2024-2004年全球机队和MRO市场预测

2 © Oliver WymanFOREWORDOliver Wyman’sGlobal Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2024–2034marks our firm’s 24th assessmentof the 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance,repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. We are proud to say that this annually produced research,along with ourAirline Economic Analysis, has become a staple resource of executives working inaerospace manufacturing, airlines, MRO, and aviation investment and private equity.2024 marks a year when the industry is ready to start growing again after almost four yearsof challenges and turmoil around the COVID-19 pandemic. This year holds its own set ofchallenges, from continued labor shortages and supply chain fragility to production constraints,slower economic growth, and climate change. As always, we hope the data and insights in theGlobal Fleet and MRO Market Forecast2024-2034help you better navigate the perils and seizeopportunities moving forward.And speaking of opportunities, we would like to sharethe news ofour latest acquisition of SeaTecConsulting Inc,a leading provider of consulting, engineering, and digital expertisein aviation,aerospace and defense, and transportation.SeaTecjoins CAVOK,a division of Oliver Wyman focused on aviation services, to further elevateOliver Wyman’s commitment to aviation, aerospace and defense, and transportation.In 2022,Oliver Wyman also acquired Avascent, a top management consulting firm and boutique privateequity and M&A adviser for the aerospace and defense sector. Avascent was also combined lastyear with CAVOK. Please contact us to find out more about our new capabilities.Meanwhile, Oliver Wyman’s Market Intelligence team, partners, and vice presidents are availableto assist with any questions about this forecast, as well as with theAirline Economic Analysis, whichis scheduled to be released in March.Looking forward to another year of collaborating with you.Brian PrenticePartner and study leaderOliver Wyman Anthony DiNotaSenior VicePresident and General ManagerCAVOK Oliver Wyman © Oliver WymanCONTENTSExecutive Summary.........................................................................................................5State of the Industry......................................................................................................10In-Service Fleet Forecast...............................................................................................21MRO Forecast.................................................................................................................32 4 © Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY © Oliver WymanBACK ON AGROWTH TRAJECTORYThe global commercial aircraft fleet will be back to setting records again in 2024, the first yearof real growth since the peak set before the onset of theCOVID-19pandemic. But despite risingdemand for air travel, a return of profitability, and more new fuel-efficient aircraft, the fleet willexperience slower growth than in the years before the pandemic.Between 2024 and 2034, our latestGlobal Fleet and MROMarketForecastexpects the number ofcommercial aircraft worldwide to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%,reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. That’s up 28% from today’s fleet of around28,400 aircraft.While that’s decent growth, it falls far short of the 39,000 aircraft we predicted by 2030 in the lastforecast Oliver Wyman published just before the outbreak ofCOVID. We now do not expect theglobal fleet to reach that size before 2036, meaning the industry essentially lost six yearsof growth to COVID.The new forecast CAGR is also lower than the 2.9% Oliver Wyman forecast last year for 2023through 2033. Thisyear’s CAGR has been tempered by the modest global economic growththat high interest rates courtesy of central bankers worldwide made inevitable.Meanwhile, the global maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market will also begin to setrecords again. 2024’s spending is expected to hit $104 billion. In real terms, that’s 1% above thepeak set at the beginning of 2020 before COVID. By 2034, Oliver Wyman’s global forecast expectsMRO demand to reach $124 billion, expanding at a 1.8% CAGR over the 10 years versus the 2.9%predicted by our 2023-2033 forecast.NEWLEADERSThe location of the fleet will be changing over the next 10 years as well. By 2034, China willbecome the second-largest fleet worldwide—displacing Western Europe which slips to No. 3.Biggest-fleet honors throughout the decade will remain with North America, where the fleet todaytallies around 8,200. It willgrow to 9,850by 2034.China has around 4,100aircraftand will grow to just over 6,400. That means China’s fleet will be65% as big as North America’s in 2034, versus 50% in 2024. Despite the 56% expansion for China,that fleet will not be the fastest growing because of the slower underlying growth of the Chineseeconomy, which is dealing with an implosion of real estate values and an aging population.Currently at