Market Summary Framework
1. Outlook
- USDA July WASDE Update:
- Increased domestic feed demand and corn export demand by 75 million bushels each.
- Raised imports by 5 million bushels, leading to a 145 million bushel drop in 2023/24 ending stocks.
- U.S. export sales to date were 15 million bushels below USDA's expectations.
- Domestic demand supported by increasing cattle on feed and hog feeding numbers.
- 2024/25 Production and Stocks:
- USDA kept the 181 bu/acre trendline yield and increased harvested acres.
- New crop corn demand increased by 75 million bushels in feed and 25 million bushels in exports.
- 2024/25 ending stocks dropped by 5 million bushels to 2.097 billion bushels.
- Soybean Outlook:
- USDA reduced Argentina's corn crop by 1 mmt, reducing world stocks by 3.26 mmt for October 2024.
- World Board only reduced old-crop imports and U.S. soybean output slightly.
- New-crop soybean stocks reduced by 20 million to 435 million bushels.
- Brazilian Crop Estimates:
- Conab raised 2nd crop corn output by 1.8 mmt, bringing overall output to 115.9 mmt.
- Conab left 2024 soybean estimate at 147.4 mmt.
- USDA Yield Expectations:
- 2024 U.S. production remains vulnerable for reduction due to higher yield expectations.
- 1 bu/ac U.S. bean yield decline could reduce soybean ending stocks by 85 million bushels.
- 2-3 bu/ac lower yield U.S. corn output would reduce ending stocks by 170 to 250 million bushels.
2. CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified in the provided text.
3. U.S. Weather/Crop Progress
- Highlights:
- 41% of corn is in the silking stage, 17 points higher than last week.
- Sorghum heading at 29%, barley heading at 76%, soybean blooming at 51%.
- Corn crop condition rating at 68% Good/Excellent.
- Outlook:
- Thunderstorms expected in the South with 2 to 6 inches of rainfall.
- Dry weather expected in the middle and upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast.
- Near- or below-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and central/southern Plains.
- Near- or above-normal rainfall across most of the country.
4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- DDGS Comments:
- USDA reported DDGS prices averaged $151 per short ton.
- DDGS/cash corn ratio at 1.04, DDGS/KC soybean meal ratio at 0.40.
- U.S. ethanol production up 4.9% week-over-week to 1,106 tbpd.
5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Ocean Freight Comments:
- U.S. forces shot down several drones of the Houthi terrorist organization.
- Vessel owners and operators avoiding the Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula.
- Baltic Panamax Index up 8.5%, Baltic Dry Index down 2.5%.
- Grain freight rates to Japan from the U.S. Center Gulf up $2.54 per metric ton.
6. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn:
- Net sales of 437,800 MT for 2023/2024, down 19% from the previous week.
- Exports of 1,103,800 MT, up 26% from the previous week.
- Barley:
- No net sales reported for 2024/2025, exports of 500 MT to Japan.
- Sorghum:
- Total net sales of 60,500 MT for 2023/2024, up 43% from the prior 4-week average.
- Exports of 60,500 MT, up 7% from the previous week.
