天气预报的经济价值：定量系统文献综述（英）

11213 The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review Hannah FarkasManuel LinsenmeierMarta TaleviPaolo AvnerBramka Arga JafinoMoussa Sidibe Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global DepartmentSeptember 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11213 Abstract This study systematically reviews the literature that quan-tifies the economic benefits of weather observations andforecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agri-culture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management.The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is con-centrated in high-income countries and most studies usetheoretical models, followed by observational and thenexperimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied,meteorological variables and services, and monetizationtechniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits evenwithin specific subsectors span several orders of magnitudeand broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-anal-ysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barri-ers that hinder value realization are identified on both theprovider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weakdissemination, and limited ability to act recurring acrosssectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-enve-lope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather thanon the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature,revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggestsubstantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorolog-ical services around the world, but also knowledge gapsthat require more valuation studies focusing on low- andmiddle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuationmethods to complement and validate theoretical models. This paper is a product of the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Department. It is part ofa larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policydiscussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at pavner@worldbank.org, msidibe3@worldbank.org and bjafino@worldbank.org. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts:A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review Hannah FarkasManuel LinsenmeierMarta TaleviPaolo AvnerBramka Arga JafinoMoussa Sidibe∗ JEL Classification Numbers: H43, H54, Q54, Q58, Q16, Q01 Keywords: weather forecast, economic valuation, value of hydrometeorological services,barriers to use of weather and climate services ∗Farkas:School of Public and International Affairs, Columbia University (hannah.farkas@columbia.edu);Linsenmeier:HighMeadows Environmental Institute,Princeton University(mlinsenmeier@princeton.edu); Talevi: School of Economics, University College Dublin (marta.talevi@ucd.ie); Avner:World Bank (pavner@worldbank.org); Jafino: World Bank (bjafino@worldbank.org); Sidibe: World Bank(msidibe3@worldbank.org). This study was supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reductionand Recovery (GFDRR) and the Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance. The authors are grateful to MelanieSimone Kappes and Jeffrey Shrader for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. 1Introduction Weather forecasts provide users around the world with valuable advance information abouttemperature, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological variables that may affect their activi-ties and wellbeing. For decades, researchers have examined the uses and benefits of weatherinformation, offering insights on needs, barriers, and improvement opportunities to users,providers, and policy makers.Quantifying the potential economic value of weather infor-mation and forecasts is crucial to inform investments in observation infrastructure and thefuture development of numerical models.Additionally, understanding barriers to the ef-fective provision and use of weather information helps guide improvements in weather andclimate service design and dissemination to turn this potential value into real benefits. The body of academic literature on the economic benefits of weather information hasexpanded