莫桑比克的增长挑战和政策重点

Growth Challenges andPolicy Priorities in Can Sever SIP/2026/014 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Authorized for distribution by Pablo Lopez Murphy IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Mozambique’s economy has slowed sharply since 2016 with two-thirds of the population below thepoverty line. While over half a million young people enter the job market annually, job creation remains weak, asstructural transformation has favored extractive industries (in particular, capital-intensive LNG projects) overmanufacturing. Agriculture, employing three-quarters of the population, suffers from low productivity and limited RECOMMENDED CITATION:Can Sever. 2026. "Growth Challenges and Policy Priorities in Mozambique;Republic of Mozambique; IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/26/014).Washington, D.C.: International Monetary SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Growth Challenges and Policy Republic ofMozambique Prepared by Can Sever REPUBLIC OFMOZAMBIQUE SELECTED ISSUES Prepared ByCan Sever (AFR) CONTENTS GROWTH CHALLENGES AND POLICIES PRIORITIES _________________________________ 2 A. Introduction __________________________________________________________________________3B. Growth Performance _________________________________________________________________4C. Job Creation __________________________________________________________________________6D. Structural Transformation and Diversification_________________________________________7 FIGURES 1. Economic Growth and Poverty ________________________________________________________52. The Urgent Need for a Job-Intensive Growth Model __________________________________63. Structural Transformation and Diversification _________________________________________7 GROWTH CHALLENGES AND POLICY PRIORITIES Mozambique’s economy has slowed sharply since 2016 with two-thirds of the population below thepoverty line. While over half a million young people enter the job market annually, job creation remainsweak, as structural transformation has favored extractive industries (in particular, capital-intensive LNGprojects) over manufacturing. Agriculture, employing three-quarters of the population, suffers from lowproductivity and limited access to inputs and finance. Informality dominates, accounting for about 95 A.Introduction 1.Mozambique stands at a critical juncture in its development trajectory. After a decade anda half of robust growth averaging nearly 8 percent annually, the economy has experienced a sharpslowdown since 2016, compounded by structural vulnerabilities and governance challenges. This paper 2.The paper is organized as follows. The analysis begins with Section B, which reviewsMozambique’s growth performance, highlighting the post-2016 stagnation and its repercussions onpoverty reduction. Section C underscores the urgent need for creating jobs, given the country’s youngand rapidly expanding population. Section D explores structural transformation and diversification,focusing on the dominance of extractives and the decline of manufacturing. Section E assessesproductivity in agriculture—a sector central to poverty alleviation yet constrained by structuralinefficiencies. Section F examines the role of informality in employment and its dual nature as both a B.Growth Performance 3.Mozambique’s economic performance has weakened markedly since 2016, following thehidden debt scandal that triggered a prolonged slowdown(Figure 1).3Between 2000 and 2015, realGDP grew at a robust average of 7.9 percent per year, well above the Sub-Saharan African average(Figure 1, top-left). During 2016-2024, however, average annual growth plunged to 2.9 percent.4Thedeceleration was broad-based, with services accounting for half of the decline (Figure 1, top-right). As Figure 1. Economic Growth and Poverty Mozambique’s economic performance has weakened The deceleration was broad-based, with services accountingfor half of the decline. C.Job Creation 4.Mozambique faces an urgent challenge to create sufficient employment opportunities forits rapidly growing population.Unlike many countries grappling with aging populations globally,Mozambique’s population is young and booming: the median age is about 17 years, fertility ratesremain high at roughly 5 children per woman, and nearly 45 percent of the population is under the 5.Current estimates by IMF staff suggest that Mozambique will need to create around 0.55million new jobs annually by 2030 to employ the new entrants to the workforce, with thedemand continuing to rise over the next two decades(Figure 2, left). Without adequate jobcreation, poverty and food insecurity could worsen, heightening risk