核心观点
- Qatar Banks Q1 2025 Performance: The combined net income of covered Qatar banks remained flat year-on-year, slightly below expectations. NIMs declined on average by 21bp year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the rate of decline accelerating at QIB & Masraf and decelerating at CBQ and Doha Bank. Banks re-priced assets lower to absorb the impact of lower US Fed rates since September 2024. QNB's NIM improved to 2.74% in Q1 2025, aided by exposure to Türkiye.
- Pre-provision Operating Profit: The rate of decline in pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) improved at CBQ and Doha Bank in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. PPOP increased by 2% year-on-year at QIB and 4% at QNB in Q1 2025. Masraf's PPOP fell by only 5% year-on-year in Q1 2025 compared to a -2% decline in Q4 2024. Excluding QNB, the cost/income ratio improved sequentially across covered banks, partially supported by better-than-expected non-funded income.
- Tax Exemptions: CBQ, Doha, QIB, and Masraf benefited from tax exemptions applicable to companies operating in six or fewer foreign countries with NAV less than EUR50m. The exemptions may last 5 years, and banks have built precautionary provisions to compensate for any potential tax liability. Further clarification on the tax position is expected in Q3 2025.
- Revisions: Lower tax rate assumptions offset negative revisions to pre-tax earnings at CBQ, Masraf, and QIB. Positive net income revisions of +41% in 2026e at Doha Bank were driven by more optimistic NIM expectations and lower NIM. Transition period growth rates were raised at Doha, Masraf, and QIB based on positive earnings revisions.
- Ratings and Target Prices: HSBC maintains a Buy rating on CBQ, Doha, QIB, and QNB, and a Hold rating on Masraf Al Rayan. Target prices were raised at Doha, Masraf, and QIB, reflecting improved earnings estimates.
- Valuation: Covered stocks trade at 9.7x EPS 2026e and yield 4.6% in 2025e.
关键数据
- NIM Decline: Average NIM decline of 21bp year-on-year in Q1 2025 (34bp in Q4 2024).
- PPOP Growth: PPOP increased by 2% year-on-year at QIB and 4% at QNB in Q1 2025. Masraf's PPOP fell by 5% year-on-year in Q1 2025.
- Tax Exemption Duration: Potential duration of 5 years.
- Net Income: Combined net income flat year-on-year.
- EPS Revision: Raise EPS '25e at Doha Bank, Masraf, QIB and trim at CBQ.
- Target Price Revision: Raise TPs at Doha, Masraf, and QIB.
研究结论
HSBC believes the tax exemptions are a positive development for covered Qatar banks, contributing to improved profitability. The bank maintains a Buy rating on CBQ, Doha, QIB, and QNB, and a Hold rating on Masraf Al Rayan, with target prices reflecting positive earnings revisions and growth prospects.
