中国能源行业：“十五五”规划及其影响

Bernstein Energy: China's 15th FYP. Implications for energy China’s total energy consumption is expected to rise by 14% by 2030 (2.6% CAGR)from the 2025 baseline, although we suspect this understates growth.The 15thFive Year Plan (FYP) calls for energy consumption per unit of GDP to fall by 10% by 2030from 2025 baseline —a slower rate of improvement compared with the 13.5% reductiontargeted under the 14th FYP. When combined with 4.75% GDP growth, China’s totalprimary energy demand should rise 14% to 6.95Bn TCE. This implies 2.6% CAGR growthin primary energy,although in the previous 14thFYP, China’s energy consumptiongrowth increased by 22% vs a planned increase of 14%. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Energy security is the top priority with a targeted increase in domestic supplyto match consumption growth.China sets an objective to increase domestic energyproduction capacity from 5.1Bn TCE in 2025 to 5.8Bn by 2030, a 13% increase. Oil outputwill remain stable at around 200 million tons per year, while natural gas production willgrow by an unspecified amount, backed by expanded pipeline networks and gas storageconstruction. Coal will provide flexibility for the rapid scale up of renewables, nuclear, gridupgrades, and energy storage.In the coming FYP, we expect coal to decline, oil growthat <1% CAGR, which gas and renewables to grow at 6% and 8% CAGR respectively. The 15th FYP reinforces China’s commitment to peak carbon emissions before 2030through strong growth in renewables.The 15thFYP reinforced the target to lowerCO₂emissions per unit of GDP by 17%. Non-fossil energy is targeted to reach 25% of totalenergy consumption by 2030, a structural positive for renewable, nuclear, and hydropowerto grow in the energy mix.In the 14thFYP, China exceeded its target with non-FFreaching 21.7% of the mix vs. a plan of 20%.We expect non-fossil fuel energy to growat 8% CAGR in the next 5 years which will enable China to reach peak carbon emissions by2030 and non-FF reaching 28.1% of primary energy. A defining shift in the 15th FYP is the elevation of energy storage and gridmodernization as foundational pillars of China’s future energy system.Unlike earlierplans that framed energy storage as supplementary, the 15th FYP elevates it to a coreinfrastructure pillar of China’s energy transition. The FYP mandates that major renewablebases especially in the desert and Gobi regions must include paired storage and calls forsignificant expansion in pumped hydro capacity. Simultaneously, China is building a fullyunified national electricity market, with spot market power coverage nationwide, plus widescale deployment of smart grids, UHV transmission, and digital-enabled dispatch. The 15th FYP offers strong multiyear policy support for gas, renewables, energystorage, and grid equipment companies.Non-fossil energy expansion sits at the centerof China’s path to peak carbon by 2030, giving investors strong visibility in solar, wind,storage, grid tech and nuclear names. It also emphasizes domestic resilience in oil and gasto reduce import dependency. Within our China energy coverage, we favor leaders such asCATL and Sungrow for exposure to storage and electrification, while PetroChina, CNOOC,ENN and Kunlun Energy remain well positioned beneficiaries of China’s security first fossilfuel strategy and structural gas expansion. We rate all these companies Outperform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS China’s new 15thFYP strengthens the long term investment case for renewables, nuclear, energy storage and grid equipmentcompanies. The 15thFYP confirms that non-fossil energy will drive China’s path to peak carbon before 2030. While primary energy demand is projected to grow by 2.8% CAGR, we suspect it will be greater than this (the 14thFYP targeted 2.6% CAGRgrowth vs. actual 4.0% CAGR growth). In the coming FYP, we expect coal demand to decline, oil to grow at <1% CAGR, whilegas will grow at 6% CAGR and renewables at 8% CAGR. For investors, this means policy-driven secular growth visibilityfor investments in utility-scale solar, wind, grid equipment, nuclear, and energy storage manufacturers supported by strongpolitical commitment to non-fossil energy expansion. While clean energy acceleration dominates the narrative, the 15th FYPsimultaneously strengthens the investment case for oil and gas through energy security. China targets a more resilient domesticsupply system built on large resource basins, expanded pipeline networks, and reinforced strategic reserves which ensuresoil remains stable and natural gas grows to support system flexibility. Interestingly, the plan shows greater detail on pipelinecorridors than LNG. Within our coverage of China clean tech energy, we rate CATL and Sungrow as Outperform. Among theChinese oil and gas majors, we rate PetroChina and CNOOC at Out