石油市场报告-2026年4月

14 April 2026 •Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends our globaloutlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’sReportand a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Initially, the deepest •Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March, with continued attacks onenergy infrastructure in the Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements throughthe Strait of Hormuz leading to the largest disruption in history. OPEC+ production fell •Global crude throughputs continue to struggle with disruptions to feedstock supplies andinfrastructure damage that are tightening global product markets. In April, Middle East andfeedstock-constrained refineries in Asia have cut runs by around 6 mb/d, to 77.2 mb/d. Global •Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 mb in March, with stocks outside of the Middle EastGulf drawn down by a significant 205 mb (-6.6 mb/d) as flows through the Strait of Hormuzwere choked off. At the same time, with limited outlets after the effective closure of the Strait, •Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March in the wake of the most severe oilsupply shock in history. Spot crude benchmarks and differentials soared, outpacing futuresmarkets, as refiners anxiously scrambled to replace locked in Middle Eastern cargoes. At the Table of contents Disruptions mount.................................................................................................................... 3Strait Down – Stocks Draw as the Loss of Hormuz Flows Tightens Balances ....................... 4Demand...................................................................................................................................... 5Overview ................................................................................................................................. 5Petrochemicals at the Centre of Demand Destruction............................................................ 6OECD ...................................................................................................................................... 7Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................ 11Supply...................................................................................................................................... 14Overview ............................................................................................................................... 14OPEC+ crude supply ............................................................................................................ 15Gulf Production Curtailments: Rolling Back Out the Barrels................................................. 16Russia’s Total Exports Revenues: Gulf War Boosting Revenues ........................................ 21 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 28Regional refining developments ........................................................................................... 29Product cracks and refinery margins .................................................................................... 34 Stocks ...................................................................................................................................... 44 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 44IEA Collective Action will Continue to Provide Market Relief................................................ 45 Implied balance ..................................................................................................................... 47Recent OECD industry stocks changes................................................................................ 48Other stocks developments .................................................................................................. 50 Prices ....................................................................................................................................... 53 Tables ...................................................................................................................................... 63 Disruptions mount The announcement last week of a two-week ceasefire in the conflict in the Middle East providedsome welcome respite to global oil markets just as the impact of disruptions to supply and tradewere spreading globally. However, at the time of writing, it remains unclear whether the ceasefirewill turn into a lasting peace and a return to regular shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. With Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easingthe pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy. The latest developmen