阿富汗的 displacement and emigration crisis has reached an unprecedented scale, with far-reaching economic ramifications for both Afghanistan and neighboring countries. The combined total of refugees, IDPs, and economic migrants now accounts for nearly half of Afghanistan’s population. This mass movement of people has created a dual challenge: an acute humanitariansituation and a structural macroeconomic shock.
For Afghanistan, the loss of population and internal displacement have led to reduced output and potential growth—partly due to “brain drain”—while placing additional strain on already limited fiscal resources. Although remittances from abroad have provided some relief, the negative economic consequences are likely to persist and deepen unless the underlying causes of displacement and emigration are addressed.
For host countries, particularly Iran and Pakistan, the influx of Afghan refugees and migrants has brought both opportunities and pressures. On one hand, Afghan labor can contribute to higher output; on the other hand, large and sustained inflows can depress wages, exacerbate local labor market competition, and strain public services and infrastructure, especially in regions with high concentrations of Afghan refugees and economic migrants.
Simulation results using the IMF’s FSGM highlight the importance of coordinated strategies. Isolated measures—such as forced repatriation—may bring fiscal and labor market relief for host countries but can further undermine Afghanistan’s already fragile economy. In contrast, simultaneous efforts to reduce displacement drivers in Afghanistan and to improve refugee integration in host countries can generate mutually beneficial outcomes, especially when there is adequate international support. Such findings underscore that durable solutions need both humanitarian responses and long-term strategies to tackle the root causes of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis, as well as promote inclusive regional growth.
