逆全球化毕竟，这是一个大世界：逆全球化世界中赢家和输家的行业调查

Colin McGranahan, Head of Researchcolin.mcgranahan@bernsteinsg.com+1 917 344 8367Neil Beveridge, Ph.D., Director of Research, Asia ex-Indianeil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com+852 2123 2648Venugopal Garre, Director of Research, Indiavenugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com+65 6326 7643Michael W. Parker, Head of Research, APAC and EMEAmichael.parker@bernsteinsg.com+44 207 762 4090Emmanuel Turpin, Co-Head of Research, EMEAemmanuel.turpin@bernsteinsg.com+44 207 676 6869PORTFOLIO MANAGER'S SUMMARYThe modern era of globalization may have begun with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November1989, the Marrakesh Agreement creating the World Trade Organization in April 1994, or theFriendspilot (“The One Where Monica Gets A Roommate”), first broadcast in September ofthat same year. Regardless, the last three decades have been defined by the ever-greater flowof goods, services, people, capital, and ideas around the world. The planet appeared to getsmaller… at least if you were the kind of global citizen who had access to Starbucks frappuccino,Adidas Samba, Samsung OLED screens, a North American post-graduate qualification… andBernsteinBlackbooks. Regardless of how it started, that era is over now.ThisBlackbookis neither a eulogy nor a lament. It is, instead, an estimate — across three dozenanalysts in eight different locations globally — of the impact of deglobalization on their sectors,and a forecast of which companies may win and lose.Alex Irving, ourEuropean Transportanalyst, reiterates his long-held view that most optionsin global trade are myths. Decoupling from China is impossible and reshoring isn’t happening.Even evidence of nearshoring is absent from trade data despite the decade-long evolution of thetrade relationship between the US and China from partner to competitor. Jay Huang, ourAsiaIndustrial Technologyanalyst, highlights that deglobalization has accelerated investment forautomation technologies as a “local-for-local” orientation and is evident everywhere. Counter-intuitively, in industrial machinery and electronics components, foreign investment in Chinacontinues to grow. Zhihan Ma, ourUS Broadlines and Hardlinesanalyst, highlights that manyUS retailers have anticipated rising trade frictions: Target has already reduced its exposure toChina for private label discretionary products from 60% to roughly one-quarter.The event that ended this era of globalization is as vague as the event that precipitated it. Itmay have been the Brexit vote in 2016, the outbreak of Covid-19 in 2019, or the Liberation Dayin 2025. Regardless of how trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world areconcluded, every procurement officer, sales representative, ambassador (brand or otherwise),and holidaymaker globally is now factoring in the risk of heretofore unanticipated cross-borderfrictions. At the most prosaic level, there is a non-zero possibility that the rules of engagementfor global trade may be altered again before we release this report. And all we are trying to dois publish aBlackbook. For anyone building a factory, a supply chain, or a global brand, thoseuncertainties elevate the value of options in sourcing and distribution, and in staying close tohome. Nobody told us life was going to be this way. It’s a big world, after all.DEGLOBALIZATION: IT’S A BIG WORLD, AFTER ALL May 19, 20251 TABLE OF CONTENTSSTRATEGYDEGLOBALIZATION: TARIFFS — A NEW WORLD ORDER- Rupal Agarwal, Cheng Zhang, CFA, CQFDEGLOBALIZATION: RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AND INDIA- Venugopal Garre, Nikhil Arela, Ankit Agrawal, CFAHOW TRADE BARRIERS AND RESOURCE NATIONALISM THREATEN THESUSTAINABILITY REVOLUTION- Yannick Ouaknine, Nimit Agarwal, Virgile Haddad, CFA, Emilie PasquierCONSUMER & RETAILTHE WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM AN END TO INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL- Richard J. Clarke, FCA, Niall MitchelsonTARIFFS, MIGRATION, AND ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENT WEIGHING ONRESTAURANTS- Danilo Gargiulo, Sagar Dave, Linh NguyenWHY RECIPROCAL TARIFFS CAN’T BRING APPLIANCE MANUFACTURINGHOME- Melinda Hu, Ran YangUS RETAILING BROADLINES & HARDLINES: TARIFF AND IMMIGRATIONPOLICY RISKS ON RETAILERS- Zhihan Ma, CFA, Sophie Lupatkin, Jeremy Miles, Hazel WangGLOBAL SPIRITS: THE DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD OF PROTECTEDGEOGRAPHICAL INDICATION IN SPIRITS- Nadine Sarwat, CFA, Trevor Stirling, Matthew CheungGLOBAL LUXURY GOODS IN A DEGLOBALIZING WORLD- Luca Solca, Maria Meita, Eric Chen, CFA, Yi-Peng KhooUS AND EUROPE APPAREL: HOW FLEXIBLE ARE FASHION SUPPLY CHAINS?- William Woods, Aneesha Sherman, Ellen Lundstrom, ACA, Jessica Tian, RheaGudiwala, Jed HodulikFINANCIALSBITCOIN AND DECENTRALIZED TECH ACCELERATE AS THE ALTERNATIVEGLOBAL SETTLEMENT LAYER- Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar ChindaliaDEGLOBALIZATION: IT’S A BIG WORLD, AFTER ALL 917253543515967758397 HEALTHCAREUS BIOPHARMA: WILL TARIFFS UNDO GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND TAXOPTIMIZATION?- Courtney Breen, Xiaobin Xu, Ph.D., Woody PolglaseUS LIFE SCIENCE TOOLS: DOES IMPROVING LOCAL COMPETITION MAKECHINA A DEAD MARKET?- Eve Burstein, Alberto Buccellato,