未来金属2.0：能源转型如何重塑金属市场

EM ERGI NG M A R K ETS DEBT Metals of the Future 2.0: How the EnergyTransition Is Transforming the Metals Markets In the two years since we publishedour researchon electric vehicles(EVs) and metals, we’ve seen a dynamic metals market unfold beforeour eyes. The copper, lithium, and nickel markets are undergoing arapid transformation, driven by the green energy revolution, which hasspurred investments and innovation to meet the growing demand ofEVs and renewable energy. In this paper, we explore how supply anddemand for some of these “commodities of the future” have been shapedby the transition to a low-carbon future. We also explore governmentalresponses from emerging markets (EMs) to these shifting dynamics. December 2023 Corporate Credit AnalystAlexandra Symeonidi, CFA Demand Dynamics The energy transition from traditional fossil fuels torenewable resources, as well as the electrification of severalglobal economic sectors, is now evident in the demand forcopper, lithium, and nickel. Investments in electric gridsworldwide have accelerated in the last couple of years as aresult of investments in renewable power systems and theinfrastructure needed to support the electrificationof transportation and other sectors. In Europe, EV sales continue to advance, with EVregistrations recording a whopping compound annualgrowth rate (CAGR) of 55% from 2017 to 2022. Grid andinfrastructure investments, coupled with EV adoption,constitute the largest consumers of copper worldwide,strengthening copper demand resilience in the face ofcurrent economic challenges. Copper According to the International Energy Agency (IEA),global investment in electricity grids increased around8% in 2022. China has led this growth, with investmentsin grid and infrastructure up 28% year-over-year fromJanuary to October 2023. Chinese demand for coppernow constitutes 60% of the world total. While demand forall copper uses is higher than historical records, demandfor wire, which has multiple uses in the grid and EVinfrastructure, has significantly outperformed demandfor other copper uses in China. EXHIBIT 1 Demand Dynamics(continued) EXHIBIT 2 EXHIBIT 3 Demand Dynamics(continued) Lithium EXHIBIT 4 Among all commodities of the future, lithium has probablyundergone the greatest transformation. The electrificationof transportation has driven a colossal shift in the demandcomposition for lithium, which had a CAGR of 23% from2017 to 2022. EV batteries are the biggest contributor tothis dynamic, now representing more than 50% of totaldemand for lithium (up from about 30% in 2017). Otheruses of lithium include consumer electronics (whichuse lithium-ion batteries), glass making, ceramics, andpharmaceuticals. ““ Among all commodities of the future,lithium has probably undergone thegreatest transformation.” Alexandra Symeonidi, CFA Demand Dynamics(continued) Nickel EXHIBIT 5 Nickel demand has been accelerating in the last threeyears. It grew 11% in 2022 and is expected to grow another14% in 2023. For context, demand growth for mostindustrial metals is comparable to global annual grossdomestic product (GDP) growth, which has been muchlower than the double-digit growth experienced in nickel.This growth is a result of nickel being used as a componentof EV batteries. The composition of nickel demand hasbeen changing too. Clean energy now constitutes 16% oftotal demand, up from just 6% in 2017. EXHIBIT 6 Supply Dynamics The supply response to the very pronounced demandshifts observed in these metals has been remarkable.Automakers, equipment manufacturers, and battery cellmakers all want to get involved in the value chain of thesecritical metals. As we illustrated in our previous paper,demand for these metals is expected to accelerate evenfurther, raising questions about scarcity and the abilityof supply to meet demand. EXHIBIT 7 Copper While copper miners recognize copper’s importancefor green technologies, production is challenging.Copper miners have faced increased regulatory scrutiny,aging assets, declining grades (the concentration ofcopper in the ore being mined), and changing weatherpatterns, including pronounced droughts in Chile andflooding in Zambia. Global copper supply has grown onlyin the low-single-digit levels over the past three years,with new projects in Peru and the Democratic Republicof Congo mostly offsetting lower production in theworld’s largest copper producing country, Chile. Thishas resulted in market deficits over the past three years.In 2023, a surplus is expected due to lackluster demandfrom developed markets. Despite these dynamics, copper miners are rampingup investments to fulfil the high anticipated demand.Capital expenditures in the 10 largest miners, whichrepresent about 44% of global production, increased 13%in 2022 and are expected to grow another 14% in 2023. “Copper miners have faced increasedregulatory scrutiny, aging assets,declining grades and changing weatherpatterns, including pronounceddroug