfortheir sector,rightnow.The"Later"campbelievesthatArtificial Intelligenceis a game-changerfortheirindustry...just not yet. In this series,each analystis declaring their view on the timing andnature of A/disruption in their sectorandwhat that implies for warrantedvaluation today.Alisreplacingelectrificationastheprimarydifferentiator:AsEVmomentumstalls, +81367776998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.comTomohiro Kashimoto +81 3 67776975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.comSeunghyeok Kim +813 6777 6974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com expanding the vehicle's role as a portable home, integrating the cabin with the user'sconnectivity,whileXiaomi'sHuman x Car x Home'vision uses Hyperos to unify the car withhousehold devices.Sony Honda Mobility pursueda different path byframing mobility asan entertainmentspace.Although developmentofthe Afeela1has been discontinued,webelievetheconceptcouldberevisitedgivenSony'sstrengthsincontentandaudiovisualtechnology.Tesla represents a third approach, aimingto leverage full autonomyto convertidle private vehicles intopart of a shared robotaxi network. Interiorasthefoundationforpostautonomyvaluecreation:AsL4/L5autonomycouldenhance value in non-driving time, Toyota is starting to position interior space as a coredifferentiator. Concepts such as the e-Palette and the Lexus LS Concept highlight Toyota'sToyota Boshokuand Toyoda Goseimoving toward integrated interior systems.Webelievefurtherconsolidationamongkeysuppliersmaybe neededto accelerate cockpit integration.However, Toyota lacks applications that utilize this interior environment, and buildingexternal partnerships to develop in-cabin services willbecome increasingly important. shift valuetowardupstream Alarchitectureanddownstreamapplications,graduallyreducing differentiation in traditional manufacturing. Toyota's 150-mn-unit global fleetand the Mobility Services Platform provide access to large,diverse real-world data,whichstrengthensnot only its Al development butalso itspotentialforfuture externalincreasing difficulty in capturing downstream value and risk remaining hardware suppliers. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS WeexpecttherolloutofSDVsbyJapaneseautomakerstokickoffwithToyota'snewRAV4,settolaunchin2O25.Japanese automakers areprogressingonSDVdevelopmentwithvarying strategies,rangingfromfull-stack softwareplatform/osdevelopmenttofocuseddevelopmentalignedwithcompanystrengths. In autonomous driving,rapidadvances in Alare accelerating the shift from traditional rule-basedstacks to E2E stacks,drivenbytheneedforfasterdeploymentandimprovedhandlingofedgecases.WithinE2Earchitectures,Vision-Language-Actiona'multi-pathway'strategy that combines in-house development through its smart-city initiative,Woven City,with externalpartnerships,including collaboration with Waymo,a pioneerin VLA-based autonomous driving,as well as strategic investmentsinMayMobility,Pony.ai, and Momenta.Crucially,its15Om-unitglobalfleetand MobilityServicePlatform (MSPF)provideastructural advantage in aggregating the vast driving data required for model training. Honda, while working with Helm.ai,continues to focus primarily on developing its own in-house E2E autonomous driving system. Nissan, meanwhile, is leveragingWayve's E2Etechnologyas thecore ofits autonomousdriving approach. Finally,we expect onlya limitednumberof automakers are likely tobe positionedto deliver substantial added valueonce fullautonomous driving is realized.Those with large global vehicle installed bases, scale advantages and sufficient investmentcapacity, such as Toyota, are the most likely candidates. On the other hand, mid-sized and smaller manufacturers may find itincreasingly difficult to secure downstream value and maintain long-term competitiveness, as weakening value capture leavesthem at risk of remaining just vehicle manufacturers. strategic initiatives across the sectorto accelerate,althoughthepace and direction of progress vary by automaker.We rateSuzuki and Toyota as Outperform, Honda as Market-Perform,Nissan,Mazda and Subaru as Underperform. As the industrymovestoward full Al-driven autonomous driving,we assess the extent to which ourcoverage Japaneseto sustain Al/AD-related development, the current maturity of AD technologies, organizational readiness for softwaredevelopment, the ability to monetize applications and services, and the degree of supply chain integration (Exhibit 1). Based on these criteria, we continue to viewToyota as the leading beneficiary of Al. We believe Toyota has the capacity to investmore than JPY8tn in R&D overthe nextfive years, supported by its substantial cash on handand strong cash generation.Thisfinancial strength provides sufficient headroom for in-house developmentof autonomous driving tech