中低收入国家企业层面的气候变化适应（英）2026

AnaGoicoecheaandMeganLang Theeffectsofclimatechangearedisproportionatelyconcentratedinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(LMICs).Firmshaveincentivestoadapttoclimatechange,butmar-ketfrictionscommonindevelopingcountrycontextsmayhinderfirmadaptationefforts.Thispaperreviewsmicroeconomic,empiricalevidenceontheimpactsofclimatechangeonfirmsinLMICsandfirm-leveladaptationstrategies.Currentevidencehighlightschal-lengesandopportunitiesfromclimatechangeandsuggeststhatfirmsareattemptingtoadaptbutfacebarrierstofulladaptation.Limitedgeographiccoverageandafocusonshort-termresponsestoweatherratherthanresponsestolong-termchangesinclimatehighlighttheneedforfurtherworkonfirm-levelclimateadaptationinLMICs. JELCodes:Q54,Q56,O13,O15,Q40Keywords:firms,climateadaptation,developingcountries. 1.Introduction Low-andmiddle-incomecountries(LMICs)aredisproportionatelyaffectedbyclimatechange,includingincreasedtemperatures,droughts,andextremeweatherevents(Hsiang2010,SchlenkerandLobell2010,Dell,Jones,andOlken2012,T.A.CarletonandHsiang2016,T.Carletonetal.2022).Climate change can significantlyaffecttheopera-tionsandprofitabilityoffirmsinLMICsbyloweringlaborproductivity,damagingcap-italstocks,changingdemandforgoods,anddisruptingsupplychains.Firm-levelcli-mateimpactsinturnhaveimplicationsforprivatesectordevelopmentandeconomicgrowth.Intheory,firmshaveincentivestoadapttoclimatechange.Profitswillbehigherfor firmsthatcanprotectoperationsfromtheeffectsofextremeheatorinvestincapitalthatisresilienttonaturaldisasters.Inpractice,marketsinLMICsareoftencharacter-izedbyfrictionsthatcaninhibitadaptation.Forinstance,credit-constrainedfirmsmay notbeabletoinvestinclimate-resilienttechnologies.Incompleteinformationmaymakeitdifficultforfirmstoformcorrectexpectationsabouttheimpactsofclimatechange.Understandinghowmarketfrictionsshapefirm-levelclimateadaptationinLMICsiscentraltounderstandingtheroleofgovernmentadaptationpoliciesfortheprivatesector.Wereviewtheevidenceonlinksbetweennon-agriculturalfirmsandclimateadap- tationinLMICs(forageneralreviewofclimateadaptationinLMICs,seeKala,Balboni,andBhogale2023). Our guiding frameworkisthefirm’sproblemunderclimatechange:firmsmaximizeprofitsbycombiningcapital,labor,andotherinputstoproduceout-puts,conditionalontheirbeliefsaboutthefutureclimateandthereturnstodifferentadaptivemeasures.Climateissimilartoothertypesofshocksinthatitaffectsdemand,inputs,andproduction.Unlikeothershocks,firmscanplanforclimatechangeandadapt.Thefeasibilityandreturnstodifferentadaptiveactionsdependonthemarketandpolicyenvironment.Ourframeworkmotivatesthefocusofourreview:empiri-cal,microeconomicevidenceontheimpactsofclimateonfirmsandfirm-levelclimateadaptationinLMICs.1Ourreviewrevealsbothchallengesandopportunitiesforfirmsfromclimatechange. Climate-inducedmigrationlowerslocaldemandforservicefirmsinoriginlocationswhilereducinglaborcostsindestinationlocations.Naturaldisasterscausetheleastproductivefirmstoexit,leadingtoindividuallossesbutaggregategainsinproductivity.Heatreduceslaborproductivity,differentiallyaffectinglaborversuscapital-intensivefirms.Thereislessevidenceonfirmadaptation.Firmsfacingsupplychaindisruptionsholdlargerinventories.Somefirmsinvestinmoreresilientcapitalwhenre-buildingfromstorms.However,firmsareconstrainedintheirabilitytoadapt.Managersre-portlackinginformation.Firmswithtighterfinancialconstraintsfareworsethanthosewithlooserfinancialconstraintswhenfacedwithaweathershock.Therearealsolim-itstofirm-leveladaptation.Hightemperatureslowersleepquality,reducinglaborpro-ductivityeveninclimate-controlledworkenvironments.Whenfloodingblocksroads,workerscannotcommuteandfirmsmuststopproduction.Weidentifythreemajorgapsintheevidence.Thefirstisgeographic.Thereislittle evidenceonfirm-levelclimateadaptationforfirmsinalargemajorityofLMICs.Chinaisanotableexception.Giventhattheimpactsofclimatechange,relevantmarketfric-tions,andpolicyenvironmentsvarysubstantially,itisimportanttogatherevidenceonfirmadaptationstrategiesinawiderangeofcontexts.Geographicgapsareparticularlyimportantbecauseunderstandinghowmarketfrictionsandthepolicyenvironmentshapefirm-leveladaptationiscentraltoidentifyingtheroleofgovernmentinterven-tion.Thesecondgapistranslatingshort-termresponsestospecificweathershocksintolong-termresponsestoclimatechange.Third,itremainsunclearunderwhatcon-ditionsgrowth-orientedpoliciesforprivatesectordevelopmentalsobuildclimatere-silience,orwhetherclimatechangerequiresaseparatepolicyresponsetoaddressthemarketimperfectionshinderingfirm-levelclimateadaptation. 2.AnalyticalFramework Ourguidingframeworkisthefirm’sproblemunderclimatechange.Thefirmmeetsde-mandbycombiningcapital,labor,andotherinputstoproduceoutput.Weatheraffectsinputs,thefirm’sproductionfunction,output,anddemand.Thefirmchooseshowtocombinecapital,labor,andotherinputstoproduceoutputandmaximizeprofitgivenweatherconditions.Itcantakeadaptiveactionstomediatetheeffectsofweather,butitwillonlydosoifthebenefitsofanadaptiveactionexceedthecosts.Thefirmfacesadifferentrealizationofweathereachday.Itcanmakesomead-