Spotify科技：定价行动聚焦收益；投资者日即将举行（重申买入评级）

Pricing action bbenefits in focus; Investorday on deck 02April2026 1Qpreview:Pricing actiontodriveARPUacceleration WeareconfidentthatSPOT's1Q26resuitswill reflect continuedmomentumacrossquarter.impact of the recent Us price increase and benefit of increases in a few othermarkets.Looking ahead to2Q,we think ARPU growth shouldagain accelerate q/qreflecting extra two months of benefit from the US price increase (among afew othermarkets).Notably.we adjust the timing of sub additions throughout the year,loweringour 2Qnetadds to-5mn (vs.8mn in2Q last year;reflecting changestopromotionaltiming and comping benefit from ios court ruling in the prior year quarter). However, wemaintain our CY26 net adds of -24mn.Notably SPOT shares haveunderperformedtostart the year (down-19% YTD) driven in part by concems around Al Equity disintermediation/competitive threats.While we continue to view SPOT's marketin the near term. Investordayonthehorizon We view SPoT's upcoming investorday (5/21)as akeypotential positive catalyst forthestock. At the company's last investor day in 22, management laid out medium-andoperating margin andFCF.SPOT hitmany of thesetargets faster thananticipated,andwe anticipate the company will provide updates to some or all of thesemetrics at theupcoming investorday.In additiontofinancial metrics,weanticipatethe.companywilldiscuss longer term strategy. Jessica Reif EhrlichResearchAnialyst16468552921jessicireitabofa.com Brent Navon, CFAResearchAnalystBofAS1646 8553827brentnavongbofa.com Adjusting1QEOlforsocialcharges David PlausResearchAnialyst16468551572diavid.plausopbofa.com Wemaintainour1QErevenueoft4.53bnandGMof 32.8%.Weadjustour4QEO1forecasttoreflect lowersocial charges (due toSPoT's sharepricedecrease in1Q).andtherefore,raiseOl to709mn (from 66Omn).For CY26E,wemaintain revenue and GM,but lower FCFto3.5bn (from 3.68bn).reflecting higher Y/Ycash taxes. ReiterateBuyand$750P0 StockData Wereiterate our Buy rating and PO of S75o.We think profit growthand FCFgenerationshould bedrivenby:1)deepersubscriberpenetration,2)price increases,3)new pricingbusinesses. Notably, audiobooks have yet to be rolled out across the large Spanish-speaking population. Pnice470.01USDPrice Otjectie750.00-U5DDueEsublished11-Feb-2026InestmengOpirionC1-952-Week Rapge4050DU5D-785.00 U5DMrik Va mi/.Shares Out96,743 4/5D:7 205.8 Ol=Operating incomeSPoT =SpotifyTechnology S.A BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 6. PriceObjectiveBasis/Riskonpage6.12954595 Timestamp: 02April 2026 05:00AM EDT iQprofilesSpotifyTechnology CompanySectorMusic CompanyDescription SPOTouns thelargest streaming musicsubscriptionserviceintheworid.controlingai/3miarket shareofthepremium music streamingmarket SPOT generatesroughly9C% of jes revenles from prenium service subscriptionsand roughy10%af its revenuefrom acvertising viathecompany'sfreelimited-accessstreamingservicealongwithanginaland exclusvepodcastSPOTalsoownsa8%stakein Tencent Music Entertainment,thelargest musisteaming platform in China Investment Rationale Weview SPOTas an attractive pure phayon the high-grwwthstreamingmusicmarket-a subscription-drivenopportunityundepinned bytheglobalappealofmusicandrsing simartphone adoption with optionality from recentaudiobocksandvideopodtastingtitiativesAlthcughthehigh level of the compary'sstreaming musiccosts are lessthnidea,webieveapathtoimprovedproahidiysvisible,settingthestageforsignificantvaluecreationpotential proided execution continues: Stock Data AvergeDellyVolime2201,550 SPOT-Vanance table Exhibit2:WeforecastCY26E0lofE3.1bn SPOT-IncomeStatement Exhibit3:WeforecastCY26EFCFofE3.5bnSPOT-FCFStatement Priceobjectivebasis&risk SpotifyTechnology (SPOT) Our$750priceobjective isbasedonroughly29xourCY27EFCFestimate,aslightWeuse a multiple of FCF for valuationas SPOT has reached a profitability inflectionpoint and should be able to sustainably grow FCF into the future. OurvaluationaccountsforSPoT'spositioningwithinaseculargrowthareaof Media&Entertainment, its ramping profitability,andthe premium valuations ascribed to leadingsubscriptionstreamingmediaservices. expansion, increased market share, increased operating leverage, and traction from newgrowth initiatives. Downsideriskstoourpriceobjectivearemargin pressure,increased contentcostsreduced streaming market share, slowerrevenue growth and the potential that the Joeplatform. AnalystCertification l,Jessica Reif Ehrlich,hereby certifythattheviews expressed in this research reportaccuratelyreflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers.alsocertify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, di