霍尔木兹海峡中断：增长与金融影响

Growth and financial implications Introduction The Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed. Under normal conditions, it is one of the world’s most vitalarteries of energy-related trade, accounting for a significantshare of global oil and gas supplies - the foundation of much Soaring oil and gas prices may inflate the cost of living,squeezing the livelihoods of the most vulnerable. Trade and growth are expected to slow in 2026. Financialramifications for developing countries include falling stock If the military escalation and disruptions persist, the sufferingwill extend far beyond the region, translating into widespread At a moment of heightened fragility, de-escalation and the The Strait of Hormuzremains For a month, transit through the Strait This is a shock for global trade, which The risk of inflationhas reemerged Fuel prices have skyrocketed and Daily crude oil prices, in US$ per barrel Note:Brent (FOB), WTI (Cushing), Dubai (Cash), Urals (CIF, including insurance and logistics costs). On 2March2026, the Dubai index suspended nominations of crude grades requiring transit through the Strait of Hormuz.Currently, only Oman crude and Murban crude loaded at Fujairah are used in the Dubai index. Note:Daily Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). Clean tankers carrylower-sulphur petroleum, including refined petroleum products. Dirty tankers mostly carry crude oil. When oil prices rise sharply, the costof living follows. Monthly inflation rates by country group, and monthly Note:The oil price corresponds to crude oil, Brent, US$ per barrel. Inflation rates are based on year-on-year variationsof consumer price indices for 155 countries. Group aggregates are simple average values with latest data points The global economy Rising geopolitical risk fuels globaleconomic uncertainty. Global growth is likely to slow down. Annual growth rates of gross domestic product, in per cent Source:UN Trade and Development,based on United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, NationalAccounts Main Aggregates database and World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026; Economic Commissionfor Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026; OECD, 2026; IMF, World Economic Outlook; Economist Intelligence Stock prices are in sharp decline. Stock market performance, price index: 27 February 2026 = 100 Currencies of developing countries Source:UN Trade and Development, based on LSEG Data & Analytics.Note:Aggregates by region are weighted by countries’ GDP. External borrowing costs are rising This is an extra burden onnations and people. 2.7 billion3.4 billionpeople 2 139 live in 46 developingcountries that spend moreon servicing their debt than 2 240 Latin America and the Caribbean Source:UN Trade and Development, based on A world of debt (2025).Note:Calculations based on the period 2021-2023. Debt refers to domestic and external public debt.EducationHealth Issues forconsideration as inflation pressures rise, particularly for vulnerable Implementmeasures to contain transmissionof systemic risks across energy, trade, and finance. Enable rapid access to external financing for developing countries for essential imports anddebt servicing, potentially through emergencyassistance, debt relief, central bank currency swap Empower development banksto provide emergency loans; while bilateral creditors may needto suspend debt service to providecrucial relief to “…the global economicimpact is increasingly “End the war — immediately.” António GuterresSecretary-General of the United Nations