早晨洞察：2026年4月14日

Morning Insight:April 14, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Nickel:Pyrometallurgical marginal cost support; Indonesian policy expectations lifting cost outlookNickel prices are currently supported by rising marginal costs in thepyrometallurgical (NPI) route, alongside strengthening policy At the same time, ongoing logistical disruptions in the Middle East mayexacerbate concerns over sulfur supply—an important input forhydrometallurgical processes—thereby increasing reliance on traditional In addition, expectations surrounding Indonesia’s nickel ore pricing policy adjustments as of April 13 may further lift cost assumptions.Changes in the pricing mechanism could increase costs forpyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical routes by at least ~2% and over Polysilicon:Sentiment-driven rally; fundamentals remain weak in the short term Multiple polysilicon futures contracts hit limit-up yesterday, drivenprimarily by renewed market speculation around anti-overcapacity (“anti-involution”) policies in the photovoltaic sector. On the policy front,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a nationalconference on high-quality development of the electronics and information That said, it is also worth noting that prices had approached undervaluedlevels in early April, and ongoing news-driven sentiment may continue to Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. Shanghai's economy has made a sound start this year, with the city'smanufacturing output in three forerunner industries, namely artificial During the period, Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods roseby 7.2 percent, while fixed-asset investment grew by 7.4 percent. In the The added value of Shanghai's industrial strategic emerging industriesgrew by 9.9 percent in the first two months, with the new energy As a major destination for foreign investment, Shanghai is now home to1,091 multinational regional headquarters and 654 foreign-funded R&D 2. China's yuan-denominated loans rose 8.6 trillion yuan (about 1.25trillion U.S. dollars) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, central bank data showed on Monday. At the end of March, outstanding yuan loans stood at 280.51 trillion The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulationand all deposits, had increased by 8.5 percent year on year to 353.86 The M1, which covers cash in circulation, demand deposits and clientreserves of non-bank payment institutions, reached 119.32 trillion yuan Monday's data also revealed that the outstanding aggregate financing tothe real economy had stood at 456.46 trillion yuan at the end of last The aggregate financing to the real economy was 14.83 trillion yuan inQ1, which was 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. China will continue to apply an appropriately accommodative monetarypolicy in 2026, according to this year's government work report. (Source: Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for