市场展望——2024年4月18日
Market Perspectives April 18, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook In corn, the World Board increased both feed and ethanol demand by 25 million bushels thismonth. Given the strength of the U.S. economy, ethanol demand could show further strength. Both feedand fuel demands may have been short-changed by another 25 million bushels and if that demandemerges it could send corn’s old-crop stocks below 2.1 billion bushels. However, the focus is now on theupcoming U.S. planted area and yield trend. The Eastern Cornbelt (ECB) has had some recent rainsslowing its plantings while the Western Cornbelt (WCB) has been dryer. The pace of U.S. 2024 plantingwill be market factors with the ECB being slowed by numerous showers last week. Another hefty rainevent arrived on Tuesday for Iowa, Illinois and progressed east this week. Rain in the western Cornbeltwill slow the pace of planting for a few days but the rains are alleviating some of the concerns about topsoil moisture conditions in the western Cornbelt which were getting very dry. Reducing the U.S. 2024/25 corn output & U.S. carryover supplies back towards the 1.5 billion bushellevel will be needed for a dramatic improvement in corn’s longer-term price outlook. Corn’s cash basisrise into plus territory suggests that U.S. ethanol and feedlot demand are looking for supplies ahead ofthe U.S. planting season. South America’s crop conditions, particularly in Argentina and Brazil’s second crop corn and the U.S.plantings will be big price factors going forward. Brazil’s safrina corn output needs rain into May toachieve the USDA’s 124 mmt outlook. A recent rain across Mato Grasso, Gioia, MGDS & Parana after asparse couple weeks is a positive, but this year’s late double-crop corn seeding means moisture isneeded through mid-May for a strong output. The recent reports about Argentina’s corn issues aren’t aspositive about their 2024 output as initially forecast. This suggests their available world supplies couldbe curtailed. Mideast tensions could be an ongoing source of volatility if the conflict expands beyond the events oflast weekend. Ukraine’s recent export activity has rebounded back to 2023 grain corridor levels. This is apositive for them moving exports down the west side of the Black Sea. Overall, political tensions willcontinue to be a market factor across the world going forward. U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai said her office is pushing for Brazil to remove its 18 percent tariffon imports of U.S. ethanol; there is no duty on Brazilian ethanol entering the United States. Mexico’s surging demand for imported corn remains a contributor to