同程旅行（780 hk）：保持稳定航向

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsFind out moreMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)21.0021.00SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE20.50+2.44%(as of23 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)47,848Free float16%Market cap (USDm)6,109BBG780 HK3m ADTV (USDm)46RIC0780.HKFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS1.211.481.742.04HSBC EPS (prev)1.211.391.691.97Change (%)0.06.02.7Consensus EPS1.181.411.671.90PE (x)15.5412.7310.829.20Dividend yield (%)0.961.611.952.34EV/EBITDA (x)8.146.214.964.08ROE (%)14.7015.8416.4417.0152-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesParash Jain*Global Head of Transport & Logistics ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedparashjain@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6717Deepak Maurya*, CFAAnalyst, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddeepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4292Bruce Chu*, CFAAssociate, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6621* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesInternet Software & ServicesChina11.0017.5024.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 21.00High: 22.40 Low: 12.70 Current: 20.50 ◆◆◆ 3.9 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue17,34119,16521,39524,128EBITDA4,0504,9635,6376,478Depreciation & amortisation-1,083-1,207-1,262-1,351Operating profit/EBIT2,9683,7564,3755,126Net interest-36-83-969PBT2,3983,2553,9354,729HSBC PBT3,1953,8864,5915,415Taxation-410-488-590-709Net profit1,9742,7503,3253,996HSBC net profit2,7713,3813,9804,682Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations2,9704,0345,1224,166Capex-580-1,437-1,605-1,810Cash flow from investment-155-2,130-2,593-2,971Dividends-412-694-839-1,009Change in net debt-149-2,178-2,830-1,525FCF equity2,3902,5973,5172,357Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets11,72311,32110,91510,480Tangible fixed assets3,1473,7794,5285,421Current assets18,37720,06124,62625,962Cash & others11,06313,24016,07017,596Total assets37,91439,82844,73546,530Operating liabilities11,89511,09413,08811,273Gross debt4,1544,1544,1544,154Net debt-6,909-9,087-11,916-13,442Shareholders' funds20,00122,70025,72929,315Invested capital10,29010,82710,91012,995Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue45.7710.5211.6312.77EBITDA29.6522.5413.5714.92Operating profit34.0926.5616.4817.19PBT29.3535.7620.8820.19HSBC EPS27.0122.0017.7217.62Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.841.821.972.02ROIC32.5736.7140.9042.98ROE14.7015.8416.4417.01ROA6.257.788.459.27EBITDA margin23.3625.9026.3526.85Operating profit margin17.1119.6020.4521.25EBITDA/net interest (x)111.6659.54651.33Net debt/equity-32.96-38.38-44.59-44.31Net debt/EBITDA (x)-1.71-1.83-2.11-2.08CF fromoperations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.861.201.451.74HSBC EPS (diluted)1.211.481.742.04DPS0.180.300.370.44Book value8.739.9111.2312.80Financials & valuation:Tongcheng Travel Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 23 May 2025 2Q25results previewFor 2Q25, we forecast11% growth in core OTA revenue, led by13% higherhotel reservationrevenuepartly dragged by 5%growth in transport ticketing revenue.We expect adj. core OTAmargin to improve by 1.5ppts y-o-y to 25.8%. We forecast adj. NP of RMB775m, which is up18% y-o-y and 4% ahead of consensus.Exhibit2. Tongcheng Travel: 2Q25results preview2Q25e4,5571,3461,8237406472,962(520)(1,549)(1,502)(260)(164)(87)(2,329)(2,227)747998(17)92Reported IFRS profits (before minority interests)709Reported non-IFRS profits (before minority interests)77565.0%11.4%34.0%5.7%13.9%25.8%2.5%16.4%21.9%17.0%Source: Company data,HSBC estimates,Bloomberg consensusEarnings estimate revisionsWetrimtopline by1-4% for 2025-27e as weexpect lower revenue contribution from the tourismbusiness due to the ongoing safety concerns in the Southeast Asia region.However, we raiseour net profit estimates by 3-6% on better margins and beat in 1Q25.As a result, our 2025-27 earnings estimates are 2-4% ahead of consensus. 2Q24% y-o-y1Q25% q-o-qConsensusvs consensus4,2457%4,3774%4,669-2%1,19113%1,19013%1,3480%1,7435%2,000-9%1,916-5%59225%60323%47057%719-10%585n/a667-3%2,7448%3,012-2%3,095-4%(494)5%(495)5%(527)-1%3%(1,454)7%(1,587)-2%(272)-5%(307)-16%(316)-18%(170)-4%(195)-16%(85)2%(91)-5%5%(2,195)6%(2,370)-2%65913%874-14%826-9%9139%1,159-14%22-177%(12)40%(110)-184%(127)-173%42965%6794%58820%65718%788-2%7434%64.6%0.4 ppt68.8%-3.8 ppt66.3%-1.3 ppt11.6%-0.2 ppt11.3%0.1 ppt11.3%0.1 ppt35.4%-1.4 ppt33.2%0.8 ppt34.0%0.0 ppt6.4%-0.7 ppt7.0%-1.3 ppt6.8%-1.1 ppt12.2%1.7 ppt18.7%-4.8 ppt15.5%-1.6 ppt24.3%1.5 ppt29.2%-3.4 ppt0.1%2.4 ppt4.4%-1.9 ppt15.5%0.9 ppt20.0%-3.6 ppt17.7%-1.3 ppt21.5%0.4 ppt26.5%-4.6 ppt15.5%1.5 ppt18.0%-1.0 ppt15.9%1.1 ppt Valu