2025年第一季度英国制造业展望报告

QUARTER 1 2025 Manufacturing OutlookQuarter 1 2025Manufacturing OutlookQuarter 1 2025 Foreword Dr. Séamus NevinChief EconomistMake UK Richard AustinHead of ManufacturingBDO LLP The Westminster government also sought to strengthenthe UK economy through economic solidarity and mutualsecurity. Businesses were encouraged to modernise theiroperations by investing in mechanisation while, instead ofretaliatory tariffs, the British government persisted in its freetrade policy. William McKinley was a largely forgotten US Presidentuntil Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House as thebiggest fan of the man he dubs the “tariff king”. Trump, who renamed North America’s highest peak to MountMcKinley in honour of his predecessor, has announced aseries of his own tariffs on imports from Canada, China,Mexico, and elsewhere. As this edition of Make UK/BDOManufacturing Outlookshows, talk of tariffs on the UK hasspooked British businesses. At the time of writing, US tariffson UK steel and aluminium have today been introduced. Technological advances, including the increased availabilityof affordable energy, enhanced telecommunications andtransport links sparked a manufacturing industry upsurgeand a golden age for British financial services. The flow ofimmigrants into the country also helped to fuel an industrialboom, providing a much-needed pool of skilled labour andhelping to spread ideas and innovation. In the 1890s, McKinley pushed for protectionism to shielddomestic industries from foreign competition and wasinstrumental in enacting massive import tariffs - 50% onaverage - as part of a plan to use America’s “economicforce” to annex Canada and turn it into a US state. McKinley eventually concluded that trade wars were notthe path to global pre-eminence after Canada and othercountries began shifting away from the United States to alignmore with Great Britain. While President Trump has hailed McKinley’s presidencyas a model for modern US leadership, economic historianshave pointed out that the ‘McKinley Tariff’ produced aturbulent decade for the US economy, resulting in a majorrecession and double-digit unemployment. If the above sounds similar to the politics of today, it isbecause the policy response of the 1890s was informed byeconomic concerns reminiscent to those we now face. The Bank of England has warned that Trump’s tariff plansthreaten to shrink the UK economy and push down growth.The impact on inflation is less clear but protectionistpolicies could leave less money in Britons’ pockets. Afterinheriting challenging circumstances, any further economicshock would be a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer andChancellor Rachel Reeves who have made growing theeconomy their number one mission. The relative obscurity of William McKinley means fewobservers have grasped the full implications of Trump’srejuvenation of his predecessor’s policies. Yet, Trump’shistoriographical allusions offer instructions on what theBritish government’s response should be now. Like today, by the 1890s Britain had suffered two decades ofstagnant growth. Concern at McKinley’s aggressive powerpolitics led to calls for constitutional and commercial reformto end Britain’s Long Depression and strengthen the UK’sability to compete. As this quarter’sManufacturing Outlooksurvey shows,manufacturers are feeling the impact of global trade turmoil inthe form of declining domestic and export orders. Recruitmentplans have been stopped, and some companies have startedcutting staff. The silver-lining is that firms are increasinginvestment in automation as a means of boosting productivity. Led by the industrialist Joseph Chamberlain, Birminghamand other cities in the West Midlands came to prominenceas manufacturing powerhouses on a wave of innovation. Likethe Labour government today, the Liberal MP Chamberlainchampioned an activist government and industrial policythat included devolving greater power to cities and localauthorities. He nationalised private utilities - including waterand railways - and pumped the proceeds into planningreform, house construction, infrastructure, and education. The past, as the saying goes, is prologue. History may notrepeat, but sometimes it certainly seems to rhyme. Britain isvulnerable in this rapidly evolving trade environment but alesson from the past is that backing manufacturing can helpinsulate us from the risks ahead. Manufacturing OutlookQuarter 1 2025 Headlines Make UK’s Q1 2025Manufacturing Outlookreport, in partnership with BDO, kicks off theyear with a sombre set of results for manufacturing performance. The impact of persistentlyweak domestic order books, now combined with a sharp slow-down in exports and theshock of the Autumn Budget announcements, has resulted in every core metric eithercontracting or slowing down. the string of poor performances of UK orders thathave teetered around the 0% balance for the last sixquarters. At least until now, the strength of exportorders shielded the manufact