宏观观察：下一步走向何方？

Soft-wherenext? Markets lean closer to AI winners and losers analysis, as capexgrows more disruption is at our doorsteps. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US The commodity cycle continues to be a major market theme in 2026 – our newHotCommoditieshub brings all our thought-leadership together. To hear more, tune into theBarclays Brief podcast. Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK Join our Macro lens:Software& tear call on Tuesday 10 February at 9AM NYT to discuss the AIimpact on SaaS and the feed-through to macro. PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK AI developments triggered broad concerns about disruption and obsolescence across thesoftwareecosystem. Maximum uncertainty is showing up in major P/E de-ratings, with creditoutperforming the equity drawdown. Meanwhile, hyperscalers continue to invest heavily in AIinfrastructure, driving capex much higher. USjob openings fell again, signalling downside risks to labour demand. ISM services PMI heldsteady,tariffunease resurfaced, and auto sales failed to pick up. We forecast core CPIaccelerated to 0.39% m/m in January, and we’re watching the impact of rising base-metalprices on inflation. The ECBleftpolicy rates unchanged and inflation edged lower. TheUKshowed a similarpattern as the BoE delivered a dovish hold, with inflation and GDP revised down andunemployment revised up. LDP's historic bigger-than-expected victory over the weekend gives the Takaichiadministration more flexibility on policy administration. Markets reacted with aclassic "Takaichi trade," but the win is expected tooffera level of stabilization to Yen riskpremia. Chinastarted 2026 on a weak footing (unexpected PMI contraction andsofthigh-frequencyindicators) but the anti-involution theme is gaining traction. While progress is mixed,authorities have recently intensified regulations insolar,batteriesandautos. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.Completed: 09-Feb-26, 10:05 GMTReleased: 09-Feb-26, 10:05 GMTRestricted - External Barclays Research Highlights Thinking Macro: When markets turn SaaS-y Last week'srisk-offis the market rendering judgment on AI winners and losers, and not aninflection point lower for risk assets. The overall macro outlook has not worsened, as seen inthe equal-weighted S&P marking a new record high. We have been neutral risk assets for threeweeks; we turn positive. Thinking Macro: Base (metal)effects We find that a persistent 10% metal price shock tends to raise headline/core CPI by 0.3/0.2pp,respectively, over two years. The dichotomy between metals and crude complicates the macronarrative. The inflation market appears to be underpricing the upside risk, both in the front-endand in forwards. FIGURE 1. Both base and precious metals have rallied sharply since the beginning of 2025 Source: LME, LBMA, Macrobond, Barclays Research Global banks: Stablecoins – risks and opportunities Stablecoins could pose a long-term risk for banks if they emerge as an alternative to retaildeposits, potentially raising funding costs and weakening liquidity profiles. This balancesagainst opportunities for banks arising from custody services, stablecoin issuance andtokenised deposits. Taiwan lifers: New year, new rules Given the FX hedging rule relaxation for Taiwan lifers and their pledge to increase domesticinvestment, we expect TWD underperformance and a higher TWD NDIRS curve. Sizable currentaccount surplus suggests still robust demand for US assets, despite a gradualshiftin lifers' assetallocation plans. China Technology, U.S. Internet & U.S. Equity Strategy: AI: East vs. West China's AI tech is powered by open-source, low-cost models that support widespread localadoption. Compute advantages keep the US ahead near term, but China stays close. Structuralcapex gaps and monetizationdifferencesfavor US ROIC, yet China’s long-term AI outlookremains strong. FIGURE 2. S&P 500 m