德国的电网改革会成为下一个催化剂吗？

2025E2026E2027E9,759.09,528.010,915.0-9,730.09,532.010,838.01.151.061.26-1.141.051.23 Ahmed Farman * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8987 | afarman@jefferies.comZach Ho * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7548 4714 | zach.ho@jefferies.comAlejandra Botbol * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4326 | abotbol@jefferies.comArturo Murua * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7548 4344 | amurua@jefferies.comExhibit 2 - JEF implied EV/EBITDA valuation ofE.ON Networks + EIS vs peers.1%-4%-2%-7%Source: Factset, Jefferies Estimates, Company Data The Long View: E.ONInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferFollowing a 40% YTD stock rally, we run scenarios to assess if June/July draft framework updates on German grid regulation could add moremomentum. We think these updates would need to indicate significantimprovement in regulation, with a path towards >10% FY29 all-in RoE vs.(JEFe of 9% for FY24-28) for a >10% stock move. Such EPS catalysts arenow critical for stock outperformance, as the implied valuation of E.ON'sNetworks seems in line with peers.Base Case,€16, +4%•Target FY26 P/E multiple of 15.1x, and EV/EBITDA of 10.2x•Continued organic growth on Networks andEIS, in line with the latest guidance, despiteseveral one-offs.•E.ON delivers 3.5% DPS growth per annumbetween 2025-28.Sustainability MattersTop Ranked ESG Issue: GHG Emissions –New statutory CO2 emission disclosure requirementsfor all large unquoted companies (from April 2022) and quoted companies, paired with increasedstakeholder interest in corporate responsibility, make this an increasingly important driver for ourstocks.Company Targets (s):1) 75% reduction in scope 1 &2 emissions in 2030 and 50% reduction in scope 3emissions vs 2019. 2) Net zero in scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2040 3) Net zero in scope 3 commissionsby 2050.Questions to Management:1) Given supply issues in Germany, how are you going to ensure thattargeted sustainability progress isn’t compromised? 2) How is ESG factored into your capital allocationdecision process? 3) Do you expect policy in your operating regions to financially support investmentin decarbonization?Link to ESG Integration Report —herePlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,€18, +17%•Target FY26 P/E multiple of 17x, and EV/EBITDA of 10.7x•Continued organic growth on Networks andEnergy Retail, with EIS and services growthhigher than expected•Increased margin effect on Energy Retailbusiness•Improved regulatory conditions for Networks•E.ON delivers 3.5% DPS growth per annumbetween 2025-28. Downside Scenario,€13, -16%•Target FY26 P/E multiple of 12.3x, and EV/EBITDA of 9.4x•Poor organic growth on Networks and EnergyRetail, falling short of growth rates from thelatest guidance.•Worsening margin effect on Energy Retail,with further demand destruction and morecompetition in key markets•Worsening regulatory conditions for Networks•E.ON delivers 3.5% DPS growth per annumbetween 2025-28.Catalysts•Jun/Jul2025:Germanconsultation•13 Aug 2025:1H25 Results•12 Nov 2025:9M25 Results regulation2 JEF Mid assumptions.Our Mid-scenario assumes a 6% pre-tax WACC for all German grids from2029 onwards. This consists of a post-tax base equity return of 6% and a post-tax cost of debtof 4.2%. Our Mid-case WACC is based on a risk-free rate of 3%, broadly in line with the currentGerman 20-year government bond yield.Exhibit 3 - JEF scenarios of E.ON base return and outperformance in German grids.(in €m unless stated)Base regulated RoE (post-tax, %)Outperformance as reg rquity (%)Total German RoE (%)FY29 Group EBITDA (€m)vs cons %FY29 Group EBIT (€m)vs cons %Source: Company Data, Visible Alpha, Jefferies EstimatesTo get to the implied Networks + EIS EV/EBITDA valuation in our mid case, we assume a Retailnet debt/EBITDA of 0.5x to 1x and a Retail P/E of 10x to get to our JEF Retail EV. We deductRetail EV from Group EV to obtain Networks + EIS EV. On EPS, JEFe FY25 Retail EPS is €0.39,accounting for 34% of the group estimate.Exhibit 4 - JEF financial forecasts under Mid scenario (€m unless stated).EV/Market CapEVEV - RetailEV Implied - Networks + EISNet debt - RetailNet debt - Networks + EISEquity (€/share) - Retail at 8-10x P/EEquity Implied (€/share) - Networks + EISP&L MetricsEBITDA - Networks + EISEBITDA - RetailEBITDAEBIT - Networks + EISEBIT - RetailEBITEPS - Networks + EISEPS - RetailEPS (€/share)DPS (€/share)JEF vs ConsEBITDA (%)EBIT (%)EPS (%)Networks + EIS MetricsP/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)EV/EBIT (x)Net debt / EBITDA (x)Group MetricsP/E (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)EV/EBIT (x)Net debt / EBITDA (x)Source: Jefferies estimates, company data, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. FY24-28High CaseMid CaseLow Case4.5%7.0%6.0%5.5%4.4%3.8%3.6%3.0%8.9%10.8%9.6%8.5%13,10112,84312,4756%3%0%8,7508,4928,1248