2026年第一季度阿德莱德经济租金报告

Estimates of the economic rent for a A-grade office tower in AdelaideCBD are above current and forecast rent levels. This indicates thecurrent constraints on development feasibility, which are leading to athin office supply pipeline over the coming years. Q1 2026 Click here tosubscribe Key insights Economic rents have surged since 2021 as a mix of rising costs andmarket pressures put the brakes on new office development. Thesupply pipeline in Adelaide CBD remains relatively thin which is ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING $1,150 $900 27%Gap between economicand forecast rent Current economic rent Current forecast rent Economic rents are estimated to be at$1,150/sqm (gross). This is the rentrequired on construction completionin Q4 2028 to make a new high A-gradeoffice tower feasible in Adelaide CBD. Forecast rents are estimated at$900/sqm. This is the forecast high A-grade Adelaide CBD rent expected onconstruction completion in Q4 2028 ifrents grow at 4% per annum. Current economic rents are 27% aboveforecast rents if constructioncommenced in Q4 2025. Economic rents areabove forecast rents Economic rents haverisen sharply Current Adelaide CBD economic rents for a new highA-grade office tower is estimated at $1,150/sqm (grossface rent), an 93% increase since Q1 2021. This is therent required in Q4 2028 for viable development. Economic rents are estimated to be 27% above theforecast level of rent upon development completion– Development pipelinehas thinned out Several factors drivinghigher development costs The development pipeline has thinned out asdevelopers find it difficult to meet feasibility criteria.New supply is expected to fall below the long-term Elevated economic rents are being driven by acombination of higher construction costs, elevatedinterest rates, a softening in yields (and the resulting Development forecastto be viable in 2030 Economic rents areforecast to remain stable Yields are forecast to compress throughout 2026 and2027, but this will be offset by rising constructioncosts. Economic rents are expected to remain Economic rents are projected to be near forecast rentsin 2030–meaning that new developments will be Economic rents have risen A STEEP RISE SINCE 2021 ECONOMIC RENTS NOW WELL ABOVE FORECASTRENTS Economic rents–the level of rent at which theconstruction of a new development becomes feasible–have risen sharply since 2021 due to a significant rise in Economic rent growth in Adelaide’s CBD has far outpacedA-grade office rent growth in recent years. Since Q1 2021,economic rents have risen by 93% (14.1% p.a.), comparedto 23% (4.2% p.a.) for high A-grade* market rents. In Q42025, the average high A-grade office rent stood at$811/sqm (gross face rent), well below the national average In Q4 2025, for a new high A-grade office tower inAdelaide CBD–starting construction this quarter with athree-year construction period–we estimate that theeconomic rent required upon completion is $1,150/sqm(gross face rent). That is, the developer requires an This implies that both current and forecast high A-grademarket rents are well below our estimated economic rentrequired for viability. In Q4 2025, economic rents were27% higher than the estimated rent at development In modelling economic rents, we assume that high A-grade Adelaide CBD office yields remain steadythroughout the construction period at their current level.The completed building is assumed to sell at 25bps below This historically wide gap between economic and forecastrents underscores the challenge of achieving financialfeasibility for new office developments in the currentmarket environment. As a result, the pipeline for new *High A-grade rent = Average of 83 Pirie Street, Festival Tower 1 and 10 Franklin Street Adelaide CBD economic rents are nearing the peak Estimate of economic rent required at project completion for an Adelaide CBD high A-grade development versus forecast rent [current marketrent plus 4% p.a. growth over 3 years] ($/sqm, gross face rent) Economic rent is well above forecast rentsDifference between economic and forecast rent (%, economic rent divided by forecast rent) Drivers of high economic rents HIGHER CONSTRUCTION PRICES INCREASE COSTS INTEREST RATES RISE TO CONTROL INFLATION,RAISING BORROWING COSTS Since 2021, Australia has seen a sharp increase inconstruction costs, driven by a combination of global anddomestic supply-side pressures. Construction costs for anew A-grade tower in Adelaide are estimated to have risenfrom $3,346,/sqm (GFA) in Q1 2021 to $5,358/sqm Q4 2025.The rise in costs has occurred across both materials and Starting in 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)implemented the largest and fastest interest rate increasesin decades to rein in inflation as the economy emergedfrom the pandemic. From Q1 2021 to Q4 2023, the cash raterose by 425 bps and 2-year swap rates rose by 380 bps,significantly lifting funding costs for owners/developers. RE