ASML：LNA EUV平均售价有望上涨60%？跑赢大盘

EU Semiconductors ASML Holding NV RatingOutperformPrice Target ASML.NA ASML ASML: LNA EUV ASP seeing 60% upside? Outperform According to Reuters on 23rdof February, ASML announced that it has found a way to push We view ASML’s progress in raising EUV lightsource power to 1000w as a confirmation to ourbull thesis and reiterate Outperform rating, PT= 1,600 with 27% potential upside. See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. DETAILS According to Reuters on 23rdof February, ASML announced that it has found a way to push EUV source power to 1,000 W,up from roughly 600 W on its latest platform, the NXE:3800E, implying that thelight‑sourceoutput would go up more than50%. At its 2024 Capital Markets Day, ASML already laid out a roadmap to reach ~1,000W EUV source power, but framed it asan ambition that was not yet even in R&D, essentially a longer term target rather than a confirmed technical solution. What isnew now is that ASML appears to have found a concrete way to get there (Exhibit 1). This has significant implications in ASML’ssuperior business model. We analyze the implications below. (wafers per hour) and the source power, and the ratio historically is 0.45 WpH/W at 30mJ/cm2. With 1000w source power, that’s roughly equivalent to 330WpH, 50% improvement from the current gen (Exhibit 2). For context, ASML’s current roadmapis from ~220 WpH today for NXEL3800E to ~250 WpH on the NXE:4000F and ~280 WpH on the NXE:4200G, and now thisimplies an upside case to ~330 wafers per hour (Exhibit 3). WpH has an almost linear relationship at around €1Mn/WpH (Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5). Assuming this relationship is maintained, an330WpH EUV means the ASP will be roughly €350Mn,60% higher than €220Mn ASP in 2025. been below productivity improvements and ASP increase, hence margin for EUV has been continuously improving. This year, one reason why ASML’s GM guidance is weaker than expected is due to product mix, where ASML expects to ships more3600D than last year. Investors asked why customers want more 3600D, given it’s an older/slower machine. We believe it’ssimply the result of a fixed process of 3nm uses 3600D and this year the capacity expansion is mostly on 3nm as needed byAI accelerators. From next year onward, the EUV margin should go back to expansion trajectory, enabling ASML corporate GMexpansion. With the 1000W source power, two advances were key: doubling the tin droplet rate to about 100,000 per second and shaping the droplets into plasma with two smaller laser pre pulses instead of the single shaping pulse used today. While there would be some associated costs, it won’t be as significant given the majority of the other components (especially optics)are unchanged. given the shorter learning curve and reusable common parts. EUV is now more likely to replace DUV double patterning(Exhibit 9). Due to the intrinsic physical constraints of ArFi, the throughput for ArFi improvement is slower than EUV (Exhibit 7, Exhibit 8). As such, cost for patterning for EUV can come downfaster than ArFi. Currently EUV is referred over DUV triple patterning but still more expensive than DUV double patterning forlogic. However, with the throughput improvements, there is a roadmap for EUV to replace DUV double patterning in the next 5years. This upside is not in our model yet. and US rivals making competing technologies. If China does make a breakthrough on EUV lithography, ASML would still lead with superior cost and performance; more importantly, the breakthrough might trigger a loosening of restrictions and allowASML to sell EUV to China and capture more value (Exhibit 10) (China/EU Semis: China built an EUV prototype?). For emergingtechnologies such as Substrate (private), a Silicon Valley startup claiming a radically cheaper semiconductor manufacturingmethod using an X-ray light source. As we’ve noted, the idea isn’t new and is far from easy to achieve. (ASML: Can a start-up EXHIBIT 2:ASML has consistently linked the ASP of itsmachines to throughput. In particular, for EUV systems,each increase in throughput has been matched by anequal increase in ASP. EXHIBIT 8:Conversely, EUV throughput is expected tocontinue increasing at an accelerated pace, reaching330 WpH — a level similar to what DUV is projected to EXHIBIT 9:ASML has calculated that, compared with DUV logichas been the morecost‑effectiveoption since 2020. For DRAM, SE EUV became more economical than DUV double‑patterningin 2024. A similar shift is expected fordouble‑patternedlogic in ~2028. With the continuedincrease in EUV throughput, this transition could occur even sooner.Cost per Layer Multiple-patterning vs. Signle Exposure EUV APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS