多哥国家气候与发展报告（执行摘要）

1Public Disclosure Authorized Key messages Climate Change is aSignificantThreat to Togo's DevelopmentTrajectory: •Climate change is already impactingtheTogolesepopulation, with more frequent and severe heatwaves, unpredictable rainfall,and growing coastal erosionimpacting livelihoodsand economic activity.•Impacts are projected to intensify,reaching an estimatedlossin income per capita levelsofup to12percentby2050, withmost severewelfareeffectsborne bypoorpopulations in rural areas and alongthecoastline.•Rising temperatures are expected to be a dominant driver of expected losses in welfare, followed byreduced yields for rainfed crops, slower human capital accumulation, and damages from more intenseurban, coastal and inland flooding. Structural Transformation is CrucialtoDeliver MoreInclusive andResilientGrowth: •Reachingupper-middle-income statusand reducingthe national poverty rate below 10 percentby 2050wouldrequire decisive efforts toraiseTogo’sgrowthpotentialto at least 6 percent annually,whichcouldprovechallenging in the face ofclimatechange.•Such outcomewould onlybe possibleifjobopportunitiesarescaled up inhigher productivity activitiesand sectors,ifhuman capitalisstrengthenedand labor force participation is increased,withafocus onmorevulnerablepopulations.•Thisaccelerated process ofstructural transformationcouldalready helpreduceprojectedclimatechangeimpactsbyup to20 percent,asasmaller share of the economy and theworkforcewould bedirectlyexposed. TurningClimate Challenges into Opportunities: •Amulti-prongedapproach aimed atscaling upclimate-smartagriculturesolutions,acceleratingaccessto clean and affordableenergy,investing ininclimate-resilientinfrastructureandurban developmentcould turnthreatsfromclimate change into new avenues for development.•Bettersupporting andprotecting human capital fromclimate shocksisalsocritical tostimulatefasterdevelopmentandmatchavailableskills with the demand of emerging sectors andtechnologies,includingthose neededto strengthen climate resilience. StrengtheningClimate Governance and Access to Finance: •Togoshoulddevelop an ambitious and well-coordinatednational strategyto address climate changeand better integrate climateobjectives andrisksacross public policies, including in public investmentanddebtmanagement,as well asrevenue mobilizationstrategies.•Building capacity to leveragenewclimatefinancing instrumentscouldopenopportunities for additionalpublicresources, while deepening the financial sectorand developinggreen credit, insurance, andequity financingsolutionswill becriticaltoleverageprivate sectorsolutions. Identifying PriorityInvestmentsforaClimate-ConsciousDevelopmentStrategy: •Totalinvestmentneedsidentified in thisreporttosupport faster, moreresilientandgreenergrowthareestimatedatabout US$13.9 billionin net present valueover the next 25 years,amounting to6.2percent of GDP annually until 2035,and 4.1 percentof GDPthereafter.•Beyond theirexpectedcontribution toadaptation and mitigation efforts,thesewouldhave significantdevelopment co-benefits, contributing tofastergrowthand poverty reduction.•Togocouldinitiallyprioritize low-cost, high-return investmentswitha strong role for the private sector,andboost allocative efficiency through governance reforms, while developing new revenuesourcesandimproving access to climate financing instrumentsover time. Climate change, structural transformation and the cost of inaction Togo has achieved significant development gains over the last decade, but progress is still held back byslowstructural transformation andalarge urban-rural divide.Togo was able to achieve relatively rapid and stablegrowth over the last 10 years, averaging about 5.2 percent(2.8percent in per capita terms), which wassupported by economic reforms as well as rising public and private investment rates(Figure1). However,limited headway was achieved in terms of structural transformation (i.e., the process of shifting jobs towardshigher productivity activities and sectors), thus holding back opportunities for faster, more inclusive, and moresustainable growth. Whilethe expansion of port activities in Lomé and the development of agro-business valuechains, manufacturing and logistics services have helped the country’s economic development in recent years,limited gains in agriculture productivity, slow progress with human capital accumulation, and remainingbarriers to private investment have prevented faster development. As a result, the national poverty rate hasbeen on downward trends over the last decade, reaching 43.8 percent in 2021, but with significant andwidening gaps between the capital Lomé and rural communities, particularly in the North where factors offragility and insecurity have escalated in recent years (Figure2). These factors have contributed to inwardmigration pressures in other areas of the country. Togo would need to deliver higher and more inclusive growth than observed historically to achieve ambitiousdevelopment outcomes by 2050.