为什么是2026年的黄金？黄金仍然是日本投资者的战略资产吗？

Does gold still offer Japanese investors a strategic Contents Gold, an efficient contributor to growth5Low correlation with risk assets6An effective hedge against geopolitical shocks6 Is gold still a strategic asset? Japan’s 2026 macro scene Inflationary pressure, higher ratesRising bond-equity correlation as inflationary Conclusion Is gold still a strategic asset? In 2025 gold experienced its strongest annual performance since 1979 (Chart1).Heightened geopolitical risks, escalating global trade uncertainties, and growingdemand for portfolio diversification drove sustained buying from both central banks and Gold has carried this momentum into 2026. Further spikes in geopolitical and trade risks,among other factors, have provided support for gold. That said, recent spikes in gold price volatility have prompted a key concern for investors:is gold still a strategic safe-haven asset? Our analysis shows that with various challenges facing Japanese investors in 2026, suchas sticky inflationary pressure, rising bond-equity correlation and geopolitical Various asset returns in yen (left) and gold in yen (right)* Meanwhile, the labour shortage may further fuel pricepressures. Declining fertility rates, rising longevity, anda shrinking working‑age population have tightenedlabour supply. These factors, combined with an Japan’s 2026 macro scene Inflationary pressure, higher rates To answer this question, we believe it is vital to firstassessJapanese investors’ portfolio needs. Prime Minister Takaichi’s historical election win mayhave multiple implications for Japan’s economy andlocal assets.1Her expansionary fiscal policy stance,such as suspending food consumption tax, is likely to Takaichi’s tougher stance on immigration does little toalleviate these constraints. Taken together, limitedlabour supply and a widening output gap are likely to Chart3:Shunto wins are no coincidence With economic activity in Japan improving, and likely tobe further boosted by expansionary fiscal policies, thecountry’s output gap could widen into positive territory, in line with the projection from the Bank ofJapan (BoJ).2And when the gap turns positive, it This brings the BoJ into focus. Despite its expansionaryfiscal policy, the bank is expected to continuemonetary policy normalisation. While this may appearat odds with the Prime Minister’s stance, incrementaltightening is necessary to counter yen weakness and Moreover, the macro conditions for the BoJ tocontinue hiking, as we have notedbefore, are nowfirmly in place. The wage-price spiral remains intactwhile the output gap keeps growing. Both point tosticky inflationary pressure that may cost the BoJ Rising bond-equity correlation as inflationary pressure climbs The above analysis indicates three potential trends forJapanese investors to watch: •Expansionary fiscal policies ahead•Higher inflationary pressure•Rising interest rates. Meanwhile, global uncertainties cannot be •Rising geopolitical risks involving Japan•Resurging global trade uncertainties•The de-globalisation trend, which structurally As wenoted previously, global bond-equity correlationhas remained at elevated levels amid sticky inflationarypressure. Positive inflation surprises often adversely •Inflation is unlikely to ease•Growth outlook is positive but external shocks Local interest rates are expected to rise further. Does gold still offerJapanese investors a Geopolitical risks aren’t fading soon Japanese investors may need to factor in severalconsiderations when constructing their portfolios. Notleast, historical data tells us thatgeopolitical riskspikes tend to cluster. Each spike averages threeweeks in duration but the GPR index level tends to Let us return to our original question:is gold still asafe-haven asset now that it moves at wider ranges thanit has done historically? We believe the recent rise in gold price volatility hasbeen driven by frequent spikes in geopolitical risk,alongside rapidly shifting expectations aroundinflation and major central banks’ policy paths so far in Our assessment of the domestic and global conditionsindicates that Japanese investors, who typically put •Hedge against inflation•Assets with low/negative correlation to equities.•Cushion geopolitical shocks, the“unknown And we believe gold remains highly relevant as astrategic asset in Japanese investors’ portfolios due Gold, an efficient contributor to growth Investors have long considered gold a beneficial assetduring periods of uncertainty. Yet, historically, goldhas generated long-term positive returns in bothgood and bad times, outperforming many other major Chart6:Gold’s unique correlation with equities canenhance investor portfolios Gold’s diverse sources of demand give it not only aparticular resilience, but also the potential to deliversolid returns in various market conditions. Gold is, onthe one hand, often used as an investment to protectand enhance wealth over the long term (counter-