人工智能基础设施 - 中国（H/A）：人工智能发展背景下变压器持续短缺；伊朗紧张局势推动储能需求

Ongoing shortage of transformers amidgrowing AI; Iran tension pushes ESS needs Rating Change Global powerequipment upcycle continuesWehosted an Asia Tech conference this week. In the AI Infrastructure panel, a speaker noted that transformers were the most in shortage among all power equipment (maylast at least till 2029) and high-voltage transformer lead time can be up to 3 years whilethe shortages in UPS/switches are easing. AIDC (AI data centres) account for c.10% ofequipment demand while grid is still over 50% demand. While it is still difficult forChinese players to directly sell to US AIDC; the ex-China grid upgrade requirements andextreme shortage could provide export upside for Chinese transformers, in our view.SiemensEnergy posted strong gas turbine orders in 1Q26 and guided 19-21% YoY salesgrowth for the grid business in FY26, indicating the power equipment upcycle is likely tocontinue. Sevenmajor US tech firms signedagreementsto supplytheirown power forAIDC, bringing demand for power equipment. China guided to grow grid capex in 15FYPof 40% vs. 14th FYP. We expect RMB715bn China grid capex in 2026 (12% YoY growth).After 35% YoY growth in 2025, we forecast China's transformer export value growth at25-30% in 2026. We lift our PO for Sieyuan expecting 49%/42% YoY earnings in2026/27E growth and reiterate Buy given its all-round advantage in power transmission& distribution equipment, as well as its diversified overseas market. We maintain ourBuy ratings onJinpan, Huaming, and Dongfang. Middle East tension may trigger more need for ESSThe interruption of oil and gas supply chains may bring attention to energy security and accelerate the global energy transition, raising ESS demand. In addition, we wouldexpect ESS to benefit frompost-war reconstruction demand. We now forecast globalBESS installation to 425/533GWh in 2026/27E, 39%/25% YoY. For battery, we forecast2026/27E ESS battery shipments to reach 850/1060GWh, +55%/25% YoY. Please seeour report:Lift ‘26 Global BESS forecast & battery shipment. Our top pick in ESS isSungrow, given 1) it is a key beneficiary of ESS growth; 2) its strong brand image, withlikely capacity expansion overseas; 3) attractive valuation; and 4) potential long-termupside from AIDC. The recent lithium prices rally poses short-term margin concern, andwe expect to it to pass through upstream prices in the mid term. Cooling: Supported by AI Capex growth & demand upWe remain constructive on the cooling sector and see further upside driven by 1) accelerating global AI capex, with our global team forecasting US$1.4tn by CY30, 2) arapid surge in AIDC construction, as evidenced by Vertiv’s +81% YoY order growth in2025, and 3) strengthening AIDC cooling demand as advanced chips drive higher powerdensity, a trend highlighted by NVIDIA at GTC. We raise Envicool’s FY26/27E earnings by21%/38% and lift our PO by 62% to RMB128, upgrading the stock to Buy from Neutralon robust cooling demand, strong export exposure, deeper integration into the valuechains of leading server makers & advanced technology including MCCP. We raiseShenling 2026/27E earnings by 24%/34% & lift PO by 90% to RMB120,we reiterate ourBuy rating on the optimistic outlook for cooling mkt & undemanding valuation to peers. China grid capex to +12% in 2026E China grid investment to grow 12%/7% in 2026/27EDespite 2025 China grid capex only growing 5% YoY to RMB640bn, we remain positive on grid investment, mainly driven by still-rising demand from renewables’curtailmentpressure, grid digitalization, countercyclical investment, and growing power demand inelectrification and data centers. On March 5, 2026,“computing–electricity synergy”(算电协同) was included in the ChinaGovernment Work Report. It was designated as one of the new infrastructure initiatives,with a focus on nationwide integrated monitoring and scheduling of computing power,as well as coordinated development between energy and computing systems. State Grid Corporation of China(SGCC)announced its capex target of RMB4tn for15thFive-year plan (FYP), +40% vs capex during 14thFYP, in line withinvestors'expectation.China Southern Power Grid (CSG)alsoannounced a capex plan ofRMB24bn in power grid infrastructurefor1Q26, +20% YoY.We believe the growthrateof China grid investmentwill be front-loaded to 1H of the 15thFYP, with China gridinvestment growth at 12% in 2026E to c.RMB715bn and another 7% in 2027E. Monthly grid investment in China Growth rate of grid investment by category Source:SGCC, BofA Global Research estimates Transformer exports to +25-30% in 2026 Amid global AIDC demand and renewables curtailment pressure, global powerinfrastructure capex upcycle continues in 2026. Siemens Energy’s 1Q26 results reportedthat 13GW gas turbine orders were booked in 1Q vs 26GW in FY25, indicating a powershortage in overseas. It also guides 16-18%/19-21% YoY sales growth for gas/gridbusiness for FY26, driven by the power demand in US. Please see report from BofAAnalyst